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View Full Version : Curtains Hand - Early Position Push/No Push


runner4life7
12-20-2005, 05:02 AM
I am working on my pushes UTG but I think this is one I make easily. Converter doesnt like me.

Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 7
Seat 2: ISIAH33 ( $2440 )
Seat 3: AAwjrAA ( $905 )
Seat 6: ILuvCurtains ( $765 )
Seat 7: TWG8186 ( $480 )
Seat 8: billybutchc ( $1780 )
Seat 9: Kapiti ( $2445 )
Seat 10: Daliman ( $1185 )
Trny:18348382 Level:6
Blinds(100/200)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to ILuvCurtains [ Jd 7c ]
ILuvCurtains folds.

johnnybeef
12-20-2005, 05:04 AM
This is a trivial fold with 6 people to act behind you.

ZBTHorton
12-20-2005, 05:05 AM
I don't even think about pushing this.

runner4life7
12-20-2005, 05:19 AM
If you factor in the blinds taking 300 out of your 765 then I really think this is a push.

ZBTHorton
12-20-2005, 05:21 AM
You really think you have FE here? I don't think you have much, and your pushing with a hand that's 50/50 against a random hand.

runner4life7
12-20-2005, 05:23 AM
BB calls with any 2 its a push

curtains
12-20-2005, 05:36 AM
Pushing is not as terrible as everyone makes it out to be, as we do have some FE for sure. I still prefer folding though.

Shillx
12-20-2005, 05:37 AM
This is like a top 20% push. J7o isn't even close. Hell A7o is a fold here too IMO.

ZBTHorton
12-20-2005, 05:37 AM
[ QUOTE ]
BB calls with any 2 its a push

[/ QUOTE ]

So let me get this straight.

I'm pushing a hand. w/ 6 players behind. With admittedly very little fold equity. Hoping that the BB is ONLY(any other range puts us at significant dog) calling with any two, because then it will be a coin flip?

runner4life7
12-20-2005, 05:38 AM
Am i not using the equity modeling part of power tools right? These blinds are going to kill us and I think most people are missing that. I can see folding because there are 7 people, 5 handed this becomes super easy.

fluorescenthippo
12-20-2005, 05:39 AM
[ QUOTE ]
This is like a top 20% push. J7o isn't even close. Hell A7o is a fold here too IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

can you please back this up with sngpt or some type of math. i highly doubt this is correct.

johnnybeef
12-20-2005, 05:40 AM
I would rather shove J7 than A7 here.

edit: Well, maybe not. I don't know how common it is for people to call with A3 etc up there.

12-20-2005, 05:44 AM
You have more FE than you think here. If you fold now and give up the blinds you have 2BB, 1.5 BB if the blinds go up? THAT's no FE.

curtains
12-20-2005, 05:46 AM
Yes I agree that people are wrong to dismiss this out of hand. I actually suspect it's very close. Im unsure of how to calculate whats best though as there are a lot of weird factors like a super short stack and so on.

jeffraider
12-20-2005, 05:46 AM
[ QUOTE ]
Am i not using the equity modeling part of power tools right? These blinds are going to kill us and I think most people are missing that. I can see folding because there are 7 people, 5 handed this becomes super easy.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah the blinds are killing us it's a shame we never get dealt a hand or get a walk in the blinds, otherwise it wouldn't be such doomsday scenario!

fluorescenthippo
12-20-2005, 05:46 AM
k i just did it in sngpt. if you have A7o and they only call with better hands (22+, A7o) this is an easy push(+.4), and thats not factoring the blinds killing you. if they call with anything else its more +EV

ZBTHorton
12-20-2005, 05:48 AM
[ QUOTE ]
k i just did it in sngpt. if you have A7o and they only call with better hands (22+, A7o) this is an easy push(+.4), and thats not factoring the blinds killing you. if they call with anything else its more +EV

[/ QUOTE ]

What about J7o?

fluorescenthippo
12-20-2005, 05:52 AM
well i was responding to shillx. A7o has enough value alone to be a push but J7o depends on peoples calling ranges. so its hard to say but its definitely close

12-20-2005, 06:00 AM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Am i not using the equity modeling part of power tools right? These blinds are going to kill us and I think most people are missing that. I can see folding because there are 7 people, 5 handed this becomes super easy.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah the blinds are killing us it's a shame we never get dealt a hand or get a walk in the blinds, otherwise it wouldn't be such doomsday scenario!

[/ QUOTE ]

Thats a good point, although I doubt you'll get a walk in the blinds here.

Shillx
12-20-2005, 06:03 AM
[ QUOTE ]
k i just did it in sngpt. if you have A7o and they only call with better hands (22+, A7o) this is an easy push(+.4), and thats not factoring the blinds killing you. if they call with anything else its more +EV

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey. If they call with 22+/A7+, a push is worth just + .1%. You have to include suited hands in the calling range as well. It is worth + .2% if you push with 76s and they have the same calling range.

The key is that you have to push the right types of hands. Suited cards go way up in value. Connected cards go way up in value. Push hands that play well against suspected calling ranges. A7o doesn't play very well against tighter ranges though it is decent. Something like A9o would be a clear push in the hand presented. J7o plays horribly against tighter ranges and can be thrown away without blinking. I would much rather push 32s then J7o.

And yes the math in this spot has been done over and over again. It is easiest part of SNG theory to grasp. A lot of pushes are non-exploitable with 7 people still in play.

runner4life7
12-20-2005, 06:03 AM
Are you factoring in the blinds hitting you?

jeffraider
12-20-2005, 06:04 AM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Am i not using the equity modeling part of power tools right? These blinds are going to kill us and I think most people are missing that. I can see folding because there are 7 people, 5 handed this becomes super easy.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah the blinds are killing us it's a shame we never get dealt a hand or get a walk in the blinds, otherwise it wouldn't be such doomsday scenario!

[/ QUOTE ]

Thats a good point, although I doubt you'll get a walk in the blinds here.

[/ QUOTE ]


Yeah but the third scenario is that you win the pot when you make a hand after an unraised flop or you're checked to if the the SB opencompletes. So there's some good things that can happen in the blinds, too many people seem to think the sky is falling when they're nearly in the blinds.

ZBTHorton
12-20-2005, 06:04 AM
[ QUOTE ]
Are you factoring in the blinds hitting you?

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you thinking about the fact that your more likely than not going to have a better hand in the BB next hand?

runner4life7
12-20-2005, 06:07 AM
I dont know how to factor that in with math so no

fluorescenthippo
12-20-2005, 06:13 AM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
k i just did it in sngpt. if you have A7o and they only call with better hands (22+, A7o) this is an easy push(+.4), and thats not factoring the blinds killing you. if they call with anything else its more +EV

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey. If they call with 22+/A7+, a push is worth just + .1%. You have to include suited hands in the calling range as well. It is worth + .2% if you push with 76s and they have the same calling range.

The key is that you have to push the right types of hands. Suited cards go way up in value. Connected cards go way up in value. Push hands that play well against suspected calling ranges. A7o doesn't play very well against tighter ranges though it is decent. Something like A9o would be a clear push in the hand presented. J7o plays horribly against tighter ranges and can be thrown away without blinking. I would much rather push 32s then J7o.

[/ QUOTE ]

yea my bad. +.4 was something else. but the point is its still +EV. you make it sound like .1% is not enough considering we are about 75% likely to lose 1/4 our stack next hand. (with equity modeling of 75% this is +1.5% EV btw)

Roman
12-20-2005, 07:53 AM
I push this, the fact that BB is pretty short tips this over for me.

tigerite
12-20-2005, 08:34 AM
[ QUOTE ]
Pushing is not as terrible as everyone makes it out to be, as we do have some FE for sure. I still prefer folding though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Indeed. The ranges have to be in the region of 9%-12%. It's far from a terrible push, but quite a thin one. I might make it on some tables. The short stack is less of a worry as he's acting right after us, so in theory at least, should be less likely to call.

Of course the problem is the BB should call a lot, he only needs to be 36% favourite against our range. This for me probably tips it just to a fold.

Mr_J
12-20-2005, 08:37 AM
I agree pushing isn't terrible here. My move would probally be to fold and call a push in the bb next hand.

If I push here I will be called by a hand that beats mine. If I call someone from my bb, I could easily find myself calling an any 2 push from a desperate shortstack or loose large stack, which will be ok considering my odds.

Maybe it's also better for image. You are kind of expected to call from your bb, but pushing with J7 UTG shows you are capable of pushing trash.

I'm not sure you have much FE at all. Shortie in the bb, another shortie who will have an itchy trigger finger, and a couple of large stacks who might challenge a UTG push from a shortstack.

There's also always the chance that your BB is folded to you.

No matter what you do it's a $hitty situation.

tigerite
12-20-2005, 08:39 AM
Incidentally I push J7s here without even thinking about it. Unless the BB really knows what he's doing and is going to call me with a stupid amount. The ranges are 12-17%.

tigerite
12-20-2005, 08:58 AM
[ QUOTE ]
I would rather shove J7 than A7 here.

edit: Well, maybe not. I don't know how common it is for people to call with A3 etc up there.

[/ QUOTE ]

A7o push is unexploitable. J7o is certainly not.

12-20-2005, 09:29 AM
[ QUOTE ]
I agree pushing isn't terrible here. My move would probally be to fold and call a push in the bb next hand.

If I push here I will be called by a hand that beats mine. If I call someone from my bb, I could easily find myself calling an any 2 push from a desperate shortstack or loose large stack, which will be ok considering my odds.

Maybe it's also better for image. You are kind of expected to call from your bb, but pushing with J7 UTG shows you are capable of pushing trash.

I'm not sure you have much FE at all. Shortie in the bb, another shortie who will have an itchy trigger finger, and a couple of large stacks who might challenge a UTG push from a shortstack.

There's also always the chance that your BB is folded to you.

No matter what you do it's a $hitty situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

J7 is an average hand. Next hand you may have a worse one. You will be forced to call bets from hands that will on average be stronger than the hand you have. Saying the short stack will be pushing worse hands than normal is irrelevent as you have no choice other than to call regardless of your hand. They have a choice so will weed out the very worst hands that they will move with. Their range will always be better than yours.
By pushing now you have some FE, not much, but 100% more than you have leaving it until the next hand.
Push

The Yugoslavian
12-20-2005, 01:40 PM
curtains,

Do you push this if it's soooted?

Yugoslav
Who is serious...

curtains
12-20-2005, 04:43 PM
[ QUOTE ]
curtains,

Do you push this if it's soooted?

Yugoslav
Who is serious...

[/ QUOTE ]

definitely

Custer
12-20-2005, 05:02 PM
Without seeing the entire HH I can't be certain, but it seems to me that a mistake was likely made in a previous hand. A hand that should have been pushed that wasn't. Being UTG with less than 4 BBs in a never a situation you want to end up in. Folding sucks. Pushing sucks. I doubt it makes much difference. I'd love to see the last 8 or 9 hands of this tourny, see how curtains got into this predictament and get his comments. Can we do that?

moses

curtains
12-20-2005, 05:03 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Without seeing the entire HH I can't be certain, but it seems to me that a mistake was likely made in a previous hand. A hand that should have been pushed that wasn't. Being UTG with less than 4 BBs in a never a situation you want to end up in. Folding sucks. Pushing sucks. I doubt it makes much difference. I'd love to see the last 8 or 9 hands of this tourny, see how curtains got into this predictament and get his comments. Can we do that?

moses

[/ QUOTE ]

Kill me now. Like youve never had a situation where you just happen to have only 3.5x the BB. Nope, obviously I must have made mistakes earlier. I hate this argument when its used with low stakes player, please God don't use it on my games.

12-20-2005, 05:06 PM
oh... i don't know.... every made a +EV call that didn't work out so well and end up with a small stack?

seriously dude.

curtains
12-20-2005, 05:08 PM
btw I looked at the previous hand and found one probably small mistake, but its basically irrelevant. Everything else was just kind of normal. Quite honestly I get into a situation with under 5x the BB very often as does anyone else who plays well. It's not a death sentence, sometimes you just have to hope to get a good hand, as you never have a chance to steal or your hands are too weak and your steal equity is too small.

ilya
12-20-2005, 05:23 PM
[ QUOTE ]
This is like a top 20% push. J7o isn't even close. Hell A7o is a fold here too IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding A7o here would be horrible.

tigerite
12-20-2005, 05:34 PM
I was having a bad day today, even A7o isn't unexploitable. But they need to call above 27% to make it bad, which is just not happening.

ilya
12-20-2005, 05:53 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I was having a bad day today, even A7o isn't unexploitable. But they need to call above 27% to make it bad, which is just not happening.

[/ QUOTE ]

Who cares if it's exploitable or not, anyway. Even if it's clearly -$EV, I'm still pushing A7o here.

Custer
12-20-2005, 06:23 PM
" Kill me now. Like youve never had a situation where you just happen to have only 3.5x the BB. Nope, obviously I must have made mistakes earlier. I hate this argument when its used with low stakes player, please God don't use it on my games."

Obviously it happens. That's why I said "I can't be certain". You could have just lost a hand. You might have had a really bad hand every time it was folded to you. It might never have been folded to you. More likely, though, you passed on a slightly -EV push earlier in the round. At least that is often the case when I look back at tournies where I get into this spot. I think its better to take the slightly -EV push earlier in the round to keep yourself out of this horrible position where you're about to post your last bit of real FE in the BB. I think you disagree with me on this entire theory (that sometimes its right to pass up SMALL +EV situations and sometimes take small -EV situations , because the EV measurements occur in somewhat of a vacuum), and your numbers certainly force anyone to give credence and consideration to anything you have to say on the subject. So maybe part of the reason I'm challenging you on this is so that I can hear more of it.

I steadfastly disagree (for now) on the idea that the best way to play is to put every push/fold and call/fold situation into an ICM vacuum and always make the right play in that vacuum. I think it is sometimes right to pass up small +EV calls in order to ensure yourself the ability to make +EV raises down the road. I think it is sometimes right to make slightly -EV raises in order to ensure that your FE doesn't get blinded off so that you can make +EV raises down the road.

But I want badly to listen to more details of why you disagree.

moses

12-20-2005, 06:26 PM
[ QUOTE ]

I steadfastly disagree (for now) on the idea that the best way to play is to put every push/fold and call/fold situation into an ICM vacuum and always make the right play in that vacuum. I think it is sometimes right to pass up small +EV calls in order to ensure yourself the ability to make +EV raises down the road. I think it is sometimes right to make slightly -EV raises in order to ensure that your FE doesn't get blinded off so that you can make +EV raises down the road.
moses

[/ QUOTE ]

I've been wrestling with this for a while. I'd like to hear any experienced players comment on why this shouldn't be POTD.

miami32
12-20-2005, 06:31 PM
I don't think you push with this at all...

Custer
12-21-2005, 11:11 AM
Bump in case curtains didn't see this.

12-21-2005, 11:57 AM
I fold with so many people behind me.

But I'm a big chicken.

curtains
12-21-2005, 03:13 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Bump in case curtains didn't see this.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that in general people underestimate their chances when they have no fold equity. They don't give enough weight to the fact that they might be dealt a good hand and win, be dealt a mediocre hand and get lucky, or just happen to be forced allin in the BB and win over your opponents hand, which will usually happen around 30-40% in such situations, which is really not all that terrible.

Of course I would have loved for a great situation to have come up, but one didn't. Im not often in this position but I won't go out of my way and do crazy things to avoid it. btw one problem I have with the J7o push, is that immediately after the blinds we are back down to 700 again anyway. If Im going to risk my tournament life on a crap hand, it bothers me to have to pay back that money right away. I agree that this isn't a very mathematical way of thinking, but I suspect it makes some sense. By this I mean that when you wait for the BB and decide to play it, and you happen to win that hand, you don't have to immediately pay your blind again next hand, and instead have many free hands to pick up something.

Hendricks433
12-21-2005, 03:48 PM
I always feel like I suck or have a leak cause I get into this situation semi often with 5X the BB or less. I guess its normal but I never push a hand like this or close to this UTG or anything so maybe thats a leak. Im a sally.