Pot odds Question

[Zetack]

I'm still struggling to figure out pot odds. I understand when you calculate pot odds you don't take into account (0n your side of the equation) the money you have put into the pot on earlier betting rounds--that's the pot's money now. But what about an earlier bet or call on the current round of betting?

For example:
You are playing 5/10 limit hold em. After the turn you have an inside straight draw that will win the pot if it hits (no flush draw, the board is not paired). You are one off the button and it comes one bet to you (ten bucks to call) with 150 dollars in the pot including the calls in front of you.
My understanding is the inside straight draw is 11-1 against you, so the pot odds favor you calling with the pot laying you 15-1. Now the button raises. Say there's one call back to you. Now there's 190 dollars in the pot (including your first call).
Do you figure the your first call now as simply part of the pot so that you are calling ten bucks: i.e. the pot is now laying you 19-1, or do you calculate that you are now calling 20 dollars and need there to be over 220 dollars in the pot for the pot odds to be correct?

I hope that was clear.

Thanks,
--Zetack

[Dynasty]

The pot is laying you 19:1 so you call with your ~11:1 draw. You are only calling $10.

[BruceZ]

Do you figure the your first call now as simply part of the pot so that you are calling ten bucks: i.e. the pot is now laying you 19-1, or do you calculate that you are now calling 20 dollars and need there to be over 220 dollars in the pot for the pot odds to be correct?

You are getting 19-1 so you call. Pot odds are always based on what is in the pot right now vs. what you have to call. Money in the pot is the same no matter where it came from. Now if you knew before you called the first bet that the other guy was going to raise, then you would only be getting 9.5-1 before your first call (assuming the other players call). Although this is less than 11-1, you would probably still call since you're drawing to the nuts and you will win extra bets if you hit. These extra bets give you "implied odds".

[Zetack]

Ok, that's very helpfull to me. Although as a matter of theory (being mathmatically illiterate) its confusing to me. Because simply changing the position of the betting (and ignoring expected bets later (impied odds) changes how I should behave. (right?)

Example: Suppose its the exact same situation except the button and I change places. I'm the button and he is one off. So his raise is before I do anything. Then its 170 dollars to me (150 to him and his raise to twenty) but I have to bet twenty dolllars to call. Suppose I "know" that there will be the same one caller after me as in the original sitution. It's the same situation as before but for the position, but now instead of 19-1 I'm getting 18-2 and shouldn't bet. In both situations (and ignoring implied odds of bets on the river if I hit) on this round of betting there is 180 dollars of pot money and twenty dollars of my money, but simply because of position, in once case its correct to go to the river (because I put in two ten dollar bets) and in one case its not (because I put in one twenty dollar bet). That's confusing.

Still, it answers my question and I thank you guys. It makes it much clearer what I should do if the pot odds are correct when I bet, and then get raised....(even if, for the reason I said above, it doesn't seem quite logical heh heh).

--Zetack

[BruceZ]

It's perfectly logical, and the cases are the same if you knew the other guy was going to raise in the first situation. In the second case you know you have to put in 20 bucks to win 180, so you're only getting 9-1. In the first situation you called the first bet because you thought you were getting 15-1. If you knew the other guy was going to raise you would only be getting effective odds of 9-1. So it comes down to how sure you are of the pot being raised. The possibility of being raised makes your effective odds worse than your pot odds. This is often compensated by implied odds. If you have no implied odds, and you know the pot will be raised giving you effectively 9-1, then you should not call the first bet.

[Zetack]

Hmm, can you see that you've just flipped the confusing scenario on its head? Sure, if you knew you were going to be raised you be looking at less than 11-1 pot odds because you would ultimately have to put in two bets. So absent other factors (implied odds, more outs etc) you don't bet. BUT in my first scenario, you don't know the button is going to raise you, you call, he raises, and now that he has ACTUALLY bet it comes back to you and now your pot odds are correct to put in a second bet although now you KNOW he has actually raised when it would not be if you knew he was going to ahead of time.

This is not to argue the point with you about what the correct pot odds are its simply to point out why to me its intuitively confusing.

--Zetack

[BruceZ]

I guess I'm confused as to why you're confused. In all cases you look at how much you can win relative to how much you must pay to try and win it. Pot odds only tell you how much is in the pot when it is your turn to act relative to how much you have to call right now. They do not take into account future action. If you know what the future action will be then you should not be using pot odds to make your decision. You use effective odds based on total money you know you must invest relative to total money you expect to win. You don't always have perfect information about future action, so you use pot odds as a starting point. Your true odds will usually be less, and will sometimes be better than this. If you know someone will raise, and your effective odds will not be good enough to call both bets, then you fold. If you don't think he'll raise, then you can go by pot odds. Then if he does in fact raise, your money is now part of the pot and you recompute your odds based on the new pot size and the current bet you have to call. The pot will now be so big that a call may be a no-brainer even though had you known he was going to raise, the first call would have been wrong.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Keep it simple. Pot odds means how much of *your* money vs. how much of *the pot's* money. Once you called one bet and it was raised back to you, the first call you made isn't *your* money anymore. Pot odds is an "at the moment" calculation, it has nothing to do with conditions that existed prior to this specific action.

[Louie Landale]

You are getting 19:1 for your second call, pretty easy call.

The problem is that your FIRST call may have been actually 15:1 but effectively its worse. You need to take into account the chances that it WILL get raised or rereaise behind you. If there is a 40% chance it will get raised then the real cost of the call is 1.4bb, and you would compare that to the probably 19 bets you win; or 19:1.4 or 13.6:1 "pot odds" for the first call.

What if its 3-bet behind you? Even this fairly routine possibility makes it REAL hard to calculate your odds exactly. Make a good guess, go with it.

Getting paid off when you make it (implied odds) improve your pot odds. Most other things make it worse, including [] chances you are already drawing dead [] chances someone else improves more when you improve [] chance you hit and someone then outdraws you [] chance it gets raised or reraised behind you [] chance you hit, lose, and lose more money later [] yaddy yaddy.

If your call closes the action and you are drawing to the nuts then the pure pot-odds calculations apply quite nicely. Realistically you routinely need bigger pot odds to justify a call. A reasonable benchmark is to presume you need 1.5x pot odds to call, then try to adjust that for the favorability of your exact situation.

- Louie

[Homer]

I understand when you calculate pot odds you don't take into account (0n your side of the equation) the money you have put into the pot on earlier betting rounds--that's the pot's money now. But what about an earlier bet or call on the current round of betting?

It is irrelevant whether you put the money in the pot last Tuesday or during the current betting round. All that matters is that it is now in the pot, and thus no longer belongs to you.

My understanding is the inside straight draw is 11-1 against you, so the pot odds favor you calling with the pot laying you 15-1.

Correct, assuming you don't expect someone behind you to raise. If you are 100% certain that there will be a raise behind you, then you shouldn't call the first bet because you are effectively putting two bets into the pot at once, since you are absolutely certain that it will be raised behind you. Thus, your pot odds are actually 18:2 or 9:1 (assuming the original flop bettor just calls the raise), which may not be enough for the original call to be correct (depends on implied odds, which is a topic of discussion for another time). When determining the pot odds you are getting on a call, you don't always take the ratio of [the size of the pot]:[the amount you have to put into the pot]. When you are last to act, this will be the case, since there is no one left to act behind you. Most of the time, though, there will be a certain amount of uncertainty since there is always the possibility of a raise behind you, destroying your odds.

Now the button raises. Say there's one call back to you. Now there's 190 dollars in the pot(including your first call). Do you figure the your first call now as simply part of the pot so that you are calling ten bucks: i.e. the pot is now laying you 19-1, or do you calculate that you are now calling 20 dollars and need there to be over 220 dollars in the pot for the pot odds to be correct?

Your first call is now part of the pot. You put it in there and can't take it back. As I said, it doesn't matter how or when it got there, it's there now. You aren't calling $20 now. You've already put $10 in and now have to put $10 more in to see the turn card.

................

If you call the original bet getting 15:1, then call the raise getting 19:1, you have effectively made a -EV play over the flop betting round, since you have put 2 bets into a pot of 18 bets, and thus really only got 9:1 on your money. However, this doesn't mean that the second call is incorrect. The first call turned out to be incorrect due to the raise behind you, but you still must call the raise or you will be making an EVEN BIGGER MISTAKE.

I hope this clears things up a little. This is a confusing topic for many, and I am probably not the best person to be explaining it (try Theory of Poker /images/graemlins/grin.gif)

-- Homer