JTo steal hand

[DavidC]

paradise nlhe 100, 8 players

Folded to me in MP3 or CO. I raise to $3 with JTo. The SB and BB call me.

$9 in the pot, maybe $8.75 after rake.

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Flop: J98 suited, not my suit.

They check to me and I bet $8. SB calls BB folds.

On the turn a 2 hits, not suited.

He checks, I bet $18 in a $24 pot, he calls.

On the river an offsuit ace hits, and he checks. I check.

---

Unfortunately, no reads on villain.

[snowbank]

I shut down when he calls my flop bet.

[DavidC]

hmm... makes sense, I'm curious why though.

[FreakDaddy]

I'm checking the turn and calling the river. I think you win the most when ahead and lose the least when behind with that line in position. Plus you give yourself a chance to score on a draw which may stand up instead of possibbly being blown off it to a turn check/raise.

[snowbank]

hmm... makes sense, I'm curious why though.

With your turn bet, he's usually only going to call you when he's ahead, and he already called the flop. Especially when he has a good chance of having a flush draw(unless he's slow playing his already made flush), your straight draw doesn't mean all that much anymore.

The turn 2 changed nothing. He called on the flop, I really doubt he is folding on the turn with whatever he had, and him just calling tells you nothing. If he raises, you cant call as not only will you likely not have odds to hit your draw, many of your outs may very well be no good, or you may even be drawing dead. You can check behind and take the free card on the turn for several reasons: either hit your outs for free if they are good, give yourself a chance at a cheap showdown if you miss but your current hand is good/holds up, and keep the pot small. I'm not playing a big pot here regardless of whether I hit or not, as the board will be too scary (4-straight 3-flush) for him to pay off with something that I beat. He may pay off a value bet with a set, but would he be flat calling on that board with a set? He would surely raise the turn and lock you out of hitting your outs if he did decide to foolishy slowplay the set there, giving another reason to check turn.

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
With your turn bet, he's usually only going to call you when he's ahead, and he already called the flop. Especially when he has a good chance of having a flush draw(unless he's slow playing his already made flush), your straight draw doesn't mean all that much anymore.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, I'm not sure about this, but I think the fact that he may have a flush draw is an incentive for me to bet here, right? I think we're concerned about him having something huge like a flush draw as well as a made hand. Is that right?

Is his call on the flop indicative of a hand stronger than a one-card flush draw?

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm checking the turn and calling the river. I think you win the most when ahead and lose the least when behind with that line in position. Plus you give yourself a chance to score on a draw which may stand up instead of possibbly being blown off it to a turn check/raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm just not sure of how often I'll be ahead vs behind.

Also, it's a very good point that I don't want to lose my equity in the hand by exposing myself to a raise here. OOC, how much of a bet on the river can I call?

[Maulik]

DavidC,

If you're going to steal, make it $4, you're giving the blinds great odds to call and they won't fold most c-bets if they've hit anything.

$4,5 and the corresponding c-bet will be far more effective.

[Isura]

I would probably check the flop.

[FreakDaddy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm checking the turn and calling the river. I think you win the most when ahead and lose the least when behind with that line in position. Plus you give yourself a chance to score on a draw which may stand up instead of possibbly being blown off it to a turn check/raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm just not sure of how often I'll be ahead vs behind.

Also, it's a very good point that I don't want to lose my equity in the hand by exposing myself to a raise here. OOC, how much of a bet on the river can I call?

[/ QUOTE ]

David, if you're concerned about this, then why are you betting the turn after the flop call? I'm not understanding your reasoning. If you check the turn and your draw hits, you're probably good. If a non-heart falls on the river, you may also be good as villian may have stayed stubborn with some Ax draw over protecting his blind. It's more unlikely that they are calling out of the blind with some cort of SC's that indicates you're way behind, so calling a reasonable river bet - 1/2 pot is ok. They could have flopped the flush - and well, that sucks. You're only going to be good here a small percentage of the time though, but enough to be slightly EV.

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm checking the turn and calling the river. I think you win the most when ahead and lose the least when behind with that line in position. Plus you give yourself a chance to score on a draw which may stand up instead of possibbly being blown off it to a turn check/raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm kinda curious... how often does this have to be successful in order to break even?

[DavidC]

bump re: how often does it have to be successful in order to make pfr to 4-5bb worth it.