Deal or No Deal

[Duffman]

Anyone watching this right now? It's really bad. They might as well just give money away. Why can't they have game shows where people at least earn the money. Who Wants to be a Millionaire was pretty good in its prime, but this is just ridiculous.

Is this really a big hit around the world like NBC says?

[Macdaddy Warsaw]

I wanted to check this out, thanks for reminding me. Turned it on now.

[TomCollins]

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone watching this right now? It's really bad. They might as well just give money away. Why can't they have game shows where people at least earn the money. Who Wants to be a Millionaire was pretty good in its prime, but this is just ridiculous.

Is this really a big hit around the world like NBC says?

[/ QUOTE ]

This show was horrible when I watched it in Australia. This show is even worse in the US with the extra lights.

[Duffman]

I hope this greedy bitch goes home with $75 and gets evicted.

[Macdaddy Warsaw]

I hate this already.

[alekhine8]

They draw it out way too long. And she should have taken the damn $77,000 or whatever it was.

[Macdaddy Warsaw]

Wow...No dealing that was stupid...

EDIT: Either that or I don't understand how this game works.

[alekhine8]

Are there different games each time, or is it the same stupid theme with 30 cases? This is annoying the crap out of me, but I can't turn it off until I watch her get $75.

[TomCollins]

EV has it worth 110k now, banker offering her 90k. She'll take it though.

[Duffman]

This guy might just be the worst TV game show host in history.

[TomCollins]

[ QUOTE ]
Are there different games each time, or is it the same stupid theme with 30 cases? This is annoying the crap out of me, but I can't turn it off until I watch her get $75.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's always the same. In Australia, they had 30 contestants, and each would try to guess the amount in their own suitcase before opening it. They would win $1000 if they were right. That made it at least *somewhat* more exciting than this crap.

They are constantly offering her -ev and seeing how far she goes until she takes it? This is so dumb.

[KingDan]

"Yo dawg pound it"


Show sucks
I hope she loses.

[jnalpak]

[ QUOTE ]
EV has it worth 110k now, banker offering her 90k. She'll take it though.

[/ QUOTE ]

with just 500k left and the rest waaaay under there is no reason why she shouldnt be taking the 90k...

[TomCollins]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
EV has it worth 110k now, banker offering her 90k. She'll take it though.

[/ QUOTE ]

with just 500k left and the rest waaaay under there is no reason why she shouldnt be taking the 90k...

[/ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't take it. Giving up $20k equity? Please nigga.

[mostsmooth]

#20 was hot!!

jnal, except that if she knocks off one of the 4 cases way under 500k her offer goes through the roof, it just simply a question of marginal utility or whatever. F it I'm going the whole way with my case, screw your -ev offers!

They have to put people on the show to whom the money really matters. Seems like all the proposals are less than EV.

"This is not just a game of chance. You got odds here" - Howie Mandel

[jnalpak]

[ QUOTE ]
jnal, except that if she knocks off one of the 4 cases way under 500k her offer goes through the roof, it just simply a question of marginal utility or whatever. F it I'm going the whole way with my case, screw your -ev offers!

[/ QUOTE ]

my thought here is that these folks DONT EVEN OWN A HOME

TAKE THE MONEY AND RUN BF THESE CRAZY WHITE PEOPLE CHANGE THEIR MIND!!!!

[TomCollins]

[ QUOTE ]
They have to put people on the show to whom the money really matters. Seems like all the proposals are less than EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

138k = +EV. 137k is real value now.

138k is an instant take? right? wtf is going on? 4 cases a 500k a 50k what am I missing here?

oh [censored], these people are about to blow it. they should have listened to you jnal!

[alekhine8]

She's DOOMED! Don't pick 8!!

[TomCollins]

[ QUOTE ]
138k is an instant take? right? wtf is going on? 4 cases a 500k a 50k what am I missing here?

[/ QUOTE ]
$75 and $300 or something.

What a retard.

[dblgutshot]

So um...how does this show work?

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
They have to put people on the show to whom the money really matters. Seems like all the proposals are less than EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

138k = +EV. 137k is real value now.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I can't believe they're not taking it.

The crazy black people do not give in to the white people's demands and then they get 300 dollars apparently.

what a stupid decision turnig down the 138k

And comments about the host are well deserved, because he cuts away in the worst possible ways. It is way more painful than like Regis dragging it out as if the contestant got the question wrong when it was:

Which of the following is a color?

A. Rhino
B. Landrover
C. Yellow
D. Cookie

Regis: "Oh, I'm sorry, but yes you just won $800!"

[KingDan]

I want 8 to be 500k.


I think the announcer (Howie?) is a douche but I'm still watching doing something right.

I can't believe they didn't take it.

[jnalpak]

[ QUOTE ]
oh [censored], these people are about to blow it. they should have listened to you jnal!

[/ QUOTE ]

they dont own a home
which means that 80k is a lot of money for them but they dont take it, they are then offered 138k and THAT is like a lot of money to them...why not take and put it into some stocks /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Duffman]

I can't believe I've spent the past 50 minutes watching someone pick numbers.

EDIT: AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH AHAHAHAAHAH! It's all worth it now.

[TomCollins]

hAHAhShjsdhahahahahahahahahhahaahahahahah

BOOM! IT'S OVA!

[alekhine8]

[ QUOTE ]
She's DOOMED! Don't pick 8!!

[/ QUOTE ]

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!

(I feel kind of mean now..)

[jnalpak]

[ QUOTE ]
I can't believe I've spent the past 50 minutes watching someone pick numbers.

[/ QUOTE ]

50minuts wasted watching tv = -EV

WATCHING THEM LOSE 138K OF FREE MONEY.....CLASSSSSIC!!!!!

oh so shes happy she didnt win 500
SO WINNING 25K is better then 138k? WOW

[TomCollins]

[ QUOTE ]
BOOM! IT'S OVA!

[/ QUOTE ]

17k turned down lol. She better get $300

http://www.nbc.com/Deal_or_No_Deal/game/

So good.

[Duffman]

This show really makes me appreciate my education.

If all the contestants are going to be this stupid I'm not going to be able to watch this.

[KingDan]

I thought the game would be have some strategy where you trade numbers with others.

Show was kind of addicting though.

[TheIrishThug]

quite possibly the worst gameshow ever. they should have just remade let's make a deal or something

LOL I played the game on the site, I got it down to 2 cases, one has a million the other has 500. The offer? 355k! Screw them I'm going 50/50!

Edit: Results, I'm a lucksack.
http://img186.imageshack.us/img186/4375/dealthis1kc.jpg

[Sponger15SB]

Man I am good at this game!

http://img390.imageshack.us/img390/1120/nodeal6eo.jpg

[Sponger15SB]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
EV has it worth 110k now, banker offering her 90k. She'll take it though.

[/ QUOTE ]

with just 500k left and the rest waaaay under there is no reason why she shouldnt be taking the 90k...

[/ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't take it. Giving up $20k equity? Please nigga.

[/ QUOTE ]

You know that almost every offer is -EV, right?

[TomCollins]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
EV has it worth 110k now, banker offering her 90k. She'll take it though.

[/ QUOTE ]

with just 500k left and the rest waaaay under there is no reason why she shouldnt be taking the 90k...

[/ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't take it. Giving up $20k equity? Please nigga.

[/ QUOTE ]

You know that almost every offer is -EV, right?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not always though. I think this one is:
http://img372.imageshack.us/img372/6204/dealnodeal5an.png

This show is to Millionaire what Are You Hot or Not was to American Idol. I'm dumber for having watched it. I'm sure it will be a huge success.

Gary

[shant]

This game is awesome. Why don't you guys like to watch it? It gets straight to really degenerate gambling and you get to see people say things like "I KNEW IT WAS IN THAT CASE!" and be results oriented at the end. Plus the whole audience going "CMOOONNNNN!!!" is awesome.

[astroglide]

the promos for this show were terrible. all it said was "WILL IT BE...DEAL...OR NO DEAL?" i have seen several commercials for it and i have no [censored] idea what it's about, so i didn't record it.

[TimTimSalabim]

EV is one consideration, but hardly the most important. If someone offered to give me $2 million or flip a coin for either $5 or $5 million, I wouldn't have to think about it.

[chuddo]

clearly i need to become a pro deal or no deal player:

http://i10.photobucket.com/albums/a129/chuddo/deal.jpg

look at the dumb deal they offer when i am down to 750k and 1M.

methinks the calculator is a bit screwy.

"hmm..im guaranteed either 750k or 1mil...but i could save myself the hastle of opening another briefcase for 680k.... ill take it!"

[ QUOTE ]
If all the contestants are going to be this stupid I'm not going to be able to watch this.

[/ QUOTE ]

If all the contestants are this stupid I'm going to be watching this show every week. I saw the thread on here (yay for being on the West Coast) and recorded it solely for that reason...wow. The look on her face when she picked the $500k? And even better, the look on her husband's face, since he told her to pick it?? Priceless.

[offTopic]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If all the contestants are going to be this stupid I'm not going to be able to watch this.

[/ QUOTE ]

If all the contestants are this stupid I'm going to be watching this show every week. I saw the thread on here (yay for being on the West Coast) and recorded it solely for that reason...wow. The look on her face when she picked the $500k? And even better, the look on her soon-to-be ex-husband's face, since he told her to pick it?? Priceless.

[/ QUOTE ]

[skiier04]

this guys gonna win 1 cent.

[Russ McGinley]

PIZOWNERED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11

"I think his luck is gonna turn!"

This show is funny.

[Homer]

Damn, and I was just about to start a thread on this. What a horrible show. I want to kill each and every one of these people.

Probably offered around $150K or so here... he's gotta take this.

[skiier04]

[ QUOTE ]
Probably offered around $150K or so here... he's gotta take this.

[/ QUOTE ]

thats what I was thinking.

[Homer]

[ QUOTE ]
Probably offered around $150K or so here... he's gotta take this.

[/ QUOTE ]

No way, his gf is feeling it.

I missed this last night, but damn, this show sucks. It's so obvious they don't want anyone to ever take the deal.

Howie is a crappy game show host. His stand-up in the 80s was awesome, but then he decided to stop being funny.

[skiier04]

99k what a horrible deal.

[Homer]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Probably offered around $150K or so here... he's gotta take this.

[/ QUOTE ]

No way, his gf is feeling it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pffft...99K. Gambool!

[alekhine8]

$99k? Is the 'banker' a moron? Seriously?

[skiier04]

he is in a roll... should get around 125k now i would think

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Probably offered around $150K or so here... he's gotta take this.

[/ QUOTE ]

No way, his gf is feeling it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pffft...99K. Gambool!

[/ QUOTE ]

Got it. Watch, here come $130K.

[Homer]

[ QUOTE ]
he is in a roll... should get around 125k now i would think

[/ QUOTE ]

They need to offer 150 now to make it an interesting decision...

[skiier04]

162k i take the deal.

[Homer]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
he is in a roll... should get around 125k now i would think

[/ QUOTE ]

They need to offer 150 now to make it an interesting decision...

[/ QUOTE ]

162 = take. ev around 240.

[ QUOTE ]
162k i take the deal.

[/ QUOTE ]

Take it, dummy.

[skiier04]

kljaflhag


what a luckbox

Unlucky, my ass.

[Russ McGinley]

This guy is a lucksack. And nice dance by the family.

[pudley4]

this guy is the luckiest [censored] ever. I bet he chases gutshots on Party Poker and hits against me all day long

[skiier04]

240k hes gotta take it.

[Russ McGinley]

240k? He's almost guaranteed 300k. What a ghey deal.

[MaxPower]

Every offer from the banker so far is way below EV.

[Homer]

[ QUOTE ]
240k hes gotta take it.

[/ QUOTE ]

he wont

[Homer]

[ QUOTE ]
240k? He's almost guaranteed 300k. What a ghey deal.

[/ QUOTE ]

Uhh, 1/4 he wins [censored].

[Russ McGinley]

He'll take the deal if this case isn't 10k.

[skiier04]

owned

[pudley4]

500k ouch

he's taking the deal now

[Homer]

[ QUOTE ]
He'll take the deal if this case isn't 10k.

[/ QUOTE ]

OMG, he should have dealed lololzzz. The odds were totally not in his favor.

[Russ McGinley]

Quiet table coach!

[adamstewart]

I must admit, I kinda like this show.


/images/graemlins/crazy.gif



Adam

[pudley4]

Homer, I just remembered I never heard how you did on your gameshow appearance.

[Homer]

[ QUOTE ]
Homer, I just remembered I never heard how you did on your gameshow appearance.

[/ QUOTE ]

Worse than this guy is going to do. At best I won 1/10 as much. I suck.

[pudley4]

/images/graemlins/frown.gif

[skiier04]

never heard about this, what show were you on?

[adamstewart]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
240k hes gotta take it.

[/ QUOTE ]

he wont

[/ QUOTE ]



I think I'd have taken it.


What do you others say:

[Homer]

[ QUOTE ]
:(

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't worry, I'll be okay. I'm a slightly better than mediocre player in the game we shall not mention.

[Homer]

189 = easy take for me

ev = 270

[Homer]

[ QUOTE ]
never heard about this, what show were you on?

[/ QUOTE ]

wwtbam

[skiier04]

they really dont want him to take the deal

[ QUOTE ]
189 = easy take for me

ev = 270

[/ QUOTE ]

He's gotta take this.

[Homer]

Result-oriented thinking woooooooo

[mostsmooth]

"you made a great deal!"?
he did?
the next offer is either 150k, 200k, or 350k. how did he make a great deal?

[Homer]

[ QUOTE ]
"you made a great deal!"?
he did?
the next offer is either 150k, 200k, or 350k. how did he make a great deal?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think he'd get anywhere near 150K if he picked the 400K. With 300K and 10K left, they'd probably offer 120K or so.

[Russ McGinley]

Strug-a-ling. This woman looked like she was going to faint and now she keeps picking numbers with a bunch of zeroes behind them.

[mostsmooth]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
"you made a great deal!"?
he did?
the next offer is either 150k, 200k, or 350k. how did he make a great deal?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think he'd get anywhere near 150K if he picked the 400K. With 300K and 10K left, they'd probably offer 120K or so.

[/ QUOTE ]
im just going by what they did yesterday when there was two cases left, split down the middle

[Homer]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
"you made a great deal!"?
he did?
the next offer is either 150k, 200k, or 350k. how did he make a great deal?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think he'd get anywhere near 150K if he picked the 400K. With 300K and 10K left, they'd probably offer 120K or so.

[/ QUOTE ]
im just going by what they did yesterday when there was two cases left, split down the middle

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, I didn't watch yesterday. If the lowest they'd offer is 150k, then turning down the 190k is a pretty easy choice.

"I'm thinkin' that's a lot of cases."

"Right."

Howie's such a great host, man. Listen closely and you can tell half the stuff you hear from Howie was re-recorded after the fact.

[Russ McGinley]

[ QUOTE ]
"I'm thinkin' that's a lot of cases."

"Right."

Howie's such a great host, man. Listen closely and you can tell half the stuff you hear from Howie was re-recorded after the fact.

[/ QUOTE ]

A lot of shows do this. Its always obvious.

[pudley4]

How can such a dumb game show be so engrossing?

[adamstewart]

Show's over for today.

She has to keep going (no deal).

She's offered 76K, but there's a 1 in 4 chance she'll get at least 500k (500K or 1M).


Adam

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
"I'm thinkin' that's a lot of cases."

"Right."

Howie's such a great host, man. Listen closely and you can tell half the stuff you hear from Howie was re-recorded after the fact.

[/ QUOTE ]

A lot of shows do this. Its always obvious.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know a lot of shows do. Seemed more obvious to me here. Thanks, though.

[Wes ManTooth]

[ QUOTE ]
Damn, and I was just about to start a thread on this. What a horrible show. I want to kill each and every one of these people.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Sponger15SB]

This show is gay as [censored]. If I was on this show I'd try and be the most uninterested and bored [censored] ever just to be a dick. Also, I'd choose 1 as my case and then choose 2,3,4,5,6, etc.

[ QUOTE ]
EV is one consideration, but hardly the most important. If someone offered to give me $2 million or flip a coin for either $5 or $5 million, I wouldn't have to think about it.

[/ QUOTE ]
Exactly. This game is easy to play by the numbers. But it's also good comparison to playing above your bankroll in poker limits. If I was on the game the first offer I had over 10grand or so I'd take it just because I'm flat ass broke, no matter what the EV. And unless these people are millionares there's NO reason they should be rejecting these 100k+ offers even if it's -EV.

There's a cardplayer article that talks about this, but it's from the opposite side... that people gamble with their losses, but don't with sure gains. they fail to mention how much this 3,000 would affect the people surveyed.
CP Link (http://www.cardplayer.com/poker_magazine/archives/showarticle.php?a_id=15067&m_id=65575)
[ QUOTE ]
Understanding Poker Errors Through Prospect Theory — Part II
With Co-author Rachel Croson
by Barry Tanenbaum

...
Asymmetric risk preferences: When it comes to gains, people are risk-averse. That is, when they are given the chance to win $100 for sure or flip a coin for $200, they tend to choose the sure win. However, when it comes to losses, individuals are risk-loving. That is, they prefer a fifty-fifty chance of losing $200 to a sure loss of $100. In a more striking example, researchers asked 95 subjects which they would prefer:

A. Winning $3,000 for sure

B. Winning $4,000 with an 80 percent chance
Of course, the expected value (EV) of B is higher than the expected value of A ($3,200 is larger than $3,000), yet 80 percent of the subjects chose option A. Could it be that these subjects just did not like to gamble? Not really, because later in the experiment, these same subjects were offered the following choice:

C. Losing $3,000 for sure

D. Losing $4,000 with an 80 percent chance

Here, the expected value of C is higher than the expected value of D (-$3,000 is larger than -$3,200), yet 92 percent of the subjects chose option D. Now these same subjects are risk-loving, willing to sacrifice the $200 of expected value in order to take the gamble. In other words, people would rather take a sure profit than a good gamble, but would rather take a bad gamble than a sure loss.

To seasoned gamblers, this is a very surprising result, in that the vast majority chose the proposition with the worse EV each time. However, at the poker table we see this behavior all the time, as the following examples show.

...


[/ QUOTE ]

edit: I don't know if this is a good example, but say you have worked hard for a long time to build your bankroll to the limit you want to play at. and one day you go on and somehow you accidently join the highest NL game where your whole bankroll is on the line. 1st hand--you're in the BB with AA, UTG goes all in and it's folded around to you, do you call with your entire bankroll even though it's major +EV? hell no, you get the [censored] out.

[Sponger15SB]

[ QUOTE ]
If I was on the game the first offer I had over 10grand or so I'd take it just because I'm flat ass broke, no matter what the EV. And unless these people are millionares there's NO reason they should be rejecting these 100k+ offers even if it's -EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

wow.

[ QUOTE ]

wow.

[/ QUOTE ]

does that suprise you? do you really think these people should be gambling away these offers no matter how much the money would affect they're lifestyle?

[VarlosZ]

[ QUOTE ]
If I was on the game the first offer I had over 10grand or so I'd take it just because I'm flat ass broke, no matter what the EV. And unless these people are millionares there's NO reason they should be rejecting these 100k+ offers even if it's -EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

Play the online game at nbc.com a few times, and you'll see how crazy this approach is. Your EV at the very start is over $130,000 (I worked it out, but forget the exact number). With the low offers they give you, there's no way you should accept anything until there are, say, 8 suitcases left. It's extremely unlikely that you'll wind up with less than $10K if you stop gambling around that time, and even then you'll usually be in a position to keep going for a little bit while getting odds you can't pass up and a variance you can stomach.

[lastchance]

Online gives you an idea the algorithm the bank uses to figure out their deal, and after a while, the correct strategy seems to be to whittle down to eight, and you get about 50% of EV around there. At 5, it's about 60%. At 4, it becomes about 70% of EV(going all the way), and at 3, it's about 90% of EV(going all the way).

The 4 to 3 jump is immense.

This game would be really nice to play compared to other game shows, where your EV looks to be about $20,000, max. With this, you're looking at an average EV of $100,000.

[tpir90036]

I actually like this show just for trying to figure out what the people are thinking and what they are going to do.

I am curious as to whether there is an algorithm for the "deals" they offer or if the bank sometimes [censored] with people. Like if it's down to $0.01 and $1,000,000 offer them something like $100K. Or if the bank knows the contents and tries to drive them towards a decision... or bluff!

Even better would be investigating their lives and coming up with evil amounts:

"OK, Tom... your daughter just got accpeted to college. Her 4-year education at Maryland is going to cost you $65,235. The bank's offer is $65,235."

[tpir90036]

[ QUOTE ]
If I was on the game the first offer I had over 10grand or so I'd take it just because I'm flat ass broke, no matter what the EV. And unless these people are millionares there's NO reason they should be rejecting these 100k+ offers even if it's -EV.

[/ QUOTE ]
the problem is that if you are doing well there is a good chance your next deal is going to be lower than the one you currently have. so taking the deal earlier might be a good play if you are going to get nervous and take a worse one later on. your EV for the current deal is kind of moot if you aren't going to go all the way and just settle for a lower (and still -EV) play at the end.

The calculator for the online version is screwy. When you're down to three cases left, they almost always make an offer above EV.

[tpir90036]

[ QUOTE ]
The calculator for the online version is screwy. When you're down to three cases left, they almost always make an offer above EV.

[/ QUOTE ]
yeah. it's safe to say the online calculator was just made up by some web person who wrote the flash thing.

i wish they would elaborate on what the banker is doing. i think it would be better if we knew he was [censored] with people and not just plugging numbers into something. or if we knew that he knew which case we had.

[moose47]

Is anybody else really hoping she just picked the million?

dude this guy sucks, picking the 750k and 1 million cases early are very bad strategy.

[lastchance]

Heh, yeah.

The early bets seem huge -EV though. They're offering you like 10% of total prize pool. You should be able to wait for a 50-70% of prize pool package.

I'm probably going for about 80%/50+k.

I'd love to play this game, obviously since the initial ev is like 130k, but also because it's such a no brainer to gambol. Gotta love a game where the by far superior strategy is to just go for it.

[moose47]

Well, we found out that with 1 million and a small amount left the offer is 500k. I was hoping they would make it lower. I don't see anyone passing that up.

[moose47]

I think this guy is leaving with $5

[Macdaddy Warsaw]

This guy needed to take the loss of 3,000 in EV it sounds like, but I guess it worked out for him.

[lastchance]

Going for it here is terrible. Marginal utility of 500k 100% of the time > 1 million half of the time.

$3k dollars in terms of EV here is a very easy price to pay.

I wonder if the game show wants people to go for it instead of playing it safe.

[Macdaddy Warsaw]

Wow...Poker player makes sense and then guy decides to do the opposite. GENIUS!

[adamstewart]

THIS GUY'S A DAMN FOOL.


... what a fish. A lucky fish.


Adam

[moose47]

Hahahahaha. This is going to be great!

LOL THIS IS SO RIDICULOUS

[adamstewart]

[ QUOTE ]
THIS GUY'S A DAMN FOOL.


... what a fish. A lucky fish.


Adam

[/ QUOTE ]



LOL, after this was posted, he says, "I'm no damn fool"

[Macdaddy Warsaw]

If he doesn't take this, I hope he gets $50.

[adamstewart]

[ QUOTE ]
If he doesn't take this, I hope he gets $50.

[/ QUOTE ]


Your wish would have come true.


Still, this guy was a complete idiot. He should have quit at the $50K.


Adam

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
THIS GUY'S A DAMN FOOL.


... what a fish. A lucky fish.


Adam

[/ QUOTE ]



LOL, after this was posted, he says, "I'm no damn fool"

[/ QUOTE ]
haha I saw that

man I would have paid 10k just to see him go for it and end up with 50 bucks.

[adamstewart]

[ QUOTE ]
man I would have paid 10k just to see him go for it and end up with 50 bucks.

[/ QUOTE ]


I call your bluff.



Adam

Best of luck arranging this situation to catch my bluff.

Hopefully,

Perrier

[ QUOTE ]

Play the online game at nbc.com a few times, and you'll see how crazy this approach is. Your EV at the very start is over $130,000 (I worked it out, but forget the exact number). With the low offers they give you, there's no way you should accept anything until there are, say, 8 suitcases left. It's extremely unlikely that you'll wind up with less than $10K if you stop gambling around that time, and even then you'll usually be in a position to keep going for a little bit while getting odds you can't pass up and a variance you can stomach.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I see your point. I exaggerated on my part for the 10k... but near the end when some of these people are trying to decide for the deals >100k, It comes into play. I was just trying to make the point that you can't fault someone for making the "incorrect" choice, if the money would mean that much to them.

anyways...I think they're going to spice this game up or it won't be around long. any ideas?

[krazyace5]

Every time you pick a number the chick takes her top off?

[Macdaddy Warsaw]

I think the game has two more shows and that's it. After that, I think it's about whether or not it gets picked up. I doubt that it does, but I wouldn't be surprised if they run it 2 - 4 weeks out of every year.

[ QUOTE ]
Every time you pick a number the chick takes her top off?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's NBC. I don't see why this can't happen, since it already did.

[lastchance]

But it's fun to mock people who make -EV bets.

[Ogre]

i hate how he tries to be tricky leading into the commercials
i hate how long the commercials are
i hate how stupid the contestants are
i hate the host
i hate the whole concept of the game
if i was on the show i would just take the box and wouldnt take some -ev deal
i cant figure out why i still watch this stupid show

[Macdaddy Warsaw]

You wouldn't lose $1,000 to reduce variance?

[1800GAMBLER]

the main factor for the algorithm is the variance between your decisions. the higher the variance the lower the ev. finish with $1m and $1 as your last boxes and they'll give you some real [censored] deals. awesome algorithm.

edit: for the online game.

[lastchance]

For the online game, they almost always give you 90+% of prize pool when it gets down to 3 and will be very quick to shaft you in a situation like the above.

Personally, if I was ever to play this game, I take a deal at 3 90% of the time, knowing that getting shafted the next round would suck.

[DCIAce]

I'm fantastic at this game. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

http://img530.imageshack.us/img530/6536/deal6cw.jpg

[1800GAMBLER]

i just had a ton of times in which i was not offered 90% (more like 70%) of the EV because my variance was huge.

as i said above, the variance seems to be the main factor.

[lastchance]

I'm talking when it comes down to 3. I've gotten a deal for 90% of the prize pool almost every time I've played it.

[AceHigh]

[ QUOTE ]
This guy might just be the worst TV game show host in history.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's Howie Mandel, and you are right he is the worst actor and comedian and now game show host in history. Sort of a triple crown of worsts.

[Dudd]

I'm disappointed, their online version loads to 100% for me, then stalls. Anyone else have that happen?

[moose47]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm disappointed, their online version loads to 100% for me, then stalls. Anyone else have that happen?

[/ QUOTE ]

It will work fine..........


....Right after this commercial break!

[mostsmooth]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm disappointed, their online version loads to 100% for me, then stalls. Anyone else have that happen?

[/ QUOTE ]
i had this problem, then disabled ad block and it worked fine

[NutzyClutz]

Show was interesting diversion. Watched at Tropicana AC with subtitles.

[skiier04]

[Yeti]

About $350k.

Saw some action last night...loved when the $125K or so offer came, and the mom said something like "that's four years of living wages, and you'd be throwing it away! Take the deal!" Dad says "yeah, but 8 is our lucky number!" Then mom said "Right! No deal!" Risk aversion be damned!

ScottieK

[samjjones]

[ QUOTE ]
Show was interesting diversion. Watched at Tropicana AC with subtitles.

[/ QUOTE ]
They have subtitles for ebonics?

Youve got to be kidding me. I doubt most people here are rich. $200k is life changing for me. If 1¢ and $1M were left it would take me .04 seconds to take the $200k. Screw EV. Would you bet on a flip of a coin if you were offered 4:1 BUT you had to bet a minimum of $200k? I think not.

[Russ McGinley]

Bump for tonight's show.

[lastchance]

Two different situations there. Losing 200k hurts a lot more than going for it in that situation because you should still have stuff to fall back on.

Oh, and fat black guy made stupid decisions last night, first passing up $50k as it's neutral EV, and then passing up a +$EV 67k, only to make a -EV deal the next round.

Horrible.

[Russ McGinley]

They are really going overboard with all of Howie's voiceovers. They throw one in like every 10 seconds.

[Vavavoom]

http://img508.imageshack.us/img508/3222/deal25ms.png (http://imageshack.us)

I guess good.....My original pick was the Mill-ski !!

Right, How to apply.....

[moose47]

I'm guessing the offer is 150k and she takes it.

[mostsmooth]

am i stupid or are they going real low with their offers tonight?

[mostsmooth]

199? shouldnt it be more like 300?

[Russ McGinley]

I think she takes this deal. Although I enjoy the priest continually saying to not take it.

GAMBOOOOOOOOOL

[Macdaddy Warsaw]

I am hot for teacher.

[Homer]

[ QUOTE ]
I am hot for teacher.

[/ QUOTE ]

The only thing I don't like is that she claps like a seal.

[Homer]

doh

[Russ McGinley]

She's an idiot if she doesn't take this deal.

[moose47]

She has to stop now.

[Homer]

take it moran

[mostsmooth]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I am hot for teacher.

[/ QUOTE ]

The only thing I don't like is that she claps like a seal.

[/ QUOTE ]
i wonder if she barks like a dog

[Homer]

[ QUOTE ]
take it moran

[/ QUOTE ]

omg wat a grate deal she wouldve won only 200!

[skiier04]

call me racist, but I dont like this woman.

[AlphaWice]

I think a very good strategy is to keep refusing deals, as long as there are atleast 2 high $ cases. You can have some $ to fall back on if you spike a large case, and you will increase your EV if you dont spike the large cases. (EV as measured by the % of the remaining money they offer)

[Russ McGinley]

[ QUOTE ]
call me racist, but I dont like this woman.

[/ QUOTE ]

She's good at picking high numbers.

[New001]

[ QUOTE ]
I think a very good strategy is to keep refusing deals, as long as there are atleast 2 high $ cases. You can have some $ to fall back on if you spike a large case, and you will increase your EV if you dont spike the large cases. (EV as measured by the % of the remaining money they offer)

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly what I've decided too. I'm much more willing to take a slightly -EV deal if I've only got 1 big case left and a couple or three low ones.

[Sponger15SB]

god this show is the most long and drawnout [censored] i've ever seen. GET IT OVER WITH ALREADY

Time to break my poll cherry, but I'm very interested on this:

[jacki]

[ QUOTE ]
Would you pay $50,000 to play this game?

[/ QUOTE ]
I voted no, because I couldn't afford to lose that much.
But $25,000? I'd probably scrap the money together.

[YourFoxyGrandma]

ROR is way too high.

[Thythe]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Would you pay $50,000 to play this game?

[/ QUOTE ]
I voted no, because I couldn't afford to lose that much.
But $25,000? I'd probably scrap the money together.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it would be useful to figure out what the probability of being offered at least $50,000 at some point in the game was to answer this question. I would imagine it's a pretty high probability.

[Russ McGinley]

LOLLERBUMP

[moose47]

She is so screwed

[Russ McGinley]

She should just go all the way and open whatever case she picked. 75k is the most she can make now.

[Russ McGinley]

These people suck at this game. Seriously, 300k, 1m, 500k in first three picks.

[Macdaddy Warsaw]

This girl is cute, and she's totally getting owned. I hope she nabs 750k.

EDIT: By cute, I mean, total MILF.

[valenzuela]

a cousin of mine won 10k on that show( chilean version is more modest), btw its *always* +EV to say " no deal". I hate how people take soooooo painfully long, just choose soemthing quickly!!!

[moose47]

It's rigged tonight.

[Russ McGinley]

"Stick it to the dealer!"

OOOOOOHHHHHHHHHH SNAP!

[moose47]

I missed the end. What did she end up with?

[Macdaddy Warsaw]

She got 75,000 after being down to 75,000 and 100,000 and declining 85,000.

Interestingly enough, they offered her the chance to switch cases at the end. She declined and got 75,000. I thought it would be the same as the Let's Make a Deal dilemma and switching would always be better.

Is that wrong?

[WackityWhiz]

I did the text message entry with number 15 for the first contestant. I sent the text "59595;15" and then I got a text message back that said:

Deal or No Deal: Before your vote counts you must reply to this message with Y. 49 cents per entry then you can vote again blah blah blah.

Well I only read the part that said "you must reply to this message" then I stopped reading. So I sent a text back that said "Ship It!"

I just received a text message from them saying "DOND: We're sorry, we didn't recognize your response. Please reply with Y to confirm your entry, billed at $.49"

yesss, saved myself 49 cents. SHIP IT

-WW

[TeeJayORTj]

[WackityWhiz]

[ QUOTE ]
How much would the bank have to offer you if the final two cases had .01 and 1 million dollars respectivly for you to take their offer?

[/ QUOTE ]

well, if I were to choose, I'd definately accept an offer of 100-200k.

They would offer like 450-475k and I would take that in a heartbeat.

That would be a nice ***** roll /images/graemlins/grin.gif

-WW

[moose47]

[ QUOTE ]
Interestingly enough, they offered her the chance to switch cases at the end. She declined and got 75,000. I thought it would be the same as the Let's Make a Deal dilemma and switching would always be better.

[/ QUOTE ]

Different situation. On Let's Make a Deal, Monty Hall knew which door the prize was behind so the first one he opened never contained the prize. Here all the selections are completely random so switching would make no difference.

[moose47]

I would take 100k instantly. Maybe less.

[Macdaddy Warsaw]

Duh, thanks.

[lastchance]

I can't take less than 50% of prize pool as a HS student. Just can't bring myself to do it.

[WackityWhiz]

http://img455.imageshack.us/img455/8818/deal18bi.jpg

[WackityWhiz]

5 for deal, 0 for no deal...
http://img523.imageshack.us/img523/8939/deal27bq.jpg

it woulda been a merry christmas!

[TomCollins]

[ QUOTE ]
5 for deal, 0 for no deal...
http://img523.imageshack.us/img523/8939/deal27bq.jpg

it woulda been a merry christmas!

[/ QUOTE ]

Results Oriented! GAMBOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL!

[ClaytonN]

Pretty obv in a vacuum that it's no deal, but 350k is going to change just about everyone's life in OOT

[Russ McGinley]

IRL you take this deal and laugh at the banker because you'd have taken 100k less. On the innernets, GAMBOOL!

[WackityWhiz]

Do you GAMBOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL here? /images/graemlins/grin.gif

http://img391.imageshack.us/img391/4104/deal33ka.jpg

-WW

[moose47]

Go for it. The banker knows they screwed up and there is a second million out there.