($33) Bubble: AQ in SB vs. PFR from button

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) internettexasholdem.com (http://www.internettexasholdem.com)

UTG (t2565)
Button (t2250)
Hero (t1645)
BB (t1540)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t800</font>, Hero????

What is your play? If you fold, what do you call with?

[Mr_J]

How much FE do you think we have, and what do you think his range might be?? What do you make of his 4xbb raise??

I was hoping you'd tell me /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Bubble has been fairly static... people grabbing the blinds from the seat to their left and passing them to the seat on their right.

For range I'd guess 22+, A2+, K5+, QJ+

If we were ITM I'd just push. In fact normally I'd just push. But some people here lately say my bubble play "makes them want to vomit" or worse. I've always been very aggressive on the bubble, figuring everybody else is tight. I bust out on the bubble a lot more than I place third or second. I've been told by numerous posters that my focus is to survive to third then play for first.

So my question is, is this one of those fold-to-get-to-third type of plays, or do I push?

[tigerite]

You need a read here, big time.

You have to win 61.4% of the time against his range, and you also have to understand that pushing here he only needs to be a 35% favourite to call you.

[tigerite]

[ QUOTE ]
I was hoping you'd tell me /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Bubble has been fairly static... people grabbing the blinds from the seat to their left and passing them to the seat on their right.

For range I'd guess 22+, A2+, K5+, QJ+

If we were ITM I'd just push. In fact normally I'd just push. But some people here lately say my bubble play "makes them want to vomit" or worse. I've always been very aggressive on the bubble, figuring everybody else is tight. I bust out on the bubble a lot more than I place third or second. I've been told by numerous posters that my focus is to survive to third then play for first.

So my question is, is this one of those fold-to-get-to-third type of plays, or do I push?

[/ QUOTE ]

If his range is that.. then it's just about a push, but it's REALLY thin.

[curtains]

btw reasonable time to stop and go instead of push.

[tigerite]

The one issue I have with stop and go is.. well two actually, not closing the action is one, and the other is you will have only 845 to put into the flop when the pot will be 1800.

[curtains]

Yes but there is serious folding equity on the flop against these mornos and secondly the BB shouldnt be affected by allin or a call here, as 800 is over half his stack. I think the closing the action argument isnt super relevant in this case. Also please note that we'd love to entice the BB in the pot with something like AJo.

[Bill Poker]

what do you (curtains/tigerite) think of my similar post:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...e=1#Post4234922 (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&amp;Number=4234922&amp;an=0&amp;page=1#Post 4234922)

[tigerite]

I guess that is all true. This is probably a rare situation where we don't want a call from KJo, should we re-push preflop, so in that respect a stop and go would be better if it comes T high or something. Yeah, ok you sold me. The only thing is it lets him fold lesser aces which of course, we'd want to be all-in against preflop. It probably balances out though, just about.

[tigerite]

[ QUOTE ]
what do you (curtains/tigerite) think of my similar post:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...e=1#Post4234922 (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&amp;Number=4234922&amp;an=0&amp;page=1#Post 4234922)

[/ QUOTE ]

That really isn't very similar. There's two all-ins before you, and you only have 5BB. That one is really hard to answer but I think personally I would fold.

[tigerite]

And obviously if the SB had folded it is a super easy call.

I would push against all but the tightest buttons with AQ. 4 BB looks like he wants a fold to me. I am usually aggressive enough (and playing against bad enough players) that weaker aces will call my push. It sucks if you are flipping a coin, you have enough overlay and there is no very short stack so you have to win chips to win anyway. I think you have some fold equity here, especially if he has a very small pair or Kx or other garbage. Added benefit if he folds will be fewer pure steal attempts against your blinds.