Time for a heroic call?

[ansky451]

Ok, this is in the Pokerstars 300 from saturday. About 30 left, bubble at 18. Overall its a relatively tough table, fairly tight, and aggressive.

I have about 8000, villain directly to my right has 7000. I have played him before, hes been playing relatively tight and aggro, hasn't done anything out of line. He probably views me similarly. Anyway, he opens EMP to 600 (100/200 25 blinds) I cold call with red 9s. Everyone else folds.

Flop: 3/images/graemlins/club.gif 8/images/graemlins/club.gif T/images/graemlins/spade.gif He leads out for 600. Er, thats a fishy bet. Usually I'd smooth call a 1/2-3/4 size bet here but that bet was too small for me to just call I felt. So I raise to 2000. He pushes. I puke and...

puke certainly, but fold. youre still good with the blinds. tough spot. I would put him on an overpair. If he doesnt get out of line much, then he could be semi bluffing with AKc AQc, but even those hands leave you vulnerable. Id fold given your previous info.

[TheTimeIsUp]

I fold. However, Raising like that with intenetions of folding to a push is bad. Either call the flop, or call the push. It is true that you still have plernty of chips, and don't need to call his all in.

[ansky451]

cough

A couple days ago, someone folded to a raise of 1800 with blinds of 300-600 with 99. Do you understand why?

I agree that a call is a better option in most case, but it is hard to play.

I think you have to fold, you don't even beat top pair and if he his on AK or AQ he has 14 outs.

[Sam T.]

Smells like a slightly ahead/crushed situation. Best case he's on overs (6 outs times two, plus a backdoor str8 draw), worse is overs with a couple of clubs (add nine more), then there's an overpair, and finally a set. Yuck.

Fold.

[ansky451]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you have to fold, you don't even beat top pair and if he his on AK or AQ he has 14 outs .

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh?

[HoldingFolding]

I think this is a fold too. Less because of the hands than the reads you both had. My guess is his lead out bet was purposefully weak, because he presumed you'd see it as weak and come back at him. In which case he either has a hand he doesn't mind going to showdown with (or, less likely given your read, balls of steel).

[MLG]

I really disagree with some of the ranges and math presented in this thread.....mainly because there arent any of either.

[ QUOTE ]
I cold call with red 9s.

[/ QUOTE ]
Had they been two black nines I would say call.

Er, is that fishy weak or fishy trap. Don't know, but we do know your hand is vulnerable so calling can't be right - w/ enumerable bad turn cards you need to find out now if you intend to ever. You get to decide whether it's worth it to find out (w/ only the reads you have about general tightness and aggression - I vote "fishy trap" so I pass) - if so raise the minimum to get that info - 2000 is too high a price to pay - 1500 would seem to be more than the price of info here. In any event as it played out I think the question has been asked and answered: he's got a hand and your done.

[Roman]

Fold pf, now you know why.

You don't like the PF call for set value w/ position?

[Roman]

obviously not /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[ansky451]

Do I sense some sarcasm Roman? Hmmmmmmmmm...

[JustPlayingSmart]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, this is in the Pokerstars 300 from saturday. About 30 left, bubble at 18. Overall its a relatively tough table, fairly tight, and aggressive.

I have about 8000, villain directly to my right has 7000. I have played him before, hes been playing relatively tight and aggro, hasn't done anything out of line. He probably views me similarly. Anyway, he opens EMP to 600 (100/200 25 blinds) I cold call with red 9s. Everyone else folds.

Flop: 3/images/graemlins/club.gif 8/images/graemlins/club.gif T/images/graemlins/spade.gif He leads out for 600. Er, thats a fishy bet. Usually I'd smooth call a 1/2-3/4 size bet here but that bet was too small for me to just call I felt. So I raise to 2000. He pushes. I puke and...

[/ QUOTE ]

You say it's fishy (as in weird I think), but is this really out of the ordinary for this guy. I watch a fair amount of the "respected" Stars tourney players, and they make lots of flop and turn bets that I feel are too small, in like the 40% of pot range. And it's typically not an indication of a particular strength of hand.

If this is out of the ordinary for him, it could mean he missed the flop. But he could also be trying the "weak lead." If he knows you, he knows you are aggressive and certainly capable of raising with nothing here, or making a semibluff with something fairly weak like QsJs. He could also have a hand like AKc and wants to make sure that he is the one who puts in the last raise to maximize fold equity. If he bet 1000, you would probably be raising to 3000 or 3500 (or just pushing), and he would have a hard time pushing over the top because almost any raise you would make to a bet of 1000 would pot commit you.

I really don't like a call here. I find it unlikely that he has total air here (and I'll even put KQh in the land of total air, though it has 23% equity in this pot). I think most of the time he has an overcards + draw combo or pair + flush draw combo (and since the non club is the S, the pair + flush draw has you slaughtered anyway) or just a hand that he thought was best which he wanted to get money in the pot with (read: overpair).

Because of your aggressiveness, I think we might be able to look at this as similar to the situation where you have 15-20xBB stacks and he raises to 3xBB preflop, and then check/raises all in after your 4xBB flop bet. I think his range is very similar to what it would be here.

I should mention that I think he could make this move with A8 and 44-77 which are hands you beat. I wish I had Poker Stove on this computer to run this, since you are getting about 2.2-1 on this call, which is a pretty good price, but my gut is telling me you don't have the cEV to call this.

[ansky451]

Uh oh. (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=3477846&an=&page=0&vc=1)

Results oriented much?

[adanthar]

Well, like I said three months ago, when he underbet/3 bets it is either AA (and/or AcKc) or absolutely nothing. Do you believe him?

Of late, I tend to just call flops like these, but don't mind any other options much, either.

[ansky451]

Well, whether I would have folded 99 in this hypothetical hand isn't all that important. Sometimes I call, sometimes I fold. It "depends." The point I'm trying to make is that all those people who say they insta call that semi bluff with any pair, are simply wrong. It's easy to pick off a bluff when you know the other guys bluffing, but when you look at it from a reverse perspective, its very easy to think this is an overpair. It's just interesting that when I reverse points of view, 0 people said "easy call" which is what some people in the other thread said it would be if they had a mid pair. Clearly this is a form of being results oriented. Although it isn't really results oriented, more like, knowing-my-hand oriented.

FWIW I wouldn't raise the flop with 99 either. Definitely would just call and reevaluate turn.