My losing streak wins!!

[MicroBob]

At the risk of immense ridicule I'm posting some of the details of my now 1000BB+ losing string (yup...I said 1-freaking-thousand)!!!

Disclaimer: I'm not even pretending that I'm playing a winning game anymore although I really don't think my game is THAT god-awful. But obviously this goes far beyond what most would consider the regular bounds for a winning player's 'variance'.

Time to step away for a little while perhaps?? I suspect so (yet again).


Most of the recommendations are kind of obvious of course:
-- play fewer tables and focus
-- take a break and don't play for a few days
-- read, read, read (in strategy forums and SSHE, etc)
-- play full tables and just play weak-tight fit-or-fold poker to lessen the swings (which I've been doing...but the losing continues on and on and on)
-- don't get crazy over blind battles


Actually, I've been doing well in the occasional satellites and other tourneys I've been playing. So I might be off to low buy-in SNG's for awhile to rebuild bankroll and confidence (which is totally in the toilet now of course).

Maybe I'll just throw in 1 table of lowish-limit 6-max on the side while playing a couple tourneys. It's a thought.


Anyway - here are my fun-filled stats for your amusement (should make you all feel better about your own 'downswings'):


Today: another -60BB's in 1600 hands

Party since Nov 15:
33k hands, -1.31BB/100 at 5/10 and 3/6.
-439BB's total

UB since Dec 6:
33k hands, 1.88BB/100 at 3/6 and 2/4
-623BB's total


Yup - I've dropped 1071 BB's in the past month.
Impressive?? I sure think so.

It's been mostly just 30-40 or so BB's per day. Fun!!


It's difficult to seperate out the 6-max stats from the full-table stats at UB...so I'll just give some of my party 6-max stats (stats should generally be the same).

VP - 23
PFR - 18
FSB - 84
FBB - 68
WtSD - 35
W$SD - 51
W$WSF - 40

except for the low W$SD these numbers look pretty reasonable to me.


Ag-F - 3.0
Ag-T - 2.4
Ag-R - 1.8
Ag-total - 2.5


I'm raising much less these days trying to passivefy my play and keep myself tied to fewer pots:

By position (VP/PFR/WtSD/W$SD/BB/100):
UTG - 20/19/44/59/0.07
MP - 21/20/44/56/0.13
CO - 23/20/35/53/0.06
B - 24/20/40/56/0.09
SB - 24/20/39/55/(0.05)
BB - 20/9/26/46/(0.30)



My BB play looks glaringly bad obviously.
I know I've run into a lot of rivered 2-pairs after flopping top pair....or just whiffing with 98 on board of over-cards and stuff like that...but obviously I'm pretty in the wrong here still.


Breaking down the past few days of my losing streak:
12/19, -60
12/18, -17
12/17, -65 (3.9BB/100)
12/16, -29 (actually won $14, won at 3/6 and lost at 2/4)
12/15, -37
12/14, -92
12/13, -5 (actually won $100 though)
12/12, -47
12/11, +27
12/10, -138
12/09, +24
12/08, -102
12/07, -42
12/06, -55


And so on and so on and so on.

[pecto]

I can really feel your pain. I play at those levels too and i'm on a 26k hands break even stretch. And I've been through a -300 bb.

Trying to relearn the gme is not a bad idea. I'm starting to think that the 23-25/ 15-18 no longer works as good as it did before in this games. I'm starting to induce more bluffs and check and call a lot more, because there are less people now that pay off with crap and people are more agressive now. Probably nowadays 5/10 is very similar to the old 10/20 from 1 year ago and I've never beaten that game for a big rate. Keep thinking about poker and you'll find the way to keep winning

[pokergrader]

Aggression is too high. Try to get the total aggression to around 2. Don't force your opponents to fold worse hands and raise you with better ones. Check/calling your way to money is not only +EV against aggressive opponents but it is really fun to do.

Everything else looks pretty standard, but I would try to defend your blind a little more often.

Just FYI--

If I were to sit at a table and see a 23/17/2.5, I would not be particularly worried. The people that really scare me are the 27/20/2.0 people.

[air]

I agree with playing more hands. I'm about 31/19 at Party 5/10. I think if you find loose passive tables you can play a lot more hands.

[adsman]

Holy $hit.

[MicroBob]

[ QUOTE ]
Check/calling your way to money is not only +EV against aggressive opponents but it is really fun to do.

[/ QUOTE ]


Yeah...I've been bringing my aggression down of late.
I agree that I could check-call more...and also perhaps not push quite as much with winners (I'm always freaking driving my opponents out).

[MicroBob]

[ QUOTE ]
Holy $hit.

[/ QUOTE ]


Thank you.
this is the kind of reaction I was looking for.
I aim to please.

Keep 'em coming gang!!



The non-poker folk in my life know of my losing streak as well but don't know diddly about poker (and, evidently, neither do I really).

So I eas explaining to my Dad via e-mail (for example) that even a 500-600 bet losing string is considered to be HUGE and some would even consider that to be bigger than anything a winning player should experience.

And I have somehow doubled that.

I also drove the point home by mentioning that I think it might be a 2+2 record.


I don't believe I had ever had a downswing of greater than 250BB's at 6-max prior to this wonderful month of non-stop losing.


Happy Holidays Everyone!!

[POKhER]

From your last post, what striked me is your lack of reads? I don't know how long you played the session for but i saw hardly any information besides stats?



Do you feel like you're playing through a downswing and just grinding through hands in the hope it magically ends and your "standard game" will return you to a "upswing"?

Are you playing more than one table?
Are you playing scared? In the JJ hand you didn't bet but called down on a the ACE hitting vs a maniac. Not sure of the best line to take vs him but it came across as a weak.

I really think you need to turn your PC off for 2days, go do whatever you do? Ive no idea how old(Or young /images/graemlins/tongue.gif) you are and you're status but either go out and have a laugh or spend more time with the wife or mow the lawn /images/graemlins/tongue.gif(hehe).

Dont go near poker, this will be good for your mind and also keeps your bankroll even.

I think running this bad for this long is as you said... Killing if not killed your confidance.

Running yourself dry wheter your playing well or not(I really doubt your playing your same game after this) is something you want to avoid.

So get up off your chair, turn off your pc... and GET AWAY FROM POKER!

Return in two days to play a lower level for half an hour, then start re-reading a book.

The first pages of SSH were read by me last night, dam they're pretty "Comforting" in the sense about +EV and ED millers sucess etc.

Good luck mate, i'd offer to help but i reckon any of my advice or chat is worthless as you probably chat to higher stakes players and i'm a relative newbie anyhow.

[adsman]

I'm sorry, I just didn't know what else to say. To be honest, your run scares the feck out of me.

[MicroBob]

No need to be sorry!!
My reaction would be the same.

It probably shouldn't scare you THAT much either.


If you are truly a winning player I don't think it should be possible to do what I have accomplished. It takes a true talent (such as myself) to drop over 1000 BB's.

As pokher pointed out, I posted a hand in the SHUSH forum that I played pretty gosh-darned passively. I know I'm misplaying other hands too.

A good player getting the exact same cards as me would certainly not have lost nearly as much as I have. Perhaps (probably??) would have been profitable in fact.

At least I have some RB to keep me going.


Also - I am partly accepting pokher's ideas about staying away. I was planning on doing various errands today as well as spending some time with the GF who is not working today.


Other options for the future will include playing more "for fun" in low buy-in SNG's or satellites (where I've been doing quite well actually...over $1k on Pokerstars from the past week or so).

I might consider playing total idiot poker too:
This would include multi-tabling full-ring at something like 12/6 perhaps with even more of a fit-or-fold style or something like that. I do believe this would still be good enough to win at Party 2/4 and 3/6 actually.

Or I might play some Miller NL short-stack strategy (from his book Getting Started in Holdem) which I would categorize as another form of 'idiot poker'.


I need confidence of course.
but I also need some money and to that end 'fixing' my game immediately isn't my top priority anymore.

I really don't care how dumb I have to play or how long in order to grind out some dollars.
It might sound like torture for some to play THAT boring a style of poker (miller short-stack NL...or super weak-tight low-limit)....but playing in ANY fashion that results in some wins would be a really fun time for me these days.


I actually was playing some .25/.50 full-ring on a different site today on 3 tables (just getting in enough hands for a weekly freeroll tournament).
I dropped 30BB's over there too. my QJ on board of J9425 would always run into 54 and other such catastrophes.


Anyway...I forgot to include those 30BB's in the down-swing...but I had some winning stretches on a couple of those sites too so it probably balances out.

[AllIn3High]

Hi Microbob, sorry to hear about you downswing. I experienced something similiar (at NL):

here (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Board=ssplnlpoker&Number=384820 1&Searchpage=4&Main=3847775&Words=AllIn3High&topic =&Search=true#Post3848201)

I don't know what works for you, but I switched to a different game (6-max limit) and started from scratch, relearing the nuances of the game and gaining confidence. You could probably do something similar at $25NL, if you have even a basic understanding of the game you can beat it. Your opponents are poor and you risk very little. If you're unconfortable playing with a full stack (which is understandable at first), just buy-in for 50BB and get all-in w/ overpairs, TPTK, sets and better. And stay at the table and play with your new big stack.

Good luck.

[adsman]

How about this;

Take the rest of the week off. Don't post any of your own hands. Just reply to as many hands that are posted with your thoughts and see how your advice stands up. Sit down on Friday night alert and refreshed and start it up. Don't look at your stats or cashier box until Monday morning.

Thank god you've got rakeback.

Actually, come to think of it, whenever I'm running bad, (which I feel embarressed to say now after seeing your 1K effort), I go down to the 0.02/0.04 session and play complete maniac poker. bet and raise every damn hand. Put everyone else at the table on tilt. Get them screaming at me in the chatbox. I always feel great after that.

[POKhER]

From you're post you sound like you've kind of disregaurded the money won or lost, i guess you play reasonably high stakes?

Do you depend on it as your income or is this just a hobby?

I seriously think you need to take 2 days off, one day isn't enough but 2days will be good.

Just dont play!!!!

If you really can't control the urge, then maybe read a book on poker but when i had a 100BB swing(yeah seems like pennys vs yours i know) but a downswing is a downswing; They affect confidance if its the worst you've experienced (which that was)! My mind litrally clouded up, it felt like i didnt know why i was raising AJs and i didn't know why im betting a flop when i hold Ace Jack High... my mind just clouded up and i felt lost.

I took a break, then i played lower limit game(.10/.20 i think lol) and winning a pot cleared my mind.

It was wierd, thats why i say i suck at the psychological side of the game interms of tilt/varience(ok im crap post flop but anyhow).

Infact it wasn't the cash i won($1 or 2), it was just the fact i could see i won 10BB's!

It takes will power though to leave your pc... specially if you love poker as i assume you must(Love and hate after this swing).

Maybe drop to 2/4 or 3/6 as you say and get back you're feel for the game without the worry of losing big cash.

If 2/4 still feels like a fair bit of cash, play 1/2 and try win 20BB's. Move up to 2/4....

After all, its better to play GOOD POKER at 2/4 than play weaktight poker at 5/10 because of the downswing you're experiencing right?

I think you just need to rebuild you're confidance, you're game will then adjust to your good TAG play(Where you bet JJ even if a ACE HITS vs a MANIAC).

Then re-read a book, be it SSH or TOP or WTO... Whichever. Do the quizzes to confirm you know you're playing well. All this will help with confidance(Although the quizzes are full ring i know)

I really think after regaining that confidance you're natural tendancies(The good TAG play you've played 1000's of hands with) will come together.

Good luck bob, keep us updated!

[MicroBob]

"Don't post any of your own hands. Just reply to as many hands that are posted with your thoughts and see how your advice stands up."


Actually that's what I had been doing for the past couple of weeks.
I'm changing things up now by actually posting a few of my own hands.

Yours and allin3high's ideas are valid.
I don't think I'm going to stay away for a week though.

I might play total retard .02/.04 however which sounds kind of fun.

I remember doing that back in January on the designated .5/1 table when Bisonbison was playing his 24-hour marathon.
Several of us 2+2'ers there were capping every street.
I caught like crazy and won 180BB's in 110 hands or something ridiculous.
I had a really silly streak where I won 6 or 7 hands in a row (most of them on the river). Good times.


I already mentioned the possibility of heading to full-ring playing super weak-tight...or small stakes Miller NL short-stack system...or tourneys.
Whatever. Lots of possibilities.


My tourney game is +$1000 at Stars this past week thank goodness and I've had a few other good performances in there (11th place out of 240 in back to back weeks in the Party 15k-point tourney awarding a PPM cruise to 1st...among other solid performances).


amazingly I'm not nearly as down about this as you might think.
The worst that can happen is that I would actually have to go out and get a REAL job (GASP...the horrors!!!!).

my GF is still crazy about me...my cat is still cute...I still have my health....etc etc.

It's not the end of the world...No biggie.
I'm just a bad poker-player (these days), that's all.
I'd prefer to be a not-as-bad poker-player so I'm going to take steps to try to make that happen.

[POKhER]

Micro, have you been sweated by anyone?

I've read you're posts and "I'm just a bad poker-player (these days), that's all." made me laugh.

Varience man, and the psychological affect.

Drop down 2stakes, Read books after having the break.

You'll be back. You need a break, you need to regain confidance and have someone sweat you on your first few sessions i reckon.

[MicroBob]

Yeah...all worthwhile ideas as well.

I was playing occasional 10/20 6-max in Aug and Sept (and did pretty well...but then hit a little skid so stepped back).
Dropped down to 5/10. Then to 3/6. Then to 2/4.

Partly for bankroll preservation and partly for confidence rebuilding.

I guess I can just keep dropping levels until I finally start winning again!!



Even though it's stressful now I have every confidence that I will indeed be back.
And it will make quite the story of how this little sucky internet-player got his act together and went on to win some big tourney (or crush the 100/200 games or something like that).

[augie00]

hey if it makes you feel better i suck too

[MicroBob]

Do you "1kBB" suck?

[dankhank]

[ QUOTE ]

Ag-total - 2.5

I'm raising much less these days trying to passivefy my play and keep myself tied to fewer pots:


[/ QUOTE ]

just wanted to point out one key error in your thinking (imo), which is that the point of passive play in limit is to get yourself tied to more pots rather than less. for example, if you're considering either raising or calling on the turn in position: if you raise you give your opponent a chance to 3-bet and force you to fold before the showdown, where if you just call, the two bets that could've been used to raise him, will get you all the way to the end.

i can see where in a low limit full ring game 'passify my play' can mean getting tied to fewer pots in the sense of, "well i could either raise my top pair bad kicker on the flop in this five-way hand and commit majorly to it, or i could play passively so i can get away from the pot easy on the turn if i don't improve." however you said you are playing 6-max games where there is a lot of heads-up action, in which case i think passive play is equated with being in more pots rather than less, postflop.

you may be using the term 'passify' differently than this scenario, but when i run into what i consider large flaws in logical deduction re: limit holdem, in conjunction with a 1000bb downswing post, i wonder if some of the poster's fundamental theories are perhaps flawed. i don't play much shorthanded, but 2.5 aggresion seems a bit high given you haven't been holding many winners.

i think it would help to post hands and respond to hands on the forums, but sometimes particular lines aren't the problem. maybe you should be rethinking your overall gameplan while in the midst of playing, too. as your psychological state seems to be one of your strengths, it seems like your mind should be clear for this type of cerebral investigation.

[MicroBob]

very nice post.

thanks.

change your name.

Edit: err... your poker room name =P

[Sponger15SB]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree with playing more hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Count me in the people who totally disagree.

If I were MB I'd be wanting to play less hands right now. BTW, his OP was tl;dr so I dont know his stats anyways.

[wowacedude]

i might we be way out here, but i someone one pointing out that you should play more hands, don't.
and in the 2/4 -> 5/10 i dont think those agg numbers are that bad, it's a kinda passive game and i think you should be a lot of value betting.

my 2 dollars.

i also agree that a break sounds like a good idea.

good luck.

Wow. That is frightening. And commendable also that you have managed to stick with it. I know that whenever I hit a big slide I find it progressively difficult, emotionally, to haul myself back to the computer and tell myself it is all going to be okay in the end if i just plug on through.

Regarding the stats you posted, the only thing that stands out is the big blind. At (.30) you are getting absolutely murdered, and although I haven't done the math, I would say that a big proportion of these losses could be attributed to just this fact. If blind play is not your strong point (and these steal/ defence situations are often difficult when you are running low on confidence as they tend to require the negotiation of marginal situations) you should also not play short for a while either, where they obviously come up with greater frequency.

Really hope it works out for you and you manage to pull out the other side.

[climber]

I realize this likely isn't what you are looking for in this thread and I'm not sure if strategy is allowed in BBV or not but here goes.

OK you recognize your BB is horrible--thats important.
Read some Peter_rus stuff (Nov 04- Mar 05 if I had to guess)to correct that and ditch the phrase "blind battle" from your vocab. If anything I think you are slightly too aggro postflop and the combination of not playing enough hands from the BB and thinking of each one as a "battle" is gonna just lead to major spewage as you have experienced.

"sometimes its tight/aggressive to check call"
--quote from the archives (Tommy Angelo maybe?)

However I think the big problem with your game lies in your position stats. I'm not gonna spell it out for you too much but here is a link (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=4005550&page=0&fpart=all &vc=1) with some stats of some very good players and if you look at the differences betwen your position stats (VP$IP and PFR) I think a lot of what you are doing wrong should be pretty apparent.

Best of luck.

Play 1c-2c with me on UB.

Sit in on the 5c-10c no max table with $500.

[bobbyi]

Sorry to hear about this, Bob. Here are a couple comments in response to your post and the others in the thread:

Playing more hands: I would not go nuts trying to play more hands. If you are not showing a profit playing the number of hands that you are, adding more marginal hands is almost never the answer. However, there probably are some spots where you are giving up a little bit too much right now by folding. In particular, your folded BB to steal % is quite high and in addition, you are getting killed in the BB with a -.3 BB/100. Your sample size isn't large enough here to be that confident in win rates from specific position, so this could just be poor luck, but combined with your high fBBts, it is very likely that you are leaving money on the table by giving up your blind so easily. There are a lot of hands that are proftiable getting better than 3:1 to look at a flop plus implieds against an opponent who could have almost anything. Accepting a .5 BB loss is often a substantial mistake.

Aggression Factor: I've always had a high AF (at least as high as yours), so I'm not going to join the bandwagon here saying you are too aggressive. If you had both a high AF and a low WtSD, I'd be worried that you give up too often, but that isn't the case, so you're probably okay here.

Switching games: I find this helpful when I need to reexamine by thinking and my game. It helps to shake things up and think about poker in a new setting and it provides a sort of mental reset that can help with the downswing mindset. Playing small stakes NL or SnG's is a nice idea. I wouldn't go with the short stack NL strategy unless you are very inexperienced at NL. If you have some experience with it, I would fire up a couple tables of $50NL and buy in for the max. (Note: bobbyi is a lifetime loser at online $50 NL /images/graemlins/frown.gif).

I would focus on games where you can make a consistent profit like NL and single-table SnGs. Playing MTTs with huge player pools is fun and there's nothing wrong with doing some of that on the side, but your plan for rebuilding should be to hope to win the lottery in a MTT and make everything right.

Playing less tables: Yes! Play less tables. You are making at least some bad decisions at the table, so you need to work on your poker thinking and reasoning. Playing a new game (above) can be helpful since it puts you in new situations that force you to really think rather than playing by habit (this is why I say not to remove most of the thinking from NL by doing the shorstack thing). Playing less tables at limit and focusing on each decision can do the same thing. That is hugely helpful both for improving your game and regaining your confidence. I think this is a much better idea that playing like a robot in smaller games. Dropping down in limits some may be good, but not so much that you are wasting your time and doing nothing to rebuild your confidence about playing in real games. Exactly where to pay is dependent on you and how you feel about various limits, but sticking to 2/4 for a while might be good.

If it's available to you, I would strongly recommend playing a few sessions live (maybe once a week for a while). That is the ultimate setting for being able to think about every decision and really get to know your oppponents and try to adjust to them. This can be really helpful for rebuilding your thinking about confidence. Find a soft lower limit game where the opponents are terrible and you find it fun to play.

[ QUOTE ]
play full tables and just play weak-tight fit-or-fold poker to lessen the swings (which I've been doing...but the losing continues on and on and on)
-- don't get crazy over blind battles


[/ QUOTE ]
This quote worries me a bit. The reason that people run into downswings worse than they should statistically is that once they run a little bit bad, they freak out and start chaging everything about their game that was right and completely forget how to play. Becoming "weak-tight" is not the answer. Critically analyzing every decision and trying to find what you are doing wrong is the only way. Play less tables and really focus. Don't give up your blinds more easily or start folding decent hands. Throwing away money isn't the way to deal with a downswing.

[ QUOTE ]
It's difficult to seperate out the 6-max stats from the full-table stats at UB

[/ QUOTE ]
Use "database maintenance and options" in PT and pick 6-max sessions. You can label any session as being 6max. If you are playing on a site that automatically differentiate 6-max sessions in PT, each day after you are done playing, you should tag the session by hand so that you can accurate stats. Without having done this, you can get the stats you are looking for by filtering by # of players (of course, this will include shorthanded hands at 10-max tables, which you may or may not want).

[ QUOTE ]
Post in strategy forums more:

[/ QUOTE ]
I've never been crazy about the phrase "strategy forums" since the majority of dicussion on most of them is tactics, but regardless, you definitely need to post more analysis and hands. It's a shame that this is only happening in reaction to a downswing. I have always wondered my one of the most level-headed and articulate posters spends so much time chatting in the zoo and so little making posts to try to improve his game. I think some of your current troubles could have been avoided if you focussed more time on being a strategy poster. I hope that whenever you start running good again, you don't take that to mean that you no longer need to worry about posting and responding to hands.

[Escape]

Posts: 13314 and still losing... damn sucks to be you.

[NLfool]

I've never played with microbob nor does he post in the forums/sections I visit (cept for the blackjack threads) but personality wise and the way he writes I can't see him being a LAG.

Seems more ABC straight forward type and this should work all the way up to 10/20. For an straight forward player to lose 1000BB is almost incomprehensible.


The only advice I would have is to play NL to decrease your bad beats and swings.

[MicroBob]

" personality wise and the way he writes I can't see him being a LAG."


It's interesting that you say this but I think it's untrue.

My play can be VERY lag-gish at times....like hyper-aggressive type LAG.
iso-3 betting where the rest of the forum recommends just calling or folding...etc etc
Oh yeah, and I'm a calling station too.

These are things I have known about myself for a long time...but it was all okay then of course since I was winning. But I was never bashful about admitting my LAG-gish tendencies and it's not something I'm just saying now that I'm a super-sucky player.

These numbers are a bit more passive than before because I've been tightening up quite a bit.



climbers and bobbyi and others have given some very nice ideas too and I thank everyone for the thoughts.


I think climber's ideas may be correct...but it's hard to make oneself defend one's BB MORE when one is in a downswing.

bobbyi's thoughts are certainly valid...espeically, "I think some of your current troubles could have been avoided if you focussed more time on being a strategy poster."



Also - "Without having done this, you can get the stats you are looking for by filtering by # of players "



Unfortunately, there isn't a filter on the 'preferences' tab that effects all the areas of poker-tracker. Some of the stats like ag-factor don't seem to be able to be adjusted that way.
If someone can tell me a way to see one's ag-factor by filtering for number of players I'd be interested to know.



Thanks again all.

[TimM]

[ QUOTE ]
I think climber's ideas may be correct...but it's hard to make oneself defend one's BB MORE when one is in a downswing.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure I like the term "defending" one's blind. I think it ties people to the hand too much. I love opponents whose idea of defending blinds (or stealing them) is to spew at least 5 BBs with no pair and no draw. Yeah, that's a great way to try to save or win that 0.5 BB blind bet. Against these guys you can call pre-flop and then just toss your hand if you miss the flop. It feels weak but you won't win by playing back at them without the best hand, and when you do hit they pay off quite a bit.

[Klepton]

this entire thread: tl;dr

[bobbyi]

[ QUOTE ]
MTTs with huge player pools is fun and there's nothing wrong with doing some of that on the side, but your plan for rebuilding should not be to hope to win the lottery in a MTT and make everything right.
...If you are playing on a site that does not automatically differentiate 6-max sessions in PT, each day after you are done playing, you should tag the session by hand

[/ QUOTE ]
FMP.

[The Goober]

Not much to add, but you should try to get out and play live if you can. If nothing else, it'll help restore some confidence when you get a good look at your opponents and realize just how clueless they really are.

did you ever play higher than 3/6 on a regular basis? or is
this small limit play just cause your losing?

[MicroBob]

i've played up to 15/30 (live and online)...did quite well actually during my stay in Vegas in July.

I'm playing down to 2/4 and 3/6 because I've been losing.

[MicroBob]

[ QUOTE ]
this entire thread: tl;dr

[/ QUOTE ]


so don't read it.

[flair1239]

I know we have not always had a pleasant correspondance... but I really feel bad for you. I have been through a downswing half as bad in July, and I realise the feeling of hopelessness that can develope.

I really think you should consider the less tables option. I dropped a single table down to 3 at the beginning of the month. I have noticed that I am able to play longer sessions and stay focused for longer periods of time.

Looking at your stats the thing I would say is that an aggression rate of three is very high on the flop. It would be my guess you are not getting the value you should from some of your good hands, and also not giving yourself enough oppurtunity to draw out.

[bugstud]

hey bob, grab pokergrapher and show us the super-soiler graph plz thx

[MicroBob]

You're a sick man.

[KSOT]

I'd like to see a graph too, actually. Not just the downswing though... the whole shazam to put things into perspective.

[MicroBob]

Well...I felt like trying it again...playing super-tight at the BBJ 2/4 and 3/6 tables to finish clearing my $100 reload bonus (which somehow hasn't expired yet) because $100 is actually kind of worthwhile to me right now.


Well...so far I'm down $134 with about 100 hands left to get the bonus.

When bonus is cleared I'll be through for the evening and possibly for a day or two. Haven't fully decided yet.
If I feel like staying up then I might surf around here some, clean up around my apartment, or curl up with something like GSIH or WLLHE both of which I plan to just read cover to cover in the coming days.



Went out to dinner tonight with the GF and she's really terrific. So we chatted some about it and what my plan was...then we moved on to other topics.

I tried to put into context for her how ridiculous 1k+ BB's is and that this basically NEVER happenes for a winning player.
She could tell that it was getting to me a bit and that I was somewhat frustrated and that 'the frustration is probably effecting your play' at which point I explained that that will typically happen to good players if they lose just 200 or 300 bets which is considered really bad.
"And how many have you lost again?"
"Ummm, that would be over 1000."
"Oh...... Wow."


But there's no reason why I can't grind my way back at my current limits. She was concerned with what happens if I keep losing of course and I stated, "well..at some point I would have to get a job."


Anyway...I have 2 months living expenses on the side...and above that I have a poker bankroll that is still over 1k BB's for 3/6. And I'm actually possibly going to play more 2/4 or even 1/2 for awhile.
So if I can go that far out of my way to drop ANOTHER 1k BB's then that would TRULY be something special.

[KeysrSoze]

Holy crap, we need to trade accounts. Mines on a hot streak.

[MicroBob]

BTW - when I talk about 'super-tight at the full-ring tables...i'm talking 15/8 fit-or-fold style poker while these guys are really donking around.


Here are my 2 favorite hands for the evening that kind of highlight some of my experience.

I know they're just your run-of-the-mill silly beats...but what the hell...I'm down 1k BB's and you're not so I'm posting them.


Both are against the same player who is 80/7/1.6.



Hand 1:
Party 3/6, 8-handed:

Hero is CO with A /images/graemlins/heart.gif A /images/graemlins/club.gif

UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, Hero raises, button folds, SB folds, BB folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.


Flop (3 players): J /images/graemlins/heart.gif 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

MP1 checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets, MP1 folds, MP2 calls


Turn: A /images/graemlins/spade.gif

MP2 checks, Hero bets, MP2 calls


River: K /images/graemlins/spade.gif

MP2 bets, Hero raises, MP2 calls


MP2 shows 6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif



Golly.



Hand 2: (1 orbit later, same guy):

hero has 4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif in BB

4 limpers.
I check.

Flop: (5 players): K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif A /images/graemlins/spade.gif 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Checked around

Turn: 5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

Hero bets, 3 folds, Button calls


River: J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Hero bets, button raises, hero calls


Button shows T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif



Since these hands I have made a modest comeback. I am down $90 for the evening with 50 hands to go to receive my $100 bonus.

Will I actually finish in positive territory for this session (after receiving the bonus of course)???

Stay tuned.

[threeonefour]

I just wanted to wish you good luck in the future Bob. I am sure you don't know me/aren't aware of my posts but i have always been a fan of yours.

it takes a lot of guts to make a post like this. it shows humility which i think is very important to a player.

[MicroBob]

well...it wasn't to be.

-$149 in the hands it took to clear the bonus.

So -$49 overall for this session.

Close enough to even that I'll consider it a victory.

Thanks for all the kind words everyone. The support and advice is actually quite helpful.




I need some opinions on another important issue though....

At the chinese restaurant tonight my fortune-cookie read, "You will have good luck in your personal affairs."

I need to know if poker counts as a 'personal affair'.

GF says it definitely does but I'm not convinced.

[adsman]

[ QUOTE ]
At the chinese restaurant tonight my fortune-cookie read, "You will have good luck in your personal affairs."



[/ QUOTE ]

How many cookies did you have to open before you got that one?
Anyway, you have got good luck in your personal affairs. Your girlfriend sounds awesome.

[big show]

Ditto, get your swagger back dude. You are better than that. Anything happening away from the tables that is effecting you?

[GoblinMason (Craig)]

Bob,

I'm really surprised to see this happen to you.

I think others have covered the main points, so I don't really have any advice as far as your actual play goes.

However, I'm confident that you're on the path to success as you are willing to step down, reevaluate, and admit your shortcommings. Being overly proud can be especially bad for a poker player. After doing quite a bit of sweating of the Party 2/4 BBJ games, I'm quite sure you must have a positive expectation here. Just grind it out, and unless you're tilting, you'll be fine.

Since you have two months of living expenses saved, have you considered taking several weeks to a month off? I don't know if you are experiencing burnout (possibly leading to tilt), but taking time off really helped me during previous poker funks.

From my own recent experience of stepping down, I've enjoyed it so far, and have started to rebuild some confidence after an aweful swing (addmittedly, not nearly as bad as yours.) I would be surprised if you don't say the same thing in a month or two.

-Craig

[einbert]

[ QUOTE ]
Just FYI--

If I were to sit at a table and see a 23/17/2.5, I would not be particularly worried. The people that really scare me are the 27/20/2.0 people.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is silly. There really isn't that much difference.

For example, at one table I can play 27/20, while at the other table I can play 23/17. Just based on differences in game texture, relative position, etc.

[Nikla]

Good luck. Hope it'll turn around for you.

[Mempho]

[ QUOTE ]
No need to be sorry!!
Perhaps (probably??) would have been profitable in fact.



[/ QUOTE ]

I really hate to hear about this losing streak, Bob. It's an awful streak to say the least. I quoted the above text because it's extremely unlikely that this could be the case even if you are not playing well. You might not be playing well, but I would bet my bankroll that noone could have turned a profit with the same cards if you just lost 1,000BB. I would suggest that you do what Doyle did during his losing streak last year and have a "play audit." Doyle had Chip Reese watch his play during a particularly bad run last year. Any number of people could help you with this and their POV would undoubtedly be valuable.

[adios]

Hand 1 is a somewhat rare happening but these beats do happen. Hand 2 is fairly common and it's fairly easy to see how it happend. Might have been able to save a bet by folding to the river raise but I can't quibble with the call. You want this kind of action from opponents. FWIW tightening up as you have is probably a good idea. I suspect that 1000 BB downswing has something to do with playing a lot worse as the downswing has progressed. A 1000 BB downswing should be a rare thing for a player winning at a decent rate but shouldn't be that rare for a player playing close to break even or losing. I suspect you've played in alot of games where your edge isn't that great and it's pretty easy to see how this can happen. The old poker saw that a good players edge over bad players is much bigger than an excellent player's edge over average players I would think applies. From what I've observed of online play, game selection is critical.

[Catt]

No advice. Just hope it gets better for you.

[Bluffoon]

I had a horrible stretch recently and I did that internet challenge thing. Start out with $50 at .5/1 and work your way up limits every time you win 50 bbs and dropping a limit every time you lose 25bbs.

[kiddo]

Havent read what other said, but your VPIP UTG should lower and VPIP at button higher. Mine are more like 12/17/21/26 from UTG to button, filtered for only 6 players.

I play at higer limits so there is less limping so I get more chances to raise first in from LP and more chances to raise 1 bad limper but still, it looks like u are not using your position.

Also, I would guess u are to aggressive for those loose games? But I could be wrong.

[beset7]

graph please.

[krazyace5]

I have also been running bad for about 3 weeks and honestly think a majority of it is bad luck.

Anyway I hope things change around for you soon, and me.

[MicroBob]

"How many cookies did you have to open before you got that one?"


It was actually the first/only one. I have it on my computer now.
Forget what my GF's fortune was but it was pretty good too.

I'm still hoping that poker counts as a 'personal' affair.

I dreamt last night that my GF and I were in France...so maybe I'll win one of those EPT-France things coming up. (also in the dream....after 2 days there we discovered that my cat had snuck along in my suitcase...and later we bumped into my ex-wife...weird)

[MicroBob]

I'm figuring out how to graph and screen-shot now (just screwing around because I'm not going to play any limit games tonight).

[bobbyi]

Most people are making graphs using poker patterns (http://www.pokerpatterns.com/) now. It is very similar to poker grapher.

My opinion is that this forum can't have enough graphs. We are here to talk about variance and these graphs are the best way to really see what the swings we face look like.

[MicroBob]

I got the grapher to work but my screen-shotting ability is zero (I had to have someone else host the my cat avatar).

I'm a computer idiot and am still working on how to get the image up there.

[Sponger15SB]

www.imageshack.us (http://www.imageshack.us)

[MicroBob]

okay...well this is what i get for graph 1.
again, i don't know what i am doing wrong to post this up. sorry.

http://img410.imageshack.us/my.php?image=ubgraph4sq.jpg

[MicroBob]

ok. finally.

sorry i don't know how to combine the 2 databases.
this is my UB database from Dec 6 to present.

http://img410.imageshack.us/img410/2356/ubgraph4sq.jpg

[MicroBob]

this is the graph for party from Nov 1 to present.
The 196BB peak was around Nov 10 or so.

Enjoy!!

http://img506.imageshack.us/img506/4266/nov2005graph4nq.jpg

[bugstud]

that is the sound of vomit hitting my monitor. yikes.

Ouch.

Keep fighting the good fight. Whatever that means.

Just hang in there! Review HH's or something.

Good luck.

[MicroBob]

somebody in this thread posted something about this probably not being that unusual for a barely above-break-even player.

I think this is very accurate.


Not only that...but I am a barely above-break-even player who is playing a higher variance, aggressive style both pre-flop and post-flop (my VP and PFR numbers were higher before i decided I shouldn't be copying the 30/20 SH champs around here until I knew what I was doing).


So for a high-ag player who really isn't playing with THAT much of an advantage (due to variance calling-down leaks, etc) i don't think this is TOO uncommon or unexpected.
There are times in the SH game where you should be calling-down with your A-high...but it is easy (in my case anyway) to get far too carried away with it.

something like that anyway.


Anyway - I started reading GSIH tonight including the opening chapters about the rules of the game and the ranking of the hands.

I'll get back to the limit games eventually (after a break and some reading).

Looking forward to posting a couple of monster, upswing brag graphs a few weeks down the road hopefully.

[Sponger15SB]

[ QUOTE ]
somebody in this thread posted something about this probably not being that unusual for a barely above-break-even player.

I think this is very accurate.

[/ QUOTE ]

Or, you're now a losing player.

[bugstud]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
somebody in this thread posted something about this probably not being that unusual for a barely above-break-even player.

I think this is very accurate.

[/ QUOTE ]

Or, you're now a losing player.

[/ QUOTE ]

bump

[Jstyal]

BoB, you're very self-awared about your leaks and playing methods that are in all likelyhood contributing to your poker shortcomings, so why not change them and become a consistent winner instead?

It's one thing to be incapable of changing our game because we don't know what we're doing wrong; it's another to know what we're doing wrong and do nothing about it.

If Poker is your only source of income, you must play to win.

-1000 BB in limit hold em is not a sign of winning play.

[MicroBob]

very true of course.


That post didn't quite come out the right way I don't think as I really wasn't trying to say that I'm still playing a long-term winning game.

I know I'm a losing player currently. I have said as much in this thread and elsewhere (to myself, GF, etc).

I was probably a barely-above-break-even high-variance player whose game has simply worsened into 'just plain losing' territory.

Everyone will have stretches where they don't play as well.
For most successful 2+2'ers they are still playing a winning game overall though because even a couple of little leaks they might have developed weren't enough to make them so bad as to be long-term losers.

For someone like me who wasn't that good to begin with...I was less able to afford such leaks because that would mean playing a losing game.

I guess I'm combining ideas of 'all players go through stretches where their game goes backwards a bit' with typical 'variance'.


I honestly don't think my game has gone backwards THAT much.
And I think I was already just barely getting by with a pretty inferior game to begin with.

However, I'm also willing to accept the possibility that I'm wrong about that and that my game has gone ridiculously far backwards.

[kiddo]

A graph over what? What do u want to know?

Those stats was from last 5-6 weeks, mostly 10/20 and 20/40, but I dont think they change a lot within those limits when its 6handed.

Looks like you stole my stock picks and graphed them.

How do you create this graph?

Thanks,
Pete

[SNOWBALL138]

bump. This thread rules. I hope things turn around for you microbob.