TT and a turn auto-bet

[Nick C]

I didn't think about this one a whole lot during the hand. I just bet the turn, with my cursor already practically hovering over the fold button right after I put in the bet. (I wasn't putting any more money in unimproved.)

But I did wonder about it a little afterwards.

Anyway, this is UTG's 5th hand at the table. During his fourth hand, he limped A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif in EP and saw a 3-way flop with the BB and me. (I was the PFR.) The flop came A /images/graemlins/club.gif Q /images/graemlins/club.gif J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, the turn brought a 2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif, and the Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif fell on the river. He and the BB called me down, and I won with A /images/graemlins/spade.gif K /images/graemlins/spade.gif.

MP1 is probably a TAG. His stats are 22/8/1.8 after 90 hands. The main thing I'd noticed about him is that he open-completed from the SB twice on my BB and then stole on the flop. (Possibly he actually caught something on the flop both times, but I felt like I was playing against myself.)

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif. CO posts a blind of $5.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, UTG calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (11.40 SB) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (7.20 BB) A/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>

<font color="#0000FF">All right, so I'm probably screwed. Nevertheless . . .</font>

UTG checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets . . .</font>

Should I keep doing this, or should I stop and think next time instead?

[SteveL91]

I like betting the turn when I can easily fold to a raise. Also, betting this turn may get MP1 to fold JJ (unlikely given your description, but possible) or something like KQ. The pot is big enough that I'm quite content to get someone to fold a 6-outer.

[WillMagic]

I've been thinking about spots like this...especially in blind battles. I might defend and then check-raise a weakish draw on the flop, and suddenly the turn ace comes and I know I'm screwed. It doesn't really matter what he has, he can raise the turn and I have to fold. Turn aces can be really awkward...especially on already drawy boards.

So I like checking here. Giving a free card is a lot more fun than getting check-raised off the best hand.

Plus, sometimes the free card won't even matter if you get 9-high to bluff into you on the river.

Will

[Carmine]

Well I often check in this spot. I figure what is calling that I beat. If I'm going to put in a bet I'd rather it be collecting a bet from and induced bluff on the river. Problem there is we give KQ and FD free cards to beat us. The other problem with betting though is that if I'm villian I'm check-raising your tag ass with KQ every now and then.

[Entity]

I don't see any reads that indicate you're afraid of a bluff checkraise -- just that he's aggressive -- and you're giving up far too much by checking here with what will be 6 outs one way against you but far too often 6-12 outs multiways in a 7 bet pot.

Checking here is giving up far too much. And I'm really surprised that people think villain is going to be bluff checkraising with KQo all that often here. When was the last time you were 3-bet by a solid player and you check-called a flop bet on a 456 board with KQo intending to checkraise a turned Ace in a 3-way pot? If the answer is "recent" you very well may want to recheck your game for leaks.

Rob

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
Plus, sometimes the free card won't even matter if you get 9-high to bluff into you on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I think this is an underrated concept.

I'm not sure how much it applies in the posted hand, though, as it's 3-way and MP1 (as a PFR) is really quite likely to have an ace.

I guess part of what I'm wondering is, if I do check the turn, should I call a river lead from MP1? Is he going to be attempting a steal with KQ, 88 or 99 often enough?

I'll admit that part of the reason I bet the turn is that I hoped MP1 would lay down JJ. I didn't really think that's what he had, though.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I think this is an underrated concept.


[/ QUOTE ]

It's not underrated at all, but on a 456A two club board when your opponent almost certainly has 6 outs if he's behind you'd much rather take the pot down now than check intending to call a river bet. If he bluffs the river 100% of the time, you're still better off betting because of the 3-way factor.

Even HU you would rather bet this turn than check and call the river UI, even if he would bluff 100% of the time. You lose a 7.2BB pot 13% of the time and win 1BB 87% of the time, for a net loss of about .06BB by checking.

There are other factors as well, like how often you'll get bluff checkraised here, and how often you'll forgo your 4.3% equity in the pot when he does have an A and checkraises you, but these combined -- in a pot this large -- don't make it worth checking.

Rob

[Jake (The Snake)]

Yeah Rob basically already said everything I wanted to add: the pot is too big and our opponents have too many outs.

In a smaller pot against an aggressive opponent who has less outs if behind, checking behind becomes a much more viable strategy. It is also better to do when you are unsure what to do to a checkraise, and you want to make sure you get to showdown against somebody who could be bluff raising.

Josh. has lots of good posts in the HUSH archive on when checking behind on the turn is good. King Yao also explains it pretty good in his book.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I think this is an underrated concept.


[/ QUOTE ]

It's not underrated at all,

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, it may be underrated by me, when I'm at the table. In blind-steal situations, I think I bet-fold the turn sometimes when I'd be better off checking behind, with the plan of showing down ace-high.

I'm still working on adjusting to aggressive blind defenders.

[ QUOTE ]
but on a 456A two club board when your opponent almost certainly has 6 outs if he's behind you'd much rather take the pot down now than check intending to call a river bet. If he bluffs the river 100% of the time, you're still better off betting because of the 3-way factor.

Even HU you would rather bet this turn than check and call the river UI, even if he would bluff 100% of the time. You lose a 7.2BB pot 13% of the time and win 1BB 87% of the time, for a net loss of about .06BB by checking.

There are other factors as well, like how often you'll get bluff checkraised here, and how often you'll forgo your 4.3% equity in the pot when he does have an A and checkraises you, but these combined -- in a pot this large -- don't make it worth checking.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I like this analysis. And I'd really rather hear why I should bet the turn in the posted hand than why I should check, since, like I said, I did it almost automatically. I paused long enough to think of a couple of hands for MP1 I might want to bet against (KQ and JJ are the ones I came up with, during the heat of the hand), figured that was enough, and hit the bet button.

In retrospect, I think the 16 combos of KQ should be discounted at least a little after the flop call, but then 88 is another hand I'd like to bet against. And if by some chance MP1 has 99 and has now given up on it, I'd prefer betting against that hand too over giving infinite odds.

[SackUp]

both jokers call this flop with overs that don't have an A here. This is an easy b/f. Like rob said and Jake echoed, you are giving up way to much by giving a free card. Take the pot down here or let them continue with their pp or draw.

[Nick C]

Thanks for the responses. I was glad to discover that my turn bet in this hand is not evidence of a leak I need to be tending to.

Anyway, after I bet, UTG checkraised, I folded out of turn, and MP1 cold-called. The J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif fell on the river, and the action went bet, call.

UTG won with 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif for the flopped nuts.

MP1 had A /images/graemlins/heart.gif Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif.

In this particular case, the ace on the turn was actually a good card for me.

what would you have done if the turn hadn't been an A and UTG still check raised you.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
what would you have done if the turn hadn't been an A and UTG still check raised you.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's a good question. Almost any card besides a 9 or T gives me an obvious way to lose, and I didn't really have a read on UTG and didn't have a very good idea what his range was.

I probably would have called, though, hoping I had outs against some (seemingly unlikely) two pair hand or that the checkraise was coming from a hand like A6 or 33. (I've been getting checkraise-semibluffed on the turn at 5/10 fairly frequently lately, although it happens more often when I'm heads-up.)