Question about coinflip?

[ripwalk]

The standard "race" in poker (pair v.s. 2 overcards) is always termed a "coinflip". From various hand simulators, I've always thought the percentage for this was somewhere around the 51 to 49 percent range in favour of the pair taking it.

However, one guy I was playing tonight kept quoting the coinflip situations as being 55 to 45 in favour of the pair.

And, as I think about it, I've seen some poker broadcasts where they advertise this percentage...

I'm just wondering, what is the actually probability of the race situation in poker?

[jtr]

Which hand simulators are you using that this is a mystery? For AKo vs 88 without any suits being shared, it's 44.4% to 55.6% in favour of 88. So yes, coinflip is something of a misnomer.

Hope this helps,
--JTR.

[ohnonotthat]

The rule of thumb is that the pair is a 6-5 (55:45) favorite against overcards.

The term "coin-flip" refers to the fact that there is no huge mismatch; the dead money (blinds + antes + anyone who folded) often makes it mathmatically correct for both players to contest the pot - even if they could see the other's hand.

Pair vs lower pair is a mismatch; the higher pair is, on average, a 4.5-1 (82:18) favorite.

A-K vs A-"anything else" is a mismatch; A-K is > a 3-1 favorite over almost all other Aces.

A-J vs K-T is not a David/Goliath but the A-J is ~ a 3-2 (60:40) favorite.

You will win alot of money by getting opponents to put their stacks in the pot as 6-5 underdogs.

You will get rich getting them all-in as 3-1/4-1 'dogs.

*

The other reason for the term . . .

If I am looking at a large bet (that is not a bluff) while holding A-K there are 3 scenarios.

My opponent has a pair (2-2 thru Q-Q) and I am a small 'dog.

My opponent has a lessor Ace (A-Q being the most likely) and I am a huge favorite.

My opponent has AA or KK and I am in deep doodoo.

- Actually there is a difference between facing KK or AA; I am close to dead against AA while I am a [much smaller] 3-1 'dog against KK but obviously I am hoping for one of the first two scenarios (him: A-Q or a smaller pair) if I do call.

[pzhon]

Usually the pair is a favorite, by as much as 57:43, e.g., Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif vs. A/images/graemlins/spade.gif K/images/graemlins/club.gif or 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif vs. K/images/graemlins/spade.gif 8/images/graemlins/club.gif.

Sometimes the overcards are a favorite, by as much as 54:46, e.g., J/images/graemlins/heart.gif T/images/graemlins/heart.gif vs. 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif 2/images/graemlins/club.gif.

I recommend www.twodimes.net (http://www.twodimes.net) .

Your opponent was closer to being correct, I think. Typically a pair is considered favourite by a margin of roughly 55-45 against the overcards.