11s PP: How is it possible to make a profit

[SaggyTTs]

I haven't been on this site long, so if I post an inappropriate question, slap me and forgive me.

Right now, I am playing 10 plus 1 sng's at Party. I am averaging ITM about 35 percent. In reading the FAQ here, I see that the most one can reasonably expect long-term is about 44 percent. To me, that makes sng's unwinnable. If I buy-in at 11 bucks per table (110 bucks), and only get itm 40 percent of the time (placing third), that's a 30 dollar deficit. If I place first one of those times, I am only breaking even.

For a rookie, can anyone tell me if I am missing something.

[KingDan]

You are (hopefully) gonna win or get second once in a while /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[bjb23]

win more.

My November and December SNGs at the 11s:

http://i11.photobucket.com/albums/a162/vinnyanddaisy/Finishgraph.jpg

[GrekeHaus]

[ QUOTE ]
I haven't been on this site long, so if I post an inappropriate question, slap me and forgive me.

Right now, I am playing 10 plus 1 sng's at Party. I am averaging ITM about 35 percent. In reading the FAQ here, I see that the most one can reasonably expect long-term is about 44 percent. To me, that makes sng's unwinnable. If I buy-in at 11 bucks per table (110 bucks), and only get itm 40 percent of the time (placing third), that's a 30 dollar deficit. If I place first one of those times, I am only breaking even.

For a rookie, can anyone tell me if I am missing something.

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If you're getting ITM 44% of the time, you're going to get a lot of 1sts and 2nds as well. It will happen, if only be accident. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[SaggyTTs]

So, do most here agree that 44 percent itm over the long-term is attainable?

[Mr_J]

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For a rookie, can anyone tell me if I am missing something.

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Heh yeh maths skills /images/graemlins/wink.gif.

40% ITM, say 13.33% for each of the paid placings. That's ((.133*39 + .133*19 + .133*9) - .6*11)/11 = 21.18% ROI.

That's 33.27% ROI for 44% ITM.

[Mr_J]

If you are hitting >30% ROI at any level but the $215s, you are losing money by not moving up. Ie it's a silly goal. Yes it is achievable by very good players at low limits, but it's not worth their time to play there.

[GrekeHaus]

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So, do most here agree that 44 percent itm over the long-term is attainable?

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I'm not sure because I've never played the 11s. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

However, you should try not to focus too much on your ITM and ROI (especially over a small sample size). Worry about making the correct plays and plugging leaks. You can still be a winning player with an ITM in the mid to high 30s and it's not like you're a failure if you don't attain 44%.

[vinyard]

IMO, 44% ITM is certainly attainable long-term at the 11s. As is a ROI over 30%. Why anybody who isn't very, very scared of variance would bother to "prove" (4000+ sample size) is beyond me especially since the 22s are only marginally tougher.

I am currently learning to ten table continuously right now (I like the idea of pumping out 50 800 chippers in 3 hours) at the 11s with aspirations of moving up to the 55s by the spring and through a decent sized sample have a ROI/ITM combo considerably higher than 30/44. I doubt its sustainable but I am certainly not going to be the variance boogeymens' guinea pig.

I realize that the mantra of this forum is to overplay the effects of variance to excuse poor play and tilt but if through 200 games you have a negative ROI at the 11s there is a very good chance your game is full of leaks.

My 11s SNGs from this weekend (Satuday and Sunday):

http://i11.photobucket.com/albums/a162/vinnyanddaisy/ROIandITMGraph.jpg

[tigerite]

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If you are hitting >30% ROI at any level but the $215s, you are losing money by not moving up. Ie it's a silly goal. Yes it is achievable by very good players at low limits, but it's not worth their time to play there.

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My last 112 $109s have had a 41% ROI with 44% ITM.. but I don't think I'll move up to the $215s just yet /images/graemlins/grin.gif

that looks perfectly sustainable /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Is it just me or have the calling requirements at the $11s gotten a lot looser as of late? I have been called off with real garbage the past few months when pushing late in the tourney. A/rag, K/7-k/9, Q/10s-qj; j/9, pp 22 and up. I want to move back to the 20s and 30s but I had to cashout awhile back and I like to move up when I have 200 buyins.

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Is it just me or have the calling requirements at the $11s gotten a lot looser as of late? I have been called off with real garbage the past few months when pushing late in the tourney. A/rag, K/7-k/9, Q/10s-qj; j/9, pp 22 and up. I want to move back to the 20s and 30s but I had to cashout awhile back and I like to move up when I have 200 buyins.

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Yes they are garbage (see my chart). It's great - money from the trees.

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Is it just me or have the calling requirements at the $11s gotten a lot looser as of late? I have been called off with real garbage the past few months when pushing late in the tourney. A/rag, K/7-k/9, Q/10s-qj; j/9, pp 22 and up. I want to move back to the 20s and 30s but I had to cashout awhile back and I like to move up when I have 200 buyins.

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Yes they are garbage (see my chart). It's great - money from the trees.

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Curious, what's the deal with the 4-1 ratio of seconds to firsts?

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Is it just me or have the calling requirements at the $11s gotten a lot looser as of late? I have been called off with real garbage the past few months when pushing late in the tourney. A/rag, K/7-k/9, Q/10s-qj; j/9, pp 22 and up. I want to move back to the 20s and 30s but I had to cashout awhile back and I like to move up when I have 200 buyins.

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Yes they are garbage (see my chart). It's great - money from the trees.

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Curious, what's the deal with the 4-1 ratio of seconds to firsts?

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I read Eastbay's (I think) post on pushing everyhand when heads up. I suck at heads up.

Oops, it wasn't Eastbay. Here's the post:

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The gem from Strassa was the fact that the absolute best your opponent can do against a push every hand, call every push strategy is to beat you 52% of time. That is an absolutely massive observation, and suggests that effective HU play (with relatively large blinds) beings with getting your chips in the middle on every hand, and can be improved by stripping out certain hands/situations from your push everything strategy.

HU is completely opposite from early SNG play. Early on the default is fold, and I need a real good reason to play a hand. HU the default is push, and I need a pretty compelling reason to do anything else.

BTW, the first time I came upon an opponent who pushed everything, I absolutely HATED playing him. After that point I was pretty much converted.


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Very nice bubble play.

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The gem from Strassa was the fact that the absolute best your opponent can do against a push every hand, call every push strategy is to beat you 52% of time. That is an absolutely massive observation, and suggests that effective HU play (with relatively large blinds) beings with getting your chips in the middle on every hand, and can be improved by stripping out certain hands/situations from your push everything strategy.

HU is completely opposite from early SNG play. Early on the default is fold, and I need a real good reason to play a hand. HU the default is push, and I need a pretty compelling reason to do anything else.

BTW, the first time I came upon an opponent who pushed everything, I absolutely HATED playing him. After that point I was pretty much converted.

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Hold up. I'm assuming we are talking about really large blinds here. HU is a lot more than just "fold or push" game. It's about training and adapting to your opponents. Push every hand on me and we'll see who wins. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

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The gem from Strassa was the fact that the absolute best your opponent can do against a push every hand, call every push strategy is to beat you 52% of time. That is an absolutely massive observation, and suggests that effective HU play (with relatively large blinds) beings with getting your chips in the middle on every hand, and can be improved by stripping out certain hands/situations from your push everything strategy.

HU is completely opposite from early SNG play. Early on the default is fold, and I need a real good reason to play a hand. HU the default is push, and I need a pretty compelling reason to do anything else.

BTW, the first time I came upon an opponent who pushed everything, I absolutely HATED playing him. After that point I was pretty much converted.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hold up. I'm assuming we are talking about really large blinds here. HU is a lot more than just "fold or push" game. It's about training and adapting to your opponents. Push every hand on me and we'll see who wins. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

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By the time you wait for AA-JJ to show up, you're down to 15 chips.

[The once and future king]

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Is it just me or have the calling requirements at the $11s gotten a lot looser as of late? I have been called off with real garbage the past few months when pushing late in the tourney. A/rag, K/7-k/9, Q/10s-qj; j/9, pp 22 and up. I want to move back to the 20s and 30s but I had to cashout awhile back and I like to move up when I have 200 buyins.

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you want a roll of 4k to play 20s? 50 buy ins should be more than suffecient.

[runner4life7]

i push a ton of hands heads up and if you are not then thats a leak

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i push a ton of hands heads up and if you are not then thats a leak

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Of course I push hands heads up. Often I find myself HU with the blinds being fairly low (150/300) or something like that. If you are pushing all in or folding here you are missing opportunities to trap your opponent and seal the win. If you would rather just push everytime and leave it up to the luck of the cards, well power to you.

over my first 40 11s on PP i have a 52% itm..but for the first 28 i only 2 tabled, bumped it up to 4 table till i got to 40 and noticed a drop performance..but i didnt FEEL a drop, i felt like i played them fine, i just didnt win my flips and 60/40s...i mean, i felt a little rushed at times, but thats expected right? i should continue 4 tabling and just assume that its things evening out right?

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Of course I push hands heads up. Often I find myself HU with the blinds being fairly low (150/300) or something like that. If you are pushing all in or folding here you are missing opportunities to trap your opponent and seal the win. If you would rather just push everytime and leave it up to the luck of the cards, well power to you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Winner, winner, chicken dinner!!

...you should know that to come to any sort of idea about what your “actual” stats are, you’re going to have to play about 500 games at a level before anyone takes your numbers seriously

Citation: FAQ (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&Number=2821605&an=0&page=0# Post2821605)

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Is it just me or have the calling requirements at the $11s gotten a lot looser as of late? I have been called off with real garbage the past few months when pushing late in the tourney. A/rag, K/7-k/9, Q/10s-qj; j/9, pp 22 and up. I want to move back to the 20s and 30s but I had to cashout awhile back and I like to move up when I have 200 buyins.

[/ QUOTE ]

you want a roll of 4k to play 20s? 50 buy ins should be more than suffecient.

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Sorry, I meant 100 buyins. I just feel more comfortable moving up at 100 buyins than 50. Personal preference I guess.

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If you are hitting >30% ROI at any level but the $215s, you are losing money by not moving up. Ie it's a silly goal. Yes it is achievable by very good players at low limits, but it's not worth their time to play there.

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eh... no. if your itm is 31% your not making profit. 33% should be the least since top 3 gets paid and thats 33% of 10. the ideal itm to be around is 39 i believe. havnt been in 11's for a long time so i dont no whats possible there.

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If you are hitting >30% ROI at any level but the $215s, you are losing money by not moving up. Ie it's a silly goal. Yes it is achievable by very good players at low limits, but it's not worth their time to play there.

[/ QUOTE ]

eh... no. if your itm is 31% your not making profit. 33% should be the least since top 3 gets paid and thats 33% of 10. the ideal itm to be around is 39 i believe. havnt been in 11's for a long time so i dont no whats possible there.

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eh ... 3 out of 10 is 30%, as far as I can recall.

[Mr_J]

I'm sure you can tell the difference between 'roi' and 'itm', so please go back and re-read my post again /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[AlphaWice]

nah, you are right - we are all just problem gamblers, and profit is impossible.

[Mr_J]

Yeh well I got 12 1sts in my 20 sngs today at the 22s. I'm movin up to the $55s /images/graemlins/wink.gif Then again, I am meant to be a $55er?

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If you are hitting >30% ROI at any level but the $215s, you are losing money by not moving up. Ie it's a silly goal. Yes it is achievable by very good players at low limits, but it's not worth their time to play there.

[/ QUOTE ]


goood u r listening... i was just testing u..
eh... no. if your itm is 31% your not making profit. 33% should be the least since top 3 gets paid and thats 33% of 10. the ideal itm to be around is 39 i believe. havnt been in 11's for a long time so i dont no whats possible there.

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eh ... 3 out of 10 is 30%, as far as I can recall.

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goood u r listening... i was just testing u..


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