View Full Version : ($33) JJ bubble vs Big Bully
Pasterbator
12-18-2005, 03:30 PM
So i was lost. How short does shorty have to be for this to be a fold? Assume big stack is pushing top 50%. How about any 2? He has been pushing almost every hand since we got down to 4, so any 2 wouldnt be too far off.
Blinds 100/200
Shorty ~400
Button ~1800
Bully ~ 4600
Hero ~ 1200
2 Folds. Bully pushes.
Hero has JJ.
Hero does what?
If i fold, what can i call with?
tigerite
12-18-2005, 03:40 PM
Nasty situation.. I think I could find a call here, simply because you'll otherwise be pushing any two into the shorty who will call any two, and losing that will leave you as the short stack.
tigerite
12-18-2005, 03:42 PM
If he really is pushing any two btw, you should definitely call. The inflection point (I'm allowing also for a slight reduction in UTG's stack as he will definitely lose chips overall the next round, whatever happens) is 53% push for SB.
bluefeet
12-18-2005, 03:42 PM
top 50% is QQ+....close enough for me. he should be pushing any two here (becoming 99+). you're short stack after passing through these blinds if/when shortie doubles in his. if you had even 400 more chips, folding would be easier - if not prudent.
tigerite
12-18-2005, 03:43 PM
Top 53% is JJ+ blue.. 3% is just really such a small difference in hands that I'm taking the risk here. Anyway you have to be only around about 70% favourite here, so even if he has Ax or Kx (with x below Q obviously) you're calling correctly.
ace_in_the_hole
12-18-2005, 04:15 PM
I have to call with only 6bb behind, plus you have a read on him which should be a HUGE factor in your decision to call. He is probably drawing to 3 outs.
Pasterbator
12-18-2005, 04:21 PM
Well i figured that JJ was very close either way. After taking up most of my time bank, i decided to fold. I'm in a nice little 25 buyin downswing, so i figured that if i could just get into the money, maybe it would help mentally.
That doesn't usually affect my decision, but if i had lost that hand, it would have hurt more than normal.
It might be -EV in the short term, but +EV in the long term (mentally.) Does that make sense, or am i just trying to convince myself i made the right move?
tigerite
12-18-2005, 05:12 PM
The latter.. sorry.
Pasterbator
12-18-2005, 05:23 PM
ehh, good to know. Thanks for the replies.
NuklearWinter
12-18-2005, 05:33 PM
Easy call. ~70% chance to basically lock in a money finish and great chance at 2nd or 1st is a no brainer. Folding here is just too weak for me. Even if you are on a bad losing streak you shouldnt factor that into your decision here, it has nothing to do with the current game.
Just stick to your normal game. You may pick up bad habits (eg you might find yourself subconsciously going for a safe itm over playing for first).
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