11r, how thee tempts me.

[Chief911]

Late in the rebuy. I have a tight image (If anyone is paying attention), and have only shown down big hands. No particular read on villian. he is not out of line.

Level XX (10000/20000)
Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: Chief911 (421130 in chips)
Seat 2: ACETEAM55555 (532555 in chips)
Seat 3: jrdowns (329418 in chips)
Seat 4: spacejam08 (237626 in chips)
Seat 6: BREWER_RICK (529570 in chips)
Seat 7: HuntingDucks (279440 in chips)
Seat 8: SicilianDfnc (297742 in chips)
Seat 9: gparker1 (263544 in chips)

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Chief911 [3d Ad]
spacejam08: folds
BREWER_RICK: folds
HuntingDucks: folds
ACETEAM55555 said, "i had a 4 with a 2 kicker"
ACETEAM55555 said, "lol"
SicilianDfnc: folds
gparker1: folds
Chief911: raises 40000 to 60000
ACETEAM55555: calls 50000
Chief911 said, "thats a hot hand"
jrdowns: folds
*** FLOP *** [9c 7d 8d]
ACETEAM55555: checks

How do you proceed from here? I'm probably 7th or 8th in overall stack.

Nick

[1p0kerb0y]

I bet ~80K but there is only one way I'm getting off this hand. If he check-raises all-in I call. If he calls and checks the turn I'm taking a free card. If he calls and bets big on the turn I fold.

I continue bet 1/2 pot. He could have called w/ AK to AT or any pair or high suited connectors. If he comes back over the top, see what the pot odds are for the call or fold decision on hitting the flush, the flop probably helped him.

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
I continue bet 1/2 pot. He could have called w/ AK to AT or any pair or high suited connectors. If he comes back over the top, see what the pot odds are for the call or fold decision on hitting the flush, the flop probably helped him.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like a continuation bet. With a draw, either bet big or check behind. If you are going to continuation bet, push to a raise.

You could even just push. It might look like a draw, but it might be hard to call with the coordinated board.

The flush draw plus ace is pretty strong. I would play it strongly and try to take down the pot.

I would lean heavily on a read here. If I felt he was going for a checkraise, then, naturally, I check. If he was pretty straightforward or I have seen villain call similar raises then fold to a postflop bet, then I probably bet near the pot size, w/ the intention of getting it all-in if he checkraises. If I have no reads, I probably take the safe route and take my free card.

[Eder]

Why not push? Villian knows at best he has a coin flip...

[1p0kerb0y]

I feel that pushing is also a very good option.

[betgo]

What's wrong with just pushing? There is 140K in the pot and you have 360K. Even against a set or straight, you have significant outs. If you get called by a pair, it is close with pot odds.

The push looks suspicious, but it is hard for villain to know if it is a strong flush draw, a strong striaght draw, an over pair, or two pair.

You could also make a probe bet of say 40K. If villain calls, you get a chance to make your flush. If villain folds, that's great. If villain raises, push.

Calling in the SB, villain could have hit this flop hard or completely missed it. But let him make the tough decision.

[Copernicus]

I generally dont like laying 3/1 odds with this little information on the opponents hand. It is a situation where you are likely to be called by better hands, and worse hands fold.

However, he simply called a possible steal pre-flop, so you cant put him on very much, and his flop check is very risky with a medium-strong hand with that board.

The A may well be good right now and without a draw to the nut flush he's got a very hard time calling a push.

With all of the FE and the flush draw I like the push too.

[Dave D]

I think the question here is are there any arguments against a standard continuation bet, like 2/3 the pot?

edit: Posted this without seeing other responses. Not sure if I like a push just b/c you're putting your whole tourney on the line here. Something about villian's play makes me suspect a high pair. That would be how I would play a high pair in his situation.

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the question here is are there any arguments against a standard continuation bet, like 2/3 the pot?

[/ QUOTE ]

What's the purpose and plan behind this bet?

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
I generally dont like laying 3/1 odds with this little information on the opponents hand. It is a situation where you are likely to be called by better hands, and worse hands fold.

However, he simply called a possible steal pre-flop, so you cant put him on very much, and his flop check is very risky with a medium-strong hand with that board.

The A may well be good right now and without a draw to the nut flush he's got a very hard time calling a push.

With all of the FE and the flush draw I like the push too.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, so if you called you are probably behind. If you are called by a pair, it is something like 53-47, so you are ahead with pot odds versus folding. If your opponent folds, you pick up 140K chips.

[IMTheWalrus8]

[ QUOTE ]
Late in the rebuy. I have a tight image (If anyone is paying attention), and have only shown down big hands. No particular read on villian. he is not out of line.

Level XX (10000/20000)
Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: Chief911 (421130 in chips)
Seat 2: ACETEAM55555 (532555 in chips)
Seat 3: jrdowns (329418 in chips)
Seat 4: spacejam08 (237626 in chips)
Seat 6: BREWER_RICK (529570 in chips)
Seat 7: HuntingDucks (279440 in chips)
Seat 8: SicilianDfnc (297742 in chips)
Seat 9: gparker1 (263544 in chips)

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Chief911 [3d Ad]
spacejam08: folds
BREWER_RICK: folds
HuntingDucks: folds
ACETEAM55555 said, "i had a 4 with a 2 kicker"
ACETEAM55555 said, "lol"
SicilianDfnc: folds
gparker1: folds
Chief911: raises 40000 to 60000
ACETEAM55555: calls 50000
Chief911 said, "thats a hot hand"
jrdowns: folds
*** FLOP *** [9c 7d 8d]
ACETEAM55555: checks

How do you proceed from here? I'm probably 7th or 8th in overall stack.

Nick

[/ QUOTE ]

Trying to force myself to post more. Here we go ...

Curious to know: 1. how many players are left?; 2. had you been taking down pots with continuation bets? This would make a bet look standard for you; 3. had you been stealing (or looked like you were stealing) any blinds?

This looks like a 1/2 to 2/3 pot-sized bet. There's a good chance he folds, we have a nut flush draw and want a nice pot if we hit.

Kinda smells like a set for some reason. JT probably bets into the flush draw.

I'd play it like I had the overpair my raise could represent - bet 100k. If he CR pushes I'm calling based on the value of my draw, if he calls I know I'm behind and that he's not going anywhere. If I miss the turn and he leads I'm done, if he checks the turn I check behind. I don't like a small continuation bet because it's inconsistent with what I'd expect a hand to do w/ this board and just invites him to make a play at me. I don't like the push as much because if he has a big hand he's inclined to slowplay I don't have a chance get away from my hand when the turn blanks and I'm way behind.

[Chief911]

There were 25 people left at this time.

I had not been pounding people preflop and taking pots with continuations. I had shown down monsters only recently.

Nick

[Matador225]

I bet 3/4 of the pot here. If he raises I push and if he calls and checks the flop I check behind. If he leads out on the flop I probably fold, but it depends on how much it is to call.

[gumpzilla]

1) I think you want thou, not thee.

2) Especially if you've been tight, I think firing out a normal 1/2-2/3 pot continuation bet on the flop is fine. The real question is what to do when raised. The connectedness of the board suggests that there are numerous other draws that he could be pushing with here if you bet and he wants to come over the top, so I think that it's conceivable that you could call being ahead, or frequently with 12 instead of 9 outs. So I'm probably betting and calling a push.

For those who advocate betting and calling a push, then why not just push? Give villain the hard decision.

[IMTheWalrus8]

Just a thought ...

Is a check really that bad here? The problem with a continuation bet is that we have some tough decisions if he calls. If we bet 100K on the flop, we're left with a 260K stack and a 350K pot. And if he calls on this board, it's too likely that he's ahead. If we miss our flush on the turn, what are we going to do if he checks? How about if he bets?

360K is a good stack, and we should be able to find a better spot to put it all in. I'm just not sure how to evaluate the F/E of a continuation bet on the flop here.

For the record, I'm probably betting 100k in the heat of battle.

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]
For those who advocate betting and calling a push, then why not just push? Give villain the hard decision.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think pushing necessarily does a better job of getting better hands out here - anything that this guy is pushing/raising us with on the flop seems like it will probably also call a somewhat fishy looking 2x pot push, particularly on this amazingly draw heavy board. It's also a relatively large deviation from how I'd play most flops, and I try to avoid doing that when possible.

[davidross]

Actually I don't think a push looks suspicious at all. Wouldn't you push here with an overpair on that board?

In this situation I think the bigger question is what do I think this guy called with in the SB? Do you have much of a read on him? I can't imagine we are ahead here, but if he's got AK or AQ he'll have a hard time calling a big bet. Would he play T9 here?

Personally I check this flop almost every time. Re evaluate after the turn.

[Proofrock]

You're about 2 to 1 against making your flush by the river, and you can count your ace as a partial out. you have t360k and the pot is ~t140k. Pot odds dictate you can't fold to a c-r if you bet anything more than ~1/2 pot. Since I can't fold to any reasonable c-r, I like betting the flop between t90k and t120k, with 100k being my first choice.

If Villain c-r, you get all-in on the flop.
If Villain c-calls, checks the turn you have a choice:
-take a free card if you miss
-push if you miss
-check behind if you hit (representing a missed CB)
-bet whatever you think will get the money in the middle if you hit

My personal favorite of these choices is to push the turn if you miss. Firing on two streets against one of the few players who can break you would make me read you for a very big hand, and I expect you have a lot of FE. Of course, for that very reason pushing the turn may be stupid.

If Villain check-calls flop, leads the turn, then I'd let pot odds make the decision for me.

I really hate pushing here, if for no other reason than it looks like missed overs/a draw. I rarely see AA-88 push here.

ummm... how exactly does that 'smell like a set' to you? His only actions were calling a raise preflop (with a very wide range) and checking the dangerous flop (with almost the exact same wide range)

[IMTheWalrus8]

[ QUOTE ]
ummm... how exactly does that 'smell like a set' to you? His only actions were calling a raise preflop (with a very wide range) and checking the dangerous flop (with almost the exact same wide range)

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right. I'm using the "probably not posted unless there is something tricky coming" line of thinking.

Still think a check might be correct here.

[Chief911]

Lets go one further.

I bet 100k. He pushes. Hero...

Nick

[Dave D]

[ QUOTE ]
Lets go one further.

I bet 100k. He pushes. Hero...

Nick

[/ QUOTE ]

When you asked about my plan...

I think I would fold to his push in the heat of battle. I would figure that my bet was basically to test him, he probably has a high pair. With all the discussion of pot odds and such though I realize now that it seems pretty correct to call. The only thing we're super behind here is aces. Evertyhing else villian could have pretty much leaves us with 9+3 outs. Unless Villian has like A9,A8,A7, or Aces.

I think the only argument against a call is that with only 30 people left you could concievably walk away here and still be fairly in the running.

[Eder]

[ QUOTE ]
Lets go one further.

I bet 100k. He pushes. Hero...

Nick

[/ QUOTE ]


I dunno how you could fold here...hope you called and rivered his ass

[Benal]

[ QUOTE ]
Lets go one further.

I bet 100k. He pushes. Hero...

Nick

[/ QUOTE ]

The way you played it, I call, but I'd probably check behind on the flop. I may also have pushed, only because I hate calling allin on a draw.

[CardSharpCook]

I like the open push too. That was my first thought, then checked the stacks to see if it made sense and it does. You're coin-flipping vs a pair. You also fold a lot of pairs. Once he pushes, you obviously call. You've created that pot, for good or ill.

[IMTheWalrus8]

[ QUOTE ]
Lets go one further.

I bet 100k. He pushes. Hero...

Nick

[/ QUOTE ]

We have odds to call. So the continuation bet pot-commits us to this push.

I don't know - the problem is that any time villain calls our bet we are behind, and we're going to have a difficult decision on the turn unless we hit our flush.

If we check, it's going to be difficult for Villain to bet into the turn because of the coordinated board and our tight image. And he'll probably bet into a non-flush board on the turn if he has us beat, which gives us an easier decision on the turn.

I think this is enough to make the check the best option. And I'm starting to think a push may be better than the 100k bet.

[Chief911]

Here's my thoughts on this, post-mortem.

I think there are three options here, and I probably took the worst one (Unless he would have folded, in which case we would not be talking about this hand).

You could make a good case for checking behind here with a big draw. I think Harrington even talks about this in HoH2.

Pushing also would be fine. It tells him you aren't going to fold to shenanigans. And its a nice fat draw.

Results suck: I call. He has KdT? for an OESD and overcards. Turn was a T non-diamond, and the river was a brick. IGHN.

Nick

[CardSharpCook]

meh? You got your money in with the best hand. He had 12 outs, but you have 7 nut redraw outs, and 10 outs to 6 of his outs. Not to mention the 6 split pot outs you picked up.

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
Here's my thoughts on this, post-mortem.

I think there are three options here, and I probably took the worst one (Unless he would have folded, in which case we would not be talking about this hand).

You could make a good case for checking behind here with a big draw. I think Harrington even talks about this in HoH2.

Pushing also would be fine. It tells him you aren't going to fold to shenanigans. And its a nice fat draw.

Results suck: I call. He has KdT? for an OESD and overcards. Turn was a T non-diamond, and the river was a brick. IGHN.

Nick

[/ QUOTE ]

You got the money in a 64% favorite, which EVwise was better than having him fold to a push.

I said push > check > bet close to pot > continuation bet.

With the coordinated board, villain is likely to think he has something whatever you do.