Million Guaranteed hand:

[palman]

About 65 people left in the million guaranteed, average stack is in the range of 35-45k and I'm sitting on 27,000T in the BB with KQo.

Blinds 1000/2000.

UTG has about 70k and this is the 2nd time I've played with him. He likes to limp most broadway cards, and he limps. Folded to button and he calls, SB folds and we see a Q97 flop 3 way, rainbow.

The button I don't have a great read on. The table has been incredibly tight preflop, but I've been sitting here for an hour and he's yet to raise the button when folded to him which was often. If I had to guess he was a player who qualified through a satellite and might be out of his element, but that's just a guess.

I check with the intention of going for a c/r here, UTG fires 10k into the 7500 chip pot, and the button flat calls.

Who goes with it? I'm slightly below average and winning here would give me a great shot at a FT, since I'd be almost double the average where everyone is playing scared. But while I read UTG as being able to play any two broadway here, my read could be wrong and he's definately interested in the hand. QJ, Q10 and J10 are the only hands I'm ahead of (I'm thinking he raises AQ), and the button smooth call, means most likely J10 or a set.

[betgo]

Push preflop.

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]
Push preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

7k up for grabs. make sure you are the one that gets it. other than that, even iwth the flat call, can be any number of hands.. call me a donk but i think theres a decent chance one of them has QJ and TJ, or something similar, and im playing for 218k. i get my chips in. but yea shove pf. holla

[adanthar]

When the button calls that bet it means he has KQ beat or he's a donkey of a caliber greater than should be left in that tourney, but yeah, just shove PF.

[betgo]

You said the first limper limps with a lot of hands, particularly 2 broadway cards. All you are worried about is that the first limper is trapping with a hand that dominates KQ. KQ is slightly behind Ax or a pp if you get called, but you would have pot odds. This is a perfect hand to semibluff push with.

[Maulik]

as others have said, there is simply no way to not push PF.

[palman]

A case can certainly be made for either pushing preflop or leading out on the flop, but I'm more interested in what to do once you've checked the flop.

As per the action, I'm not as much worried about UTG as I am the smooth caller. (although there is a chance UTG has AA or KK here) There are really only 2 reasonable hands you can put the smooth caller on. If I push at this point, I have to assume I have no real fold equity over the smooth callers J10 or set. Furthermore, I think its safe to say UTG is not on a pure steal here. He doesn't have Ax or a medium pocket pair. I think UTG's range is AA, KK, KQ, QJ, Q10, J10.

Given that, do you push or fold after this action?

[KramerTM]

You'd have to put both these players on VERY specific hands to make it correct to push here. In other words, by not pushing PF, you got yourself in a sticky situation that's tough to figure out. You're OOP, so you need to push this PF to avoid having to make these tough decisions later.

OK, fine. We checked PF. Now what?

Well, you were planning to CR, but now you are doubting yourself because of a call. I think it comes down to this...

If this is a table where I have been able to pick my spots and steal blinds at will, then I think this is a fold. If not, then I think it is a push.

[freehat]

Push preflop, cr flop all-in.

[palman]

What makes the decision tough for me is that I have to dodge two people here who, to this point, have played the hand EXACTLY as they would if they had monsters. (although I suppose rockets or K's would not be such a large overbet on the flop, but this would all be guessing because I would have never seen this player play many hands after the flop in such a way. But in general, the betting pattern suggests something more in the KQ-QJ range) When up against one opponnent its much easier to just go with it.

While I may even agree that a push here can be correct PF, I'm surprised how unanimous it is. A push PF would certainly not be read by any of my opponnents as a monster hand, I'm risking 27k to win 7k, and UTG while he has shown some broadway limps, I'm not suggesting that he's limping 3x an orbit or anything. An UTG limp is still an UTG limp, and I've got a 14x BB stack. I'm not saying I necessarily disagree with it, but how often does it have to be successful to warrant pushing a 27k to win 7k? What's the EV of the situation if UTG is limping with a hand that dominates you 30% of the time?

As per the table dynamics, pretty much the 5 players on my left were all shortstacks and had busted out in the past 30 minutes and were replaced by a mix of players I had virtually no read on.

I think the biggest case for pushing is simply if I do take it down, I'll have almost a double the average stack and then can attack people and blinds with little or no fear.

[Dan Mezick]

You exit now because you are likely beat. If you in this pot you are almost sure to be a dog. If UTG was not called maybe you go with the planned check-raise just to be sure he has it.

The overbet is suspicious. The call isnt.

Get out and look for a better pot. The BTN called an overbet. KQo isnt anything to be proud of here.

There are worse sins in poker than occasionally folding the best hand.

Your stack is below average and you have 13.5 bigblinds left. Look for a better spot-- to push.

Usually that spot must include the opportunity to be first in.

In my view there absolutley no argument for pushing here that makes any rational sense, unless you are in the mood to gamble ie, wager at unfavorable odds.