Is this just gambling or deep thinking?

[sirio11]

Hi all, I'm back to online tourneys and this is an interesting hand for the Grand Tournament V, 1k entry fee. Starting chips were 10k and 30 mins levels.

Blinds are 500-1000, about 180 players left from the original 637.

UTG has 100k, LP has 40k and BT has 70k

UTG raises to 4k, LP calls the 4k, BT then raises to 12k

Now, UTG folds and LP moves all in for 40k, BT calls.

LP- AK
BT- 77

I would like to hear your opinions on both players; Are they gamblers or good poker thinkers?

No reads at all in the players, I was just moved to this table.

[CardSharpCook]

LP is pretty donktastic. The PF call is ok, but the raise is just silly. Your range gets pretty well narrowed to a mid-PP, and someone raising a UTG raiser and a limper has either AK or a bigger PP.

I don't like the reraise with AK and position by the the BT. You've got a chance to win a real big pot if you flop nicely. It is ok though. The call after the push is a no-brainer IMHO. LP has pretty clearly defined his hand.

[ononimo]

LP has AK. BT has 77.

[woodguy]

I don't mind LP's push. Button looks like he's squeezing and you can win a lot of chips without even seeing a flop here, and if he's called he's rarely far behind and often far ahead the dead $$$ anf FE make his raise good. I may raise PF to isolate instead of calling the first time, but that's splitting hairs.

Button: I wouldn't raise there as I want to hit my set against multiple opponents. Calling LP's push is pretty iffy, often he's dominated, rarely is he doing the dominating. His raise isn't enough to get both hands to lay down either, too low, he is going to have the betting lead if it goes to a flop but if he gets played back at on most flops he'll have to lay down..

Regards,
Woodguy

[CardSharpCook]

Oh geez!!! OK, I don't mind push by LP. He is pretty well defind as a mid PP, so he gets AQ to call. He can't call this raise and play this hand OOP, so pushing is his best bet. Folding is ok too. It is close.

The 77 is super-donktastic. You've got a great limping hand AND position and now you are going to throw all that away by raising? Terrible. Calling the push is close because of the stack sizes involved, but you play poorly vs. his range.

[MLG]

I really dislike the play by the button, although I wouldnt mind it as much if he had like 200k. If I have 77 there im looking to play a flop in position, flop a set and double through UTG. Im not sure what I think about LP play. I understand not reraising initially as with 40x you might feel to deep to get it all-in preflop (and i hate reraising and folding to a push). Once you get reraised though you are in an awful spot. If you call there is about 30k in the pot with 38k in your stack and you are out of position. Folding and leaving yourself with 36k seems pretty weak to me though it cant be worse than calling. Pushing is also unappealing because typically the reraisers range there is fairly tight and unlikely to include AQ. On the other hand with a bunch of dead money in the pot you dont mind flipping a coin at the moment. Mehhh, I hate all the options but I'm hesitantly leaning towards the push.

Why is he squeezing? Because he saw Dan Harrington do it w/ 62 offsuit on T.V. and wants to tell his buddies about it later? It just doesn't seem right since we know nothing. However, since we know nothing about the table, I hate the squeeze play here against an UTG raiser unless he knows that the player is an active raiser and can raise from EP with a wide range and can get him to fold. As for LP's play, I don't mind it since he didn't call. If the circumstances make a squeeze play look good then I like the push a lot since, like stated above, if he calls he has one pot sized bet left and is out of position for the hand. Folding may seem weak tight here but I think your a dog to every hand your up against in this spot and actually think this is the best play for normal play.

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]
I think your a dog to every hand your up against in this spot

[/ QUOTE ]

There is 21.5K in the pot when it gets back to LP, and he pushes for 40K more. If he called every time by AA-77, AK he is 41-59 dog, but the price makes this push +EV everytime, even if he's getting called everytime by that range.

Throw in some FE and a little donk equity for the times this is done by a dominated A and this is a pretty easy push.


Regards,
Woodguy

[Melchiades]

I hate BT's play. Like LP's play.

[sirio11]

[ QUOTE ]
I hate BT's play. Like LP's play.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks, I was the one with the AK in LP. Basically I followed that line for the reasons stated by MLG.
I have to add that since he just reraised 3 times the original raise; I didnt think he had a pair like TT-QQ; AA and KK are a possibility, but since I had AK, I took my chances. I saw his raise as if he wants to take control of the pot, telling us he has a monster with the 3x raise versus 2 players. I put him to the test and he called instantly. After the hand I was wondering if plays like this one work since there are just too many players nowadays willing to die with a medium pair.

[adanthar]

I posted a pretty close hand to yours a while back and I play AK/occasional big pairs like that occasionally. This works much better when you know he can do this with hands you're ahead of and not just pairs, but if he did it with 77 he's donkish enough so he'd also be able to have AQ.

I like this play a little better when I had the opportunity to coldcall kings first, but there just aren't too many of those times around, y'know?

[A_PLUS]

Havent read through yet, so sorry if repetitive.

I will assume that no player has been out of line (which could justify any play really, depending on the degree)

It looks to me like you have some typical online MTTers who have failed to adjust to having 40xBB this late in a tournament.

I dont like either play really. Into a EP raise and a call, I'm not going to advocate raising with 77, without at least making it very difficult for hands like 88-JJ to call. But I would think you can expect a call more often than not, with 2 players getting >2-1 on a call. I mean what are you hoping for? Are you planning to fold to a K J 4 flop, when LP pushes? I have no problem with a call by 77, everyone is deep enough for the implied odds for me.

Now, onto AK. We cant really expect BT to fold now, so it comes down to his range. Against complete unknowns, I am folding here. I assume JJ+ AK for an unknown range there. Too cautious, probably, but I dont like putting 40xBB in the pot with someone showing some very serious strength with AK. Now, that could chnage very very dramatically within an orbit or two at the table. But complete unknown, its a fold for me. 20xBB, push.

[A_PLUS]

[ QUOTE ]

It looks to me like you have some typical online MTTers who have failed to adjust to having 40xBB this late in a tournament.


[/ QUOTE ]

See Sirio, if you would just play some deep stacked tournaments, you would understand.... /images/graemlins/blush.gif

[MLG]

[ QUOTE ]
After the hand I was wondering if plays like this one work since there are just too many players nowadays willing to die with a medium pair.


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think the problem is specifically with medium pairs. I think the situation your running into is that players used to shallow stacks are much much much much to willing to go broke with marginal hands when deeper. Basically if he'll go broke with 77 there he'll go broke with AQ and thats good for you.

[A_PLUS]

It really is a tough adjustment to make. When a MTT goes crazy, and I am playing late with 40-50xBB without being a large stack, I have to admit I feel quite lost on a lot of situations. Many of the the typical tools (blind steals, resteals, become a very different animal, especially when you are setting yourself up (like BT did) to be getting 2-1 on an all-in call you should hate to make.

It's also strange how players react to it. I have found my best strategies usually revolve around the fact that players often fail to adjust their standards for calling a push with 15 vs 40xBB, but I feel many overcompensate to the other extreme post flop. So, I have been seeing many more flops with position, and defending my blinds over restealing. Pretty basic I know, but it has really helped me in these situations.

[Stipe_fan]

MLG,

What do you do if a King or a Queen flops? (rainbow, no str8 draw or flush draws)

How would you proceed with the given stacks assuming the BT just calls the 4K?

If he bets out 8K what do you do?

Thanks for your insight,

Stipe

Given your assessment of his range and willingness to take the chance here would you consider a stop-and-go or is the fold equity/pot odds combo clearly dominant in your analysis?

For secondary learning ... if you put him on 55-99, AA/KK, AK, AQs and knew you'd get called you're getting marginally appropriate pot odds (if I did the math right) but do you take that amount of edge in that spot.