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View Full Version : $16 turbo 99 from SB on bubble

12-17-2005, 07:22 PM
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

BB (t2985)
UTG (t5590)
Button (t2375)
Hero (t2550)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t1200</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero ??</font>

Villain has not been bullying with his big stack, if anything he has passed a couple of opportunities. But, he got a big portion of his stack when he made a 3xBB raise from the button and then called an all-in from one of the blinds with 33 to get us from 5-handed to 4-handed just a few hands ago, so there hasn't been much time to see how he handles the big stack.
tigerite
12-17-2005, 07:43 PM
I (begrudgingly) fold.
splashpot
12-17-2005, 07:45 PM
I probably fold. Don't think there is much chance that he folds.
therock
12-17-2005, 07:47 PM
99 does quite well in this situation, but not worth the risk vs. a somewhat passive big stack. Fold and look to attack the other two opponents. FWIW, I would call either of the other two opponets...
splashpot
12-17-2005, 07:48 PM
[ QUOTE ]
FWIW, I would call either of the other two opponets...

[/ QUOTE ]
That doesn't make any sense...
tigerite
12-17-2005, 07:54 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I probably fold. Don't think there is much chance that he folds.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would say about 10%, which by my fuzzy maths (assuming the SB and BB don't wake up with a hand they like, and thus call - I didn't bother with that bit) means he has to be raising around top 24% of hands. Normally this would be the case but from the OP's description, not here.
therock
12-17-2005, 08:01 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
FWIW, I would call either of the other two opponets...

[/ QUOTE ]
That doesn't make any sense...

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess the BB can't open raise PF...

Anyway, I would call a raise/push from the button if UG (big stack) folded. In general, I would go to battle vs. the 3000 stack or the 2375 stack with 99 in a similar type of situation. Just don't want to mess with the big stack.
11t
12-17-2005, 08:02 PM
push, i think you and the other shorties are close enough and desperate enough that this is an acceptable gamble. I dunno, UTG could have anything and you he is prolly raising/calling with a-x&lt;9 and pp's &lt;99 so I dunno.

could be a leak of mine.
splashpot
12-17-2005, 08:03 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
FWIW, I would call either of the other two opponets...

[/ QUOTE ]
That doesn't make any sense...

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess the BB can't open raise PF...

Anyway, I would call a raise/push from the button if UG (big stack) folded. In general, I would go to battle vs. the 3000 stack or the 2375 stack with 99 in a similar type of situation. Just don't want to mess with the big stack.

[/ QUOTE ]
What's the difference? If you lose an all in to the Button, you're left with 175 chips. So essentially out. The point is to avoid that coinflip.
therock
12-17-2005, 08:07 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
FWIW, I would call either of the other two opponets...

[/ QUOTE ]
That doesn't make any sense...

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess the BB can't open raise PF...

Anyway, I would call a raise/push from the button if UG (big stack) folded. In general, I would go to battle vs. the 3000 stack or the 2375 stack with 99 in a similar type of situation. Just don't want to mess with the big stack.

[/ QUOTE ]
What's the difference? If you lose an all in to the Button, you're left with 175 chips. So essentially out. The point is to avoid that coinflip.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you win vs. BB or Button you are basically in the money fighting for first. If you win vs. UG you have a nice chip lead but still work to do. Plus 99 is better than a coinflip vs. random opponents. A strong read could make a bit of a difference.
tigerite
12-17-2005, 08:08 PM
[ QUOTE ]
push, i think you and the other shorties are close enough and desperate enough that this is an acceptable gamble. I dunno, UTG could have anything and you he is prolly raising/calling with a-x&lt;9 and pp's &lt;99 so I dunno.

could be a leak of mine.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he calls 100% of the time you should definitely fold here, his range has to be pretty damn big (41%) for it to be profitable. With a slight (10%) chance of a fold though this drops quite sharply to 25%.
45suited
12-17-2005, 08:18 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Villain has not been bullying with his big stack, if anything he has passed a couple of opportunities.

[/ QUOTE ]

All the more reason to pass. You can both:

1) give him credit for a decent hand, and

2) have plenty of chances, after he folds, to be the first one pushing in later hands (probably more important)