($109) 75/150, Button pushes, your move?

[tigerite]

PartyPoker - NL Texas Hold'em $100 Buy-in + $9 Entry Fee Tournament | Level: 5 - 6 players (Converter: PGC (http://client.pokergrader.com))


Chip Counts:
Button: 1225 Chips
SB: 1120 Chips
<font color="red">Hero: 1595 Chips</font>
UTG: 1440 Chips
UTG+1: 2775 Chips
CO: 1845 Chips

Hero is BB with 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
Blinds are 75/150

PreFlop
<font color="blue">UTG folds</font>, <font color="blue">UTG+1 folds</font>, <font color="blue">CO folds</font>, Button is All-In
<font color="blue">SB folds</font>, <font color="green">Hero ?</font>

Villian has VP$IP and PFR stats of 18/6. He's a TAG for sure, and has been opening up his game in recent rounds.. almost certainly 2p2. His name is El__Tiburon, if that rings a bell with anyone.

[curtains]

I would fold...I don't think their range will be quite wide enough here.

[tigerite]

It certainly felt very close at the time. I think he'd be pushing around top 40% here. Of course the problem is if I fold A4o then can't he push more? And so on and so forth..

[curtains]

I don't think he is pushing the top 40%, unless I know him EXTREMELY well.

[curtains]

Please note that its breakeven to call if he is pushing the top 40%

[curtains]

This just isnt the spot where I want to use my skill. If Im playing a super regular that pushes an insane amount in such situations, then I may call, but I need quite a bit of evidence first.

[tigerite]

Yes I think you're probably right, and yeah I know it's breakeven for 40% /images/graemlins/smile.gif but I believe it would be more than breakeven as it'd give me the big stack on the table, 5 handed. The old "future $EV" argument. Anyway ok what would be the lowest range you'd call with here, A7o or so?

[curtains]

Sounds about right about A7o...I really don't like calling with A4o though unless I know a LOT about the opponent.

[tigerite]

I didn't love it at the time either.. anyway I did actually call and he had Q3o, and my hand held up, but it wasn't one I felt overly wonderful about, so I figured I'd post it.

[Shillx]

I would fold. Top 40% seems like a loose to reasonable assumption here, but A4o only wins about 47-48% of the time against that range. SNGPT shows it at breakeven against a 40% pusher, but pushing hands don't generally run along KS lines as the calling ranges tighten up. Against a better 40% range, it is a -EV call. At game speed I would assume he is on top 35% and would fold.

Just to clarify...

22+,A2+,K9o+,K4s+,Q9o+,Q5s+,J9o+,J7s+,T9o,T6s+,98o ,96s+,86s+,75s+,65s - You win 46.6% of the time against this range (a much better pushing range for him then what is in SNGPT)

You win 48.4% of the time against the KS range.