curtains hand #1 pushing range

[Maulik]

#Game No : 3203236468
***** Hand History for Game 3203236468 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $200 Buy-in + $15 Entry Fee Trny:18289500 Level:4 Blinds(50/100) - Thursday, December 15, 00:16:03 EDT 2005
Table Table 66679 (Real Money)
Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 1: mer0n ( $1280 )
Seat 3: RedVelvetJ ( $1960 )
Seat 4: wchen ( $1060 )
Seat 5: AIAlex ( $3410 )
Seat 6: txluckbox ( $1435 )
Seat 8: ILuvCurtains ( $855 )
Trny:18289500 Level:4
Blinds(50/100)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to ILuvCurtains [ x x ]
RedVelvetJ folds.
>You have options at Table 67033 Table!.
>You have options at Table 68769 Table!.
wchen folds.
AIAlex folds.
txluckbox folds.
ILuvCurtains is all-In [805]
mer0n folds.
ILuvCurtains does not show cards.
ILuvCurtains wins 955 chips

[kyro]

88+ (I may just raise AA/KK here to like 275/300 in hopes of getting a caller or two, but it depends on my mood), AJ+, KQ.

Maybe 77 too. Not sure.

*Edit* Yuck, read the post moron.

I thought curtains was more in middle position. So add on about 30 hands to my range.

[bluefeet]

any two will do!


(giving a frisky BB 22+,K8+,Q9+,JT+...we still get the top 90%)

[handsome]

If I'm reading the HH correctly, curtains is in the SB against mer0n's BB. His range is going to be pretty big.

[Maulik]

[ QUOTE ]
If I'm reading the HH correctly, curtains is in the SB against mer0n's BB. His range is going to be pretty big.

[/ QUOTE ]

you are, although bluefeet & kyro have significantly differnet ranges. and curtains isn't exactly in dire need of these chips.

[microbet]

Folded to the SB with 8 BBs is any two.

[microbet]

This one is elementary. I think Kyro is still misreading the hand.

[curtains]

FWIW I definitely don't blindly push any 2 from the SB into the BB in an 8x BB situation.

[microbet]

If it's a big loose stack or something, yeah, but unless there is something about this guy spite calling or something, it's any two and it often is when folded to you in the SB with 8bbs. You don't agree?

edit: yeah and of course things like being on the bubble with someone else ready to bust or something.

[curtains]

No I dont push as often as youd think. First in the $215s I see the same guys a lot, who will notice when I push in such spots all the time whether they are the BB or not. I dont want a reputation as some guy who pushes 100% of hands in situations where if your opponent knows that, they can exploit you. Its a rare opponent that I push with like 800 chips on 50-100 blinds with 53o. Of course I will do it sometimes, but definitely not always.

[microbet]

OK, I did lot of work on this one. First off, like bluefeet points out villian has to be pretty frisky for you to not push with any two, and I suspect Maulik put those XX's where 72o or some such went and curtain's did push trash.

However, if Villian KNOWS you push ANY two and knows what to do about it, you are toast if you have a crappy hand, because he is calling 57% of the time.

So, you are John Nash and villian is John Von Neuman, how often do you push? Well, this is a crap load of work and hopefully I wasn't way off, but it is about 40% of the time.

I can't show all my work on SNG powertools, dethgrind's site, pokerstove, a calculator and the back of an envelope, but my result looked something like:

.6 * .0929 + .4 * (.88 * .1085 + .22 * .4324 * .1811) = .1008

Where you push 22+, A2+, K2+, Q9o+, Q5s+, JTo+, J8s+, T9s

And he calls 33+, A4o+, A2s+, KTo+, K9s+

$EV you fold = .0929
$EV you push and he folds = .1085
$EV you push he calls you win = .1811

Your range wins .4324 vs his range

I probably made a mistake. I don't think this has anything to do with how you should play. If he's loose enough to call 30% of the time, so A2, you still push 77% of the time. That includes 42s and 54o, so if you accidentally include 53o it's not the end of the world. Now if he's really a spiteful caller you might have to drop a lot of the trash.

The game theory analysis above is wrong anyway and was a waste of time because it pretty much assumes they don't try and trick each other. I guess if the numbers are correct and you said here is this situation, and I'm going to make you two guys go through this a million times, this is what they'd do. Unless, of course, I'm all messed up.

Anyway, today was my birthday. For my present, forgive me for the above idiocy.

[ilya]

Happy Birthday!

[microbet]

Thanks sonny

[HonestIago15]

I'd say

Ax, 22+, K5+, Q8, J9, T9

[Roman]

22+ JTs+

[ QUOTE ]
Where you push 22+, A2+, K2+, Q9o+, Q5s+, JTo+, J8s+, T9s

And he calls 33+, A4o+, A2s+, KTo+, K9s+

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think this is the equilibrium point. Given that calling range, SB should push 100% (minimum edge needed = 0.0)

Some trial and error with SNGPT suggests that a calling range of 33% => an optimum pushing range of 61% => an optimum calling range of 34%; and a calling range of 34% => an optimum pushing range of 57% => an optimum calling range of 32%.

So, somewhere between a 33% and 34% calling range there is a pushing range between 57% and 61% that satisfies an equilbrium state.

A pushing range of: 22+,A2+,K2+,Q8o+,Q2s+,J8o+,J3s+,T7o+,T3s+,97o+,94s +,86o+,84s+,76o,74s+,65o,63s+,53s+

produces a calling range of:
22+,A2+,K7o+,K4s+,QTo+,Q8s+,JTo,J9s+,T9s

produces a pushing range of:
22+,A2+,K2+,Q6o+,Q2s+,J8o+,J2s+,T7o+,T3s+,97o+,95s +,86o+,84s+,76o,74s+,63s+,53s+,43s

producs a calling range of:
22+,A2+,K7o+,K4s+,Q9o+,Q8s+,JTo,J9s+

which means we're pretty close to the equilibrium point. (Remember that the percentages given don't exactly correspond to top x% of KS ranked hands, it seems that for these exercises a few of the low faces are dropped and a few low connectors and suited connectors are added.)

[microbet]

That sounds better to me and I confirmed your results. I tried doing it the same way as you did, but the problem I had was it is so unstable that if you start with numbers that aren't very close you end up swinging back and forth between always pushing and almost never pushing.

I think the method I used was right, but there were just so many places to make mistakes, especially pokerstove, that I probably just blew it.

However you look at it, there are some shockingly tight pushing ranges in this thread.

[Maulik]

Mr. Curtains pushed 83o here.

[curtains]

As I said, I do it sometimes /images/graemlins/smile.gif I wouldn't push 83o here everytime though, because then Im going to start getting some rather unpleasant calls at unopportune moments.