bear rumblings...

[scalf]

/forums/images/icons/blush.gif so arch was off by his initial guesstimate of crash starting 7-7-03.....hey the powers want to prop the market up...but the fall in bond prices is significant in my opinion....

i got a gift of about 25k in my 401k last quarter....immediately borrowed 30k to buy new house...lol..

time to go to long term out of money puts...and shorts...

when this baby starts to head south...it ain't gonna be pretty, and it'll be hard to get out...bottom in general u.s. stock markets will be around oct 2004...maybe demos will take oval office due to "it's the economy again"...

jmho...this advice is worth whatcha paid for it...lol..gl /forums/images/icons/cool.gif /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif

[adios]

"but the fall in bond prices is significant in my opinion...."

Generally speaking bond prices are at fairly low levels despite the recent backup in bond prices. Before the 21st century bond rally (how's that for catch phrase?), when was the last time we saw 4% on 10 year treasuries? Could definitely be wrong about this but I don't see the bond market yield rally going much further. The economy just isn't that strong IMO.

"time to go to long term out of money puts...and shorts..."

I expect a pull back in the stock market simply because it's run up so much and valuations don't seem to be all that compelling. You may laugh at this but I'd never bet money on my opinion though. I'm wrong far too often especially given the current situation. I'd have to have more evidence and I know that when stocks get knocked down they retrace some as well. Hey hasn't RMBS been doing well?