22: 77 from the button on the bubble

[IdiotVig]

BB has been pretty laggy all tourney. SB is a little weak/tight. Obvious push?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

SB (t1335)
BB (t3490)
UTG (t1400)
Hero (t1775)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif.
1 fold, Hero ?

[tigerite]

I'd push here.. the range of the BB has to be pretty humongous like any ace, pair, K9o+, K6s+, QTs+ and JTs. I understand he's a lag but a call outside of that range would be pretty ridiculous for most players. Even at a $22.

I struggle here with theory.

We basically have three players in a race for two spots, with you having a slight advantage because of stack. That means, theoretically, you have about a 70% chance of making the money at this point.

I think the BB's range is probably pretty huge here, no? If he calls, we are in a coin flip at best and at worst a huge dog to bigger pairs. I guess this is where ICM comes in? I finally just purchased SNGPT yesterday, so maybe I'll start to get a better understanding of things as I start to plug these type of hands into the calculator.

It appears I never made a point, which was supposed to be that I fear getting into (at best) coinflip situations when I am theoretically at 70%ish to make the money. Thoughts?

[durron597]

This is a pretty easy push.

[ QUOTE ]
This is a pretty easy push.

[/ QUOTE ]

By the way, I push this every time. I'm just trying to understand some basic theory.

[tigerite]

ucla, the reason is that the folds he makes (and yes even LAGs will fold here!) and the times he calls with A2-A7 make up for the times when he calls and you are a coinflip at best, and sometimes a big dog to 88+. $EV is strange that way, it mostly comes from how often your opponents fold. (That JJ example was an extremely rare one where the opposite was true)

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is a pretty easy push.

[/ QUOTE ]

By the way, I push this every time. I'm just trying to understand some basic theory.

[/ QUOTE ]

Read tigerite's post, that's why I didn't elaborate further

Yeah, I get this and have gotten it for awhile (but thanks for reiterating it), I guess it's harder to see it with 9xBB in this situation. Like I said, I think as I begin plugging hands into SNGPT I will start to better see and understand the inflection points.

To this point I have just kind of memorized without understanding, but am trying to ratchet my game up a notch by understanding the theory better and then, hopefully, having a better "feel" for situations and be able to make the right move under the clock/MTing pressure.

[junkmail3]

Do you understand ICM? (The theory behind SNGPT?) If not, there are a couple of posts on here, maybe even in the 'shadow' STT EVERYTHING YOU COULD WANT TO KNOW thread about it.

That's pretty much all of the theory involved with push/fold. Figure that out, add in some calling ranges, and you've got push/fold theory.

[junkmail3]

Yeah, check out this thread, it's all here:
Shadow's STT Thread (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Board=singletable&Number=191873 5&fpart=1&PHPSESSID=)

When you discount blinds 50% and use the default average range (66+,ATs+,AJo+) for the SB and the default loose range (44+,A7s+,A9o+,KJs+) for the BB, this is a break even push. So, I don't think it's a clear push.

Switch the stacks between UTG and the BB and the push (using the same discounting and ranges) is now +1.1%

[tigerite]

I still am not convinced about the discounting blinds stuff, so I didn't use it.

[IdiotVig]

[ QUOTE ]
When you discount blinds 50% and use the default average range (66+,ATs+,AJo+) for the SB and the default loose range (44+,A7s+,A9o+,KJs+) for the BB, this is a break even push. So, I don't think it's a clear push.


[/ QUOTE ]

Is discounting 50% a reasonable amount, though, given the stack sizes in play?

Well, if this hand is folded around, next hand the BB will have 1400 and the SB will have 3590. I think this makes it highly likely the BB will be contested next hand.

[tigerite]

You do realise that 50% actually just takes off 50% of the big blind from his stack, and assumes those are the stacks at the end of this hand (if everyone folds to the BB).. and it doesn't do that for EV/no call. That's why I don't overly trust it, I mean the thing about taking off 100 from UTG's stack is alright I suppose, and then assuming we have 7900 chips in play, but it's the EV no call bit that bothers me intently, it assumes he still has 1400.

At least, unless eastbay has since fixed it.

I assumed that discounting for the BB meant that some portion of UTG's stack is removed when figuring post-hand equity.

I was not aware that the discounting only took place for the all-fold result. That would seem to be a flaw.