$22 Stars, 88 UTG, faces river decision

PokerStars Game #3343764690: Tournament #16561357, Hold'em No Limit - Level III (25/50) - 2005/12/15 - 20:02:43 (ET)
Table '16561357 2' Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: rdrmike (730 in chips)
Seat 2: pietro5 (4440 in chips)
Seat 3: DaveAK (3685 in chips)
Seat 4: royal953 (1450 in chips)
Seat 5: rubytine (1800 in chips)
Seat 6: Rugstar (1080 in chips)
Seat 7: Hero (2185 in chips)
Seat 8: clarsonx (1210 in chips)
Seat 9: whatskillz (2925 in chips)
rubytine: posts small blind 25
Rugstar: posts big blind 50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8/images/graemlins/club.gif]
whatskillz said, "ty"
Hero: raises 100 to 150
clarsonx: folds
whatskillz: folds
rdrmike: folds
pietro5: calls 150
DaveAK: folds
royal953: folds
rubytine: calls 125
Rugstar: folds
*** FLOP *** [5/images/graemlins/club.gif 6/images/graemlins/club.gif Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif]
rubytine: checks
Hero: bets 350
pietro5: folds
rubytine: calls 350
*** TURN *** [5/images/graemlins/club.gif 6/images/graemlins/club.gif Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif] [T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif]
rubytine: checks
Hero: checks
*** RIVER *** [5/images/graemlins/club.gif 6/images/graemlins/club.gif Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif] [5/images/graemlins/heart.gif]
rubytine: bets 1300 and is all-in
Hero: ?

The way this hand has been played, this could a queen, a 5, a missed straight draw, a missed flush draw, or complete air. Just dump it, you have enough left to manuver.

The pot is ~1200, w/ his all-in, I'm getting approx. 2 to 1 odds, you just mentioned a missed flush draw, missed straight draw, or air. Does villain have a hand that beats 88, 2/3 of the time?

Yeah, sorry, my answer was pretty incomplete. And looking at it, I didn't realize that you were getting almost 2:1. I'm really a lot more on the fence now. Damn, you're probably right about being good here 2/3rds of the time. Damn. I just...Damn. Really now there are a lot of hands that you beat that do that, which opts for calling. Ugg, I have no idea. Someone help.

[Gamblor]

This is why I hate middle pairs UTG. I'd dump it preflop or limp if the table is giving a lot of action.

Since you're in the hand, you're faced with this tough decision and I call. I'd expect to be shown a whiffed draw 30%, a set 25%, and a Q that is trying to look suspicious 45%.

It is apparent by his call of your bet on the flop that he has a hand...a queen is possible but he may be worried of his kicker. A pocket pair is also a possibility. He probably thinks with your check on the turn that you're weak and that he can push you off the hand on the river. I think you're most likely the best at this point and the pot-odds are pretty enticing...I call here. If you're wrong, you'll know for next time. It's only $22 after all.

I really think 88 is too weak to be raising UTG. I’d do that with 10’s, otherwise I’d just call with 8’s or fold them if the table was loose with lots of pre flop raising. If you are going to raise then make it 200-250 to discourage mediocre over cards calling you.

[ QUOTE ]
If you are going to raise then make it 200-250 to discourage mediocre over cards calling you.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're only going to get called by better hands if you raise to 200-250. 88 is fine to raise UTG, imo. 50*49/2 = 1225 combos. 99+ = total of 36 combos of overpairs. 9 handed table. UTG, 8 people left to act. 88 will be best hand on table... ((1225-36)/1225)^8 ~ 79% of the time. You shouldn't be varying your raises depending on the strength of your hand. You should, however, either vary your raises at random or make all your raises the same. My standard raise is to 150 @ this level. Don't be afraid to play postflop.

[schwza]

i think i would limp there. post-flop i play the same and fold the river.

I apologize for not adding this earlier (I'm lazy & I have finals). I don't know how dramatically this impacts your river decision. I had observed villain. He had slightly overbet the pot on the flop a couple times when he had top pair on the flop. When he had called a raise OOP, he was not afraid to bet right into the pot for 2/3-3/4 pot bet and took down the pot each time (3 or 4 hands). Usually when villain checked, he'd checkcall a flop bet or checkfold, but never made it past the turn in those hands. Lastly, the hand that took place right before the hand in this post....

PokerStars Game #3343754774: Tournament #16561357, Hold'em No Limit - Level III (25/50) - 2005/12/15 - 20:01:47 (ET)
Table '16561357 2' Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: rdrmike (730 in chips)
Seat 2: pietro5 (4440 in chips)
Seat 3: DaveAK (3685 in chips)
Seat 4: royal953 (1475 in chips)
Seat 5: rubytine (3250 in chips)
Seat 6: Rugstar (1080 in chips)
Seat 7: Hero (2185 in chips)
Seat 8: clarsonx (1210 in chips)
Seat 9: whatskillz (1450 in chips)
royal953: posts small blind 25
rubytine: posts big blind 50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [X Y]
Rugstar: folds
Hero: folds
clarsonx: folds
whatskillz: calls 50
rdrmike: folds
pietro5: folds
DaveAK: folds
royal953: folds
rubytine: raises 225 to 275
whatskillz: calls 225
*** FLOP *** [6/images/graemlins/spade.gif 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif Q/images/graemlins/club.gif]
rubytine: bets 2975 and is all-in
whatskillz: calls 1175 and is all-in
*** TURN *** [6/images/graemlins/spade.gif 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif Q/images/graemlins/club.gif] [T/images/graemlins/heart.gif]
*** RIVER *** [6/images/graemlins/spade.gif 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif Q/images/graemlins/club.gif T/images/graemlins/heart.gif] [5/images/graemlins/club.gif]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
rubytine: shows [T/images/graemlins/spade.gif A/images/graemlins/spade.gif] (a pair of Tens)
whatskillz: shows [T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif] (two pair, Tens and Nines)
whatskillz said, "ty"
whatskillz collected 2925 from pot
rubytine said, "nh"
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 2925 | Rake 0


Results in white:

<font color="white"> I called, villain showed... AhJh? Bad call on my part? Either he was calling my flop bet w/ the intention of bluffing me on a later street, or he didn't know what he was doing, in which case, he might've done this same move w/ a Q or 99, that a competent player wouldn't. Thoughts? </font>

[schwza]

this makes me more likely to believe that villain c/r's the flop a-i with a flush draw. i think it's more of a fold on the river.

He went all-in on the river both times. He loks to be on tilt. This hand is read dependant, i wouldn't call a player who does that for the first time, but if he plays like that, it may be a good call. I'm not sure.

The Call of 350 on the flop should mean a Q or a set, you don't call a pot size bet if you are chasing (shouldn't). However, a check-call looks like a draw (should reraise) unless he has QJ or Q10 and doesn't like his kicker.

I would fold, I think, but it would be a good spot to win some money.

About the Pre-flop raise. This is a spot were you can limp and go for a set (I would call a raise if I had the implied odds) or raise and try to take it down on the flop (you will likely be first to act so it will be hard to play but UTG you show strengh by raising and betting so you will only be called by good hands.

Do you raise AJs UTG? Same thinking... Also, There's more than 36 combos a head of you. I consider AK a better hand and AQs also.

[schwza]

villain pushed the flop last hand.

These days, if the blinds are big enough to be worth stealing, I rarely limp. I usually start stealing @ the 25/50 level. If it's good enough to play, it's good enough to raise. Meaning, if it's 10/20 level (blinds aren't worth stealing), I'll probably limp UTG w/ 88 or AJ type hand (although I'm more inclined to just fold AJ/KQ early in tourneys in EP). Plus, I usualy won't get stacked when I have 88 and I like to give myself as many opportunities to get "lucky" as I can get. If it's a marginal decision between folding and raising preflop, I'll probably choose to raise.