What's he got

[Louie Landale]

I was relatively new to holdem when it came to California and was playing a little over my head in the 10/20 against a few "Vegas Pros". I figured to make money from the few locals that had no clue about holdem. I was inexperienced, knew it, and knew that I looked it.

The button was one such "pro", reasonably selective and assertive. I had the BB with 64, 2 players called, button called, SB folded, 4 of us took the flop.

Flop was QT6o. Everybody checked.

Turn was QT6-3 making a 2 flush. I bet, the limpers folded, but now the button raised.

What to do?

- Louie

[Joe Tall]

He turned a set of 3s is my guess. Or slow played a set of 6s.

As for what to do? Call then check/call, not sure but I assume you saw a showdown...

[lil']

How do you remember these hands from days gone by so clearly? If I don't have a hand history I forget it as soon as the cards are dealt for the next hand.

I put him on a flush draw or a slowplayed something. Most players I go up against aren't tricky enough to raise a flush draw here (so often I fold, easy come easy go), but from your desription it sounds like this guy might be able to make that play.

[JoeU]

As Larry Joe did, I would put him on a set or something decent as well. Maybe QTs. Your bet on the turn is just taking a shot at scooping the pot. Once you are raised, you have to realize that you have 3rd pair and any card higher than a 4 on the river puts your kicker in the garbage. I would muck to the raise, as any Q, T, or pocket pair 6 or higher beats you. These are all possibilities since he was on the button and could easily limp with a marginal hand.

Joe

[Clarkmeister]

"any Q, T, or pocket pair 6 or higher beats you"

Wouldn't a "reasonably assertive" button be betting these holdings when checked to on the flop?

[Bob T.]

What to do?


This is tough, you have to strongly suspect that he is on a flush draw, but it is also likely that he is drawing live to a pair on the river. If he has a flush draw, he won't fold to a three bet, and even with the extra outs, you would still be getting positive EV if you three bet, but the question then is how to play the river.

I think that it will be unlikely that a player like you describe will call with a worse hand, if you three bet the turn, and bet the river, but at the same time, he probably would be putting you on a better hand than you have, so he would likely fold many better hands than you have to that sequence, especially, if he made a pair of 9s or something like that on the river. So, I think that if a nonflush card less than tens comes on the river, you should go ahead and bet the river.

If a broadway card comes, or a flush card appears, I think that you should probably check, and make a crying call, if your opponent bets, and hope that he missed whatever draw he was on.

Can't wait to see the results, and see how far out in left field I was.

[Joe Tall]

Joe,

I agree with Clarkmeister here, any Q or QT would have bet out on the flop. I feel a set on this hand, it will be interesting to see how it turned out.

You a poppa yet Joe? Are we wating for little Joe or JTGrita, or are you going 'old-school' wating for a surprise?

-Joe

[JoeU]

True Clarkmeister, they would bet these when checked to on the flop. I was merely making a point that there were too many hands out there that beat you. Any of those hands win this pot. It is true that on the button, I would bet out with a Q or a T, but what hand would you play from the button with a 6 in it? A6s and 66 are the only two I can quickly think of. My point is that you are dead to lots of hands; and this decision wouldn't be so tough if he had mucked from the beginning.

Joe

[JoeU]

Joe,

On a rainbowed board, I might be inclined to slowplay top two from time to time, but the single Q or T definitely gets bet here by me. /forums/images/icons/grin.gif

As for the other question, Samantha Marie was born on July 15th at 7:54am. She was 5lbs 14oz and 17 1/2" long. Mom is home resting, but "little Sammy" had to have some surgery. She'll be home either Tuesday or Wednesday. I think I'll put a birth announcement in the news/views section. I'll have her ready for the home game as soon as she can hold the cards /forums/images/icons/grin.gif .

Joe

[onegymrat]

Ace high four flush. Raised for a free showdown. Perhaps he even limped in on the button with A-10 suited and has a middle pair also. You would be pretty much drawing dead to a flush. I would fold. How far off am I?

[rigoletto]

3-bet! He either has a monster (66, 33) or picked up a draw (flush, 45) or the 3 helped him (A3s) and he thinks you're stealing. If he calls bet the river unless A, K or the straight or flush gets there. If he 4-bets you have an easy fold.

[Joe Tall]

Samantha Marie was born on July 15th at 7:54am.

Congratulations, papa Joe! I hope all is well with Mother and newborn, Sammy. May she crunch odds like Sklansky, have the clairvoyance of Unger and the likeness of Anna Kournikova...and if she does, may she never meet a character like me! /forums/images/icons/grin.gif (you'd punch him in the mouth the first time she brought him home for sure /forums/images/icons/wink.gif )

Again, Congrats!
-Joe

[Kevin J]

I'd fold in a heartbeat. And anyone who thinks that's weak, I wouldn't want playing with my money. The bet was questionable in the first place. People who compound things by getting overly involved with 3rd pair/no kicker are the ones who can look like geniuses for while. But they're also the ones who dissappear from poker for months at a time.

If you're getting semi-bluffed by a flush or str8 draw, so be it. Let him win and move on to the next hand. IMO-

[Kevin J]

While I can see that the point of this post might be, "From a hand reading standpoint this raise might not make sense", I really gotta agree with Joe.

For one thing, this pot isn't big enough to worry about being bluffed. Another thing is that depending on how good/tricky the button is, hands like a flopped (or turned) set, QT, or even something like AQ or KQ, might be very reasonable hands for him. He might also have a middling pocket pair that he now suspects might be good if Louie is the one semi-bluffing . And even if he's raising on just a 6, that means Louie's six is just about hopeless.

Yeah, maybe the button's semi-bluffing, but who cares? It might bruise your ego to learn that you've been bluffed here, but it certainly wouldn't put much of a dent in your long term profits. However, always looking a guy up in this spot, might. IMO-