AK in big 3-handed pot, turn decision

A little afraid of MP2 raising behind me on the turn, is it a super-easy fold because of that?

UTG+1 is 49/5/0.81 after 70 hands, and MP2 is 26/18/2.13 after 100 hands.

<font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, MP2 calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (13.50 SB) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, Hero calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (8.25 BB) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, Hero?

Are you sure that MP2 will raise? If you are 100% sure, then yes, you should fold.

But you are getting about 6-7 outs here. (I may count it as 6 with 2-3 for overcards, 3 for the clean gutshot, and .5-1 for the 10d. Assuming 6 outs, you are getting 6.7 to 1 in pot odds. The pot is currently laying you 9.25 to 1 and possibly 10.25 to 1 if MP2 calls.

If MP2 raises, you are putting in 2 BB for a pot of 12.25 BB and getting 6 to 1, which is still close to the odds you need to call. Unless I did my math wrong, I think unless you're 90+% sure (I know it's hard to put a number on it) that MP2 will raise, you call this.

yeah, I say call here. if he doesn't raise, you end up getting 10:1, if he does raise, you're getting 6:1. I think I make the call here.

[silkyslim]

you might be able to mix this up with a semi-bluff raise on the turn. Dont do this all the time but if you think MP2 can fold to 2BB's this is a good way to clean up outs in a big pot and there is a possibility that UTG has something like KTs because he is a donk and you can take a free showdown UI. of course the downside to this is that you get 3 bet and have to call.

[paperboyNC]

What suits are your AK? Call the turn, fold the river UI

[W. Deranged]

How likely do you think you are to get raised here?

If you get raised, you will paying paying 2 bets into a pot that's probably going to be 12 BB or so. If you don't, you're paying 1 bet into a pot that's going to be about 10 bets.

So the equity we need here is strictly more than 10% and no more than about 14-15%.

So we need at least 5 outs in general but on average probably don't need more than about 7 or so.

We have 4 outs that are basically completely clean, unless we're chopping with another AK. I don't think they need to be discounted any further than .5 and out or so. So let's say 3.5. I think we can count something like 2-3 overcard outs.

So on average I think we have 6 outs about. And we need somewhere in the neighborhood of 5-7. Okay.

Here's the thing. The demand for 7 outs is if we're 100% sure we'll get raised. If we're 50% sure, we only need 6 (roughly speaking). If we don't think we're getting raised a majority of the time, we probably have a clear call.

So I call. Call one bet back to you. I think we can easily fold to two back to us.

River a T.

The guy was actually quite aggressive, and had made quite a few moves earlier. After my time with him, his preflop aggression and his unusual flop call, my intuition told me that he was raising behind me. The thing that also went through my head was that there was a possibility of him having AK too.

But now when I think about it, of course it's not at all obvious that he'll raise, and after reading your responses I'm now convinced that a call is correct, it was just me being weak, folding.

[silkyslim]

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you might be able to mix this up with a semi-bluff raise on the turn. Dont do this all the time but if you think MP2 can fold to 2BB's this is a good way to clean up outs in a big pot and there is a possibility that UTG has something like KTs because he is a donk and you can take a free showdown UI. of course the downside to this is that you get 3 bet and have to call.

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bump

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you might be able to mix this up with a semi-bluff raise on the turn. Dont do this all the time but if you think MP2 can fold to 2BB's this is a good way to clean up outs in a big pot and there is a possibility that UTG has something like KTs because he is a donk and you can take a free showdown UI. of course the downside to this is that you get 3 bet and have to call.

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bump

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Probably I'm not good enough to make a play like that /images/graemlins/smile.gif The problem though is that KTs is the only donk hand UTG can have that we beat, so he either has that or a pair; I don't see him betting into both of us with anything else. MP2 won't fold a high pair or AK for two bets, but perhaps he would fold 88-TT. Or, if he or UTG have a strong hand we'll get 3-bet.

Well, perhaps a raise is an option mixing it up sometimes, but it still feels too fancy for me /images/graemlins/smile.gif Next time, I will just call.

[silkyslim]

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you might be able to mix this up with a semi-bluff raise on the turn. Dont do this all the time but if you think MP2 can fold to 2BB's this is a good way to clean up outs in a big pot and there is a possibility that UTG has something like KTs because he is a donk and you can take a free showdown UI. of course the downside to this is that you get 3 bet and have to call.

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bump

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Probably I'm not good enough to make a play like that /images/graemlins/smile.gif The problem though is that KTs is the only donk hand UTG can have that we beat, so he either has that or a pair; I don't see him betting into both of us with anything else. MP2 won't fold a high pair or AK for two bets, but perhaps he would fold 88-TT. Or, if he or UTG have a strong hand we'll get 3-bet.

Well, perhaps a raise is an option mixing it up sometimes, but it still feels too fancy for me /images/graemlins/smile.gif Next time, I will just call.

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ya this might not be the best time to pull my move, as UTG is not that crazy and likely has us drawing on the turn. I would just call.