AK UTG Late Stage of Tourney

$30 MTT on Pokerroom last night. ~700 entries, down to about 35, ITM but nothing meaningful until FT. I have T80k which is ~12th in chips w/ avg ~40k and leaders are 150k+. Villian has ~90k. Table action has been raise/fold for a while w/ some shorts pushing the action on occasion and some key clashes of premium hands. Both villian and I are likely perceived as TAG - I've been raising just enough to maintain my position and only hands I showed down have been premium. Likewise for the villian.

Blinds 3k/6k I'm UTG w/ AKo and raise to 15k (standard for me), folds to villian in SB who completes, BB folds.

Flop AJJ rb. Villian checks, I continue for 15k. Villian raises to 30k.

What range do you put villian on and what do you do?

you have 80k, 15k in preflop, 15k value bet postflop, now your down to 50k and if you call down to 35k. This is definitely either a push or fold. I would push. Range of villain could literally be any pocket pair, (but since you labeled him TAG and he called 12k preflop I'd say minimum 77 or even minimum 99), AK or AQ (AJ possible but not as likely for TAG) and possibly a broadway suited connector like KQs or QJs (QJ probably not as likely for TAG).

The hands with J in it I can not see TAG playing, especially against another TAG. The more likely of these holdings is AK, AQ, KK, QQ or JJ (JJ would play slower than this, most likely). The question is based on this do you push or fold. I probably push and get busted out.

Villain's range is AQ/AJ/A10 33-JJ. I call and hope to check/call it down.
I don't think I'd bet the flop though. I'd CR. If he puts me all in I fold. Otherwise, check/call it down.

Reg -

He's first to act - no opportunity for me to CR here (I don't think anyway). I bet the flop after he checked to me.

HC

Really sorry for not paying attention. I'd make your play and I have no idea what to suggest when the CR comes in. I'd probably give it the whole time bank and then call, fold any bet on the turn and post the hand!

LOL - I'll post what I did when/if I get some more feedback. Thanks for the reply.

I've given this some more thought...his read must be, if you've got a J, or two of them, you're unlikley to bet until the turn so he must put you on the ace. Now as far I see it, a push on your part is only going to push him off an ace (he might still call but you've got to be ahead in that case) so I think the play here is another reraise. This leaves you with 20k, which while not great is not the end of the world. If he then puts you all in you've got to give him credit for the J and he may well just put you in anyway whatever his holding but I think he could also fold here.

I'm getting a lot of flack on this site (probably rightly) for wanting to avoid unecessary pushes but again I can't see the value of a push in at this stage of the tournie. With the buy in and his chip stack, I would give him credit for being a good player who would:

1. Put you on an ace.
2. Re-raise.
3. Possibly fold a hand if he knew he couldn't catch up.

[eleventy]

How is just calling if you are staying in to the end. Why go all in and let him fold his worse A or his bluff? He is going to call only if he has the J. Call and let him bluff more chips to you.

[Rex Ruthless]

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How is just calling if you are staying in to the end. Why go all in and let him fold his worse A or his bluff? He is going to call only if he has the J. Call and let him bluff more chips to you.

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ditto . . . from another St. Louisan - Go Cards!

[Art Vandelay]

[ QUOTE ]
How is just calling if you are staying in to the end. Why go all in and let him fold his worse A or his bluff? He is going to call only if he has the J. Call and let him bluff more chips to you.

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What he said.

Given his checkraise

Villain's range: 77-TT, QQ, AK-AQ, air

You're ahead very, very often here. I just call w/ the intention of calling any bet by villain on the turn. I probably check turn if villain checks (I don't want to scare out smaller Aces, and I want to give villain another chance to bluff if he has air). Call any river bet by villain, bet if villain checks river.

[Roman]

Nothing you could do except call down, hope u won.

A reraise has no purpose, and the way you played it, it would be impossible to fold AK here.

i disagree slightly that a re-raise has no purpose. Let's suppose villain has AJ or JJ for the boat. We obviously don't know that and villain is definitely going to bet every street, whereby we end up putting all of our chips in anyway. so in the case where we are WB and opponent has boat, we are allin by the hands conclusion anyway (according to your calling down line). Now in the case we are WA, the push makes the villain have to call 35k into a pot that is 90k. He'll be getting the proper odds to call with almost anything and you will be getting all the money in while you are ahead (very slim, say 10% possibility he'll fold). This is why i say it is a push or fold to the reraise on the flop. I don't really think there is any other choice IMO.

Thanks for all the feedback.

Where i ended up was as follows: I interptreted his call on the flop as mid/low pair, AK/AQ, maybe AJs, maybe cute big pair, maybe frisky suited connector. When he checked the flop I figured I was good, bet and expected a fold - so the min check raise surprised me and didn't know what to put him on as there were no hands that I'd have played that way. I decided he didn't have a J as the only J hand I had preflop was AJs but there's only one of those left (my A matched the board so 3 suits were covered) and I wouldn't have raised w/ it there. Given that I thought the best line was to call w/ the intent of calling any turn bet, checking behind if he did on the turn and value betting on the river if he checked again - I figured this gave me my best value if I was ahead. Implication of course was that I was committing my stack (unless a Q came on the turn which would cause me to regroup). Sounds like most of you guys were on a similar page.

The turn bricked, he pushed, I called and he turned over JTo - no miracle on the river. I either misread him or he picked a great time to loosen up ;-)

Would you guys have played his hand that way on the flop? I think I would have just smooth called and hope that I'd let my opponent hang himself on the turn and not run the risk that I scare off AQ, KK, or QQ (which were certainly in my range)

Thanks again.

HC

[eleventy]

I wouldn't play it this way. But it might be a good play against good thinking opponents. Min-raises usually mean monsters and it might be a good cheap way to bluff.

[mindyoureyes]

he was getting 2-1 pot odds to call your preflop raise so maybe calling with J10o is not such a loose call.

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he was getting 2-1 pot odds to call your preflop raise so maybe calling with J10o is not such a loose call.

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This is a terrible terrible preflop call. Pot odds are only part of the story.

It was his standard raise, and he was playing tight so he shoulda known he was up against a legit hand. Playing JTo out of position against an UTG raise is awful. Too bad you didn't have AA there hockey

[mindyoureyes]

Any statistics to back up why this is an awful play? I'm just learning my poker statistics but if I'm using poker stove correctly here's what I get:
AA thru 99 plus AKs, AKo, AQs, AQo this whole group of likely UTG holdings in their naturally ocuring distribution versus JTo has an equity of 69.9% and 30.1 for JTo. So 29% is 2.3 to 1 odds against JTo. He was getting 2 to 1 on his call so I'm not sure if I would characterize his call as "awfull". It was just a little loose. If I'm wrong on the statistics please correct me.
Thanks

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Any statistics to back up why this is an awful play? I'm just learning my poker statistics but if I'm using poker stove correctly here's what I get:
AA thru 99 plus AKs, AKo, AQs, AQo this whole group of likely UTG holdings in their naturally ocuring distribution versus JTo has an equity of 69.9% and 30.1 for JTo. So 29% is 2.3 to 1 odds against JTo. He was getting 2 to 1 on his call so I'm not sure if I would characterize his call as "awfull". It was just a little loose. If I'm wrong on the statistics please correct me.
Thanks

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Your stats are correct but the point is that we have to play after the flop. If you call with J10o here, you're out of position with a hand that could easily be dominated. What do you do if a jack or a ten flops? You're usually going to lose a lot of chips to a big pair or not win much if raiser has AK or AQ.