Hand...

[krishanleong]

Party Poker 30/60 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (6 SB) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, BB folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero folds.

I was going to raise the turn. Villian is 34/19. Like it?

Krishan

[Spicymoose]

Isn't SB agro enough to be pulling a semi-bluf?

[Danenania]

His line looks fishy. What Kx hand is he cold calling with PF then check/3-betting flop? Even 55 would normally 3-bet pf I'd think. That leaves 44, Kxc, and perhaps KJo though it's questionable that he'd call KJo pf instead of 3-betting and equally questionable that he'd check/3-bet flop with it. Besides those there are flush draws. I count 13 different unpaired flush draw combos he could very conceivably hold: A8-A6, A3-A2, QJ-Q9, JT-J9, T9-T8, 98.

So on the turn if my earlier assumptions are right then you're just about even money, even without discounting KJo at all. Even if you add in 55 and KT and take out a couple of the flush draw combos you're still getting odds to call down. So I think folding is a pretty bad mistake. You could consider raising/folding to 3-bet but only if he won't bluff missed draws on river, and most opponents will. You can also fold to a river club.

Use a new converter. /images/graemlins/smile.gif
It's not a 6 max game, and the number of players on the flop and turn is wrong.

I don't like the fold. I call down here getting over 4:1 effective pot odds on my turn and river calls. Are you probably beat? Yes. Is there at least a 20% chance he has clubs (especially 76c, 87c), 54s, a pocket pair, or just went nuts? Yes.

Edit: You only need about a 15% chance of being good on the turn because 4% of the time you spike an ace on the river and punish him. This makes it even more of a call.

[Wynton]

[ QUOTE ]
Isn't SB agro enough to be pulling a semi-bluf?

[/ QUOTE ]

Tston did it in this hand (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&amp;Number=4199382&amp;an=0&amp;page=0#Post 4199382)

I know, not the same thing.

[Spicymoose]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Isn't SB agro enough to be pulling a semi-bluf?

[/ QUOTE ]

Tston did it in this hand (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&amp;Number=4199382&amp;an=0&amp;page=0#Post 4199382)

I know, not the same thing.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's funny. In my original post I said something along the lines of "TStone did it in his recent thread, and a lot of 2+2 seemed to agree with it." Then i realized that there were a few differences, so I deleted that part. I still think they are somewhat similar though.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
Isn't SB agro enough to be pulling a semi-bluf?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well he definitely will semi-bluff some flush draws. But if you read the hand, I don't think this is a particularly favorable spot to try and push a preflop raiser out.

Krishan

[Spicymoose]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Isn't SB agro enough to be pulling a semi-bluf?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well he definitely will semi-bluff some flush draws. But if you read the hand, I don't think this is a particularly favorable spot to try and push a preflop raiser out.

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

Perhaps he thinks that the PRF is autoraising with a lot of unpaired hands here. He could be trying to push out the flop bettor. He also simply might not be thinking all that much. I think there are too many possibilities to be folding this flop. All you said was "Villian is 34/19", you didn't say whether he was slightly loose preflop, yet solid postflop, so in my experience, he could be quite a bit overLAGGY. If he is a known solid player, despite his slight looseness preflop, I think this becomes much closer.

[Victor]

dude you got aces. /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[danzasmack]

I think the flop call needs some discussion. How often do you not cap here?

When I get c/r'd like the SB did here I almost always cap for information. That play has been a flush/straight draw just as often as it has been a set and I'm much more comfortable making this fold if i cap the flop.

That being said, I may be biased because I have seen the turn card - but I'm 99% sure i cap the flop here.

[spydog]

I don't think it really matters much if you call down or fold. Unlike Dane, I think he cool-calls a lot of Kings from the SB when you raise from MP. If your raise came from the Button than I would expect more 3-betting from good Kings.

My only concern is that a theme in your recent posts has been to avoid paying off with good 2nd best hands. If true, then it might start creeping into spots like this where calling down is probably a good idea in higher limit, aggressive games.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]

When I get c/r'd like the SB did here I almost always cap for information. That play has been a flush/straight draw just as often as it has been a set and I'm much more comfortable making this fold if i cap the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you know that the king is going to pair on the turn in advance I might agree.

Krishan

[Spicymoose]

[ QUOTE ]
That being said, I may be biased because I have seen the turn card - but I'm 99% sure i cap the flop here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like waiting to the turn to raise (almost any card, obviously the king is an exception). We punish him on the more expensive street with our pretty strong hand. Furthermore, you said that you cap because you can fold later. I think it would really suck if you capped the flop, the flush came, and he semi-bluff check-raised us with his Kx with the flush draw. Granted, it doesn't happen too much, but this is an agro opponent, and if it happens with any frequency, we are giving up a pretty decent pot.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think it really matters much if you call down or fold. Unlike Dane, I think he cool-calls a lot of Kings from the SB when you raise from MP. If your raise came from the Button than I would expect more 3-betting from good Kings.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. I think he can have KT, KJ, KQ (discounted 50%). I don't see a huge number of coldcalling hands that contain the flush draw. I also don't think everyone is going to play a flush draw for a 3-bet in this spot. I mean the board is king high, I raised preflop. It's not unlikely that I have a pair of Kings which most people just are not going to let go of. I think a lot of players (me included) will play a flush draw passively here on the flop. Keep the 3rd player in for equity and go nuts if you hit.

[ QUOTE ]

My only concern is that a theme in your recent posts has been to avoid paying off with good 2nd best hands. If true, then it might start creeping into spots like this where calling down is probably a good idea in higher limit, aggressive games.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a theme of my posts because I think it's what holds solid 10/20 players from being successful at higher limits. And I think many players don't even realize they are doing it. They just say, call down he'll have a flush draw here often enough.

Now in this particular hand I still am not sure what the correct thing to do is. But there is a lot of information on the table to consider and I think the right move will come out.

Krishan

[Spicymoose]

Alright, I guess it is time to come up with a real analysis. I think he could hold A6-AJ, Q9-QJ, J8-JT, T8-T9, 98, 87, 76. That is 16 combos, but I will discount a bit because sometimes he reraises with some of these hands, and sometimes he folds. I will call it 12 combos. He could also sometimes have a pair preflop. I will say 66-99, which is 24 combos, but I will discount to 20. Then there are 6 combos of 44 or 55, which I will discount to 5. Finally there are the kings, which could be K9-KTs, KJ, KQ. There are 20 combos total, but I will discount to 16.

So preflop:
12 combos of flush draws
20 combos of PPs
5 combos of sets
16 combos of Ks

If there is a 16% chance that he is check/3-betting with his flush draw, and 10% chance that he is check/3-betting with his PP, there are 2 combos of PPs, and 2 combos of flush draws.

If there is a 100% chance he will c/3-bet with his Ks or set, then there are 21 combos of hands that beat us.

Out of the 2 times he has PPs, we will win 8.5 BB 95% of the time, and lose 2 BB 5% of the time. That is a net result of winning 8 BB.
Out of the 2 times he has a flush draw, we will win 8.5 BB 80% of the time, and lose 2 BB 20% of the time. That is a net result of winning 6.5 BB
Out of the 5 times he has a set, we will lose 2 BB
Out of the 21times he has Ks or a set, we will lose 2 BB 95% of the time, and win 9.5 5% of the time, for a net result of losing 1.4 BB (note our 2 outs are extremely valueble).

Final results? (2*8+2*6.5-21*1.4)/25= -.015 BB

I hope I didn't screw up anywhere. I have edited my assumptions a few times so far. I started out forgetting he could have 44, 55, and assumed he check/3-bet his Ks 75% of the time; net result was +.75 BB. Then I changed my assumptions and said he might have kings 88% of the time; net result was +.5 BB. Then I said kings 100% of the time; net result was +.33 BB. Finally, when I put in 44 and 55 at 100% I get an almost break even result. What this means is that your assumptions change the EV of this drastically.

I think that my assumptions have been way too generous to the hands that beat us, and that in reality, this is a call down.

[Danenania]

[ QUOTE ]
It's a theme of my posts because I think it's what holds solid 10/20 players from being successful at higher limits. And I think many players don't even realize they are doing it. They just say, call down he'll have a flush draw here often enough.


[/ QUOTE ]

I haven't found this to be true at all. If anything I had to learn to call down in some extra spots when playing above 10/20. Imo, the main thing that holds said players back are leaks in HU play (usually folding too often, not calling too often).

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see a huge number of coldcalling hands that contain the flush draw. I also don't think everyone is going to play a flush draw for a 3-bet in this spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Once again, the question is not whether you are an underdog; it's whether you are a 6:1 underdog. So you don't need villain to behave eccentrically very often to make calling correct. I think a far greater mistake to make at the higher limits is exactly this one: do not ignore the size of the pot when making a decision.

Another thing: villain was not test after the second king fell. His turn bet may just be a continuation of his flop agression. If you had him on a range of hands on the flop, some of which included a king and some of which didn't, then the effect of the second king is to reduce the chances of the hands in his range containing a king and increase the chances of the hands not containing a king. You had to have had him pretty much deadlocked on a king (or kings up or a set) on the flop for folding to be correct here. I DO think this is possible, but much more so in live play and when you really know an opponent.

[Poldi]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It's a theme of my posts because I think it's what holds solid 10/20 players from being successful at higher limits. And I think many players don't even realize they are doing it. They just say, call down he'll have a flush draw here often enough.


[/ QUOTE ]

I haven't found this to be true at all. If anything I had to learn to call down in some extra spots when playing above 10/20. Imo, the main thing that holds said players back are leaks in HU play (usually folding too often, not calling too often).

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont agree with this statement too. After moving up I have to call down a lot more because of semibluffs and more overall aggressive play. Usually I overadjust a bit and then have to fold in some spots again but at first I need to learn how to call more.

Since we don't have any information on villain I guess this is just a "default" play. Obviously, you're calling down against some guys. As a default however, I don't think that 4:1's good enough either.

[Spicymoose]

[ QUOTE ]
Since we don't have any information on villain I guess this is just a "default" play. Obviously, you're calling down against some guys. As a default however, I don't think that 4:1's good enough either.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why not? What is wrong with my analysis?

[DeathDonkey]

I think this is an excellent fold. One that is hard to make but everytime I call it down they have exactly what you thought anyway and you were totally dead to two outs. Just making this fold should be like negative tilt inducing for yourself.

-DeathDonkey

I actually didn't read your analysis the first time through (good work, btw, it shows that it's close). A couple things:

You did forget 45s (which we passed). I think you gave way too much weight to the FD 3 betting. I think you were way too conservative with the number of K combos. The weight for 3 betting with a K should be close to 100%. And this final thing, which I'm not sure about, but I think you're actually calculating the K combos wrong. Since the turn bet doesn't give us any information we should be going by how likely he was to hold a hand on the flop.

[Spicymoose]

[ QUOTE ]
You did forget 45s (which we passed).

[/ QUOTE ]
This will lead us closer to a call down.

[ QUOTE ]
I think you gave way too much weight to the FD 3 betting.

[/ QUOTE ]
Less then 1 in 5 times with his flush draw is way too much credit?

[ QUOTE ]
I think you were way too conservative with the number of K combos.

[/ QUOTE ]
Considering K9 and KT may not even call, I think my estimate is pretty close to the truth.

[ QUOTE ]
And this final thing, which I'm not sure about, but I think you're actually calculating the K combos wrong. Since the turn bet doesn't give us any information we should be going by how likely he was to hold a hand on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]
I am pretty sure I am counting the combos right. There are only 2 possible kings he can hold, so you have to start from there in your counting. I am trying to figure out what we should do at the turn, so we can use any information up until our move.

Well, we can agree to disagree on some of that stuff, then, though now you know why I'd disagree. I'd be pretty adament about the FD not 3 betting anywhere near 16% of the time and that he can hold way more kings (he is a 34% VPIP). Thinking about it now, though, you're right about the calculation part. I muddle my math sometimes.

[Spicymoose]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, we can agree to disagree on some of that stuff, then, though now you know why I'd disagree. I'd be pretty adament about the FD not 3 betting anywhere near 16% of the time and that he can hold way more kings (he is a 34% VPIP).

[/ QUOTE ]

This is basically what the debate should focus on. I like doing these types of math analysis, because instead of debating over a general question, we can now ask ourselves how often he is check raising the flush draw, or semi-cold calling with his kings. If we could come to a general consensus (or at least range of possibilities), then we would know whether we should call down or not.

You don't happen to have an excel sheet set up for this sort of thing, do you? I've been meaning to steal one of those and figure the program out for myself.

[Grisgra]

[ QUOTE ]

It's a theme of my posts because I think it's what holds solid 10/20 players from being successful at higher limits. And I think many players don't even realize they are doing it. They just say, call down he'll have a flush draw here often enough.

[/ QUOTE ]

As a struggling 20/40'er -- 30/60'er I think you're right. I made a big step up in my 5/10 game when I was able to fold top pair on the turn, or on the river after calling one bet to see if I improved/counterfeited the raiser.

Obviously, that is a move that is much more difficult to make in a highly aggressive game where you often have much better reason to believe that your opponent might be bluffing, and I *do* think that there's so much confusion about that that it holds people back. Like you, I'm not sure what the right action is in this hand, but the fact is that I'm very close to thinking it's a fold . . . but when I'm at the tables, in the heat of play, I rarely have the presence of mind to make that decision. Because unlike the 5/10 game, my default is automatically to think they're full of crap. Or, at least, I Have Odds to call down to find out.

But here? King on the board, 3-betting-checkraising the preflop raiser? I don't think this is one of those obvious bluffin' places.

Then again, after reading ALL1N's latest post, I may never fold postflop again . . .

[Spicymoose]

[ QUOTE ]
You don't happen to have an excel sheet set up for this sort of thing, do you? I've been meaning to steal one of those and figure the program out for myself.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nope, but I really want to write a program that lets you put in % for different hand ranges, and give parameters of how villain will act given certain cards. It would then calculate your exact EV given the assumptions. I don't think it would be too hard to make, but I havn't written a program in quite some time, so it probably wont get done any time soon.

Doing it by hand isn't all that hard once you get used to it.