Estimating opponent call ranges

I've just started $33s (hey Scuba) now that I got my BR up to 100 buyins. One thing I noticed right away is that my bubble play isn't nearly as good as I thought it was.

So I'm loading up my hands in SNGPT and realizing that a lot of the hands I'm having trouble with will swing depending on what the opponents call range is. Trouble is, I don't really know. Seems like the presets as eastbay generated them are generally tighter than what I've been experiencing, but I haven't played enough to be sure.

Can anybody out there (*cough* Raptor *cough*) help me figure out how to estimate my opponents call range? Is it just a matter of waiting and seeing what his poorest calling hand is? If you have no read, what do you assume? Is your assumption different between $33s and $22s?

Thanks!
Baz

Yes I would like to know too how players like raptor estimate calling ranges when they're 8+ tabling.

If you're playing a few tables you can get a read on how loose/tight a player is in the early levels, and perhaps if he adjusts to the higher blinds, etc. But if you're playing many tables you can't pay attention to every single player. How do you guess calling ranges, which calling ranges do you use?

I changed my SNG PT call ranges recently btw. Tight is now '88+,ATs+,AJo+', average is '66+,A6s+,A9o+,KQs', loose is '44+,A2s+,A5o+,KTs+,KJo+', maniac is '22+,A2+,K2s+,K6+,Q7s+,Q9+,J9s+,T9s'. But I just entered these one time, without thinking too much about them. I have no idea if they make sense...

Something I wonder about is which pairs each type of player calls with. For example, if you call only with the unpaired hands ATs+ and AJo+ , which pairs go along with that range? 88+? TT+? (I don't mean in theory, I mean in reality /images/graemlins/smile.gif)

Anyone? I can't believe that my question is so stupid as to not warrant any answers at all. Or, is this something that everybody wrestles with and doesn't want to let on?

[tewall]

What assumptions do you use for the $22's?

Yes, that's my question.

[tewall]

Sorry, I thought you had an idea for $22's, but were asking for $33's.

[tewall]

Out of curiousity, do you find you're pushing too much, or not enough?

I've paid some experienced 2+2ers to review my hand histories, out of a very limited set (4 or 5 complete SnGs) the comments I got were "perfect HU" and "too aggressive on bubble".

My winning distribution over 450 $22s is:
1st: 14.5%
2nd: 11.5%
3rd: 9.9%
4th: 12.6%

Over my first 100 SnGs at the $33s netted:
1st: 13.0%
2nd: 7.0%
3rd: 5.0%
4th: 12.0%

I think this is kinda meaningless as it's over only 100sngs, and I luckboxed many times in a row for a lot of the 1st places.

Sometimes I feel like I'm not pushing on the bubble enough (don't want to risk it all on T7o when AA might be my next hand... bad, I know), other times I'm going nuts with 92o. I guess my pushing or not is based more on how often others are calling, or if the big stack is to my left, etc. I'm "feeling" my way around, and I guess my results so far aren't terrible; but as I'm focusing on this specific part of my game, I'm finding it impossible to really pin down where my mistakes are. I simply don't know what assumptions to use when reviewing my bubble/ITM play.

Thanks for taking the time to respond, Tewall.
Baz

[tigerite]

What's not meaningless is that in that 2nd set, you only have 25% ITM. That's way too low. Even 37% to last 4 is really too low. Something is not right there.

When you find the magic formula, please let us all know.

I don't mean to be a prick. You can use available tools to determine theoretically correct pushing and calling ranges given stack sizes, blinds, payout structure, etc. But, only experience is going to tell you how real players deviate from the correct ranges. And, as I am discovering (much to my dismay), it's not nearly good enough to generalize for a buy-in level -- you really need to watch and see how individual players are playing. It would be a whole lot easier if the generalizations were enough.

[ QUOTE ]
What's not meaningless is that in that 2nd set, you only have 25% ITM. That's way too low. Even 37% to last 4 is really too low. Something is not right there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, having a lot of troubles trying to break into the $33s. -ROI right now in a big way. Seems like more people are willing to bet aggressively with air, which is probably costing me some pots that I'm not defending strongly enough. Seems like Ax is more favored as well.

I've worked my BR up from $200 to $3300, and my ROI at the $22s is over 20% over 1000+ SNGs, so I'm committed to ratching it up to the $33s. While I am losing more than my share of coinflips, I think I"m also leaking money trying to adjust to the aggression. I've had to dip back down to the $22s to get my BR back up over the $3k mark a couple times, hopefully I'll push through this.

[ QUOTE ]
When you find the magic formula, please let us all know.

I don't mean to be a prick. You can use available tools to determine theoretically correct pushing and calling ranges given stack sizes, blinds, payout structure, etc. But, only experience is going to tell you how real players deviate from the correct ranges. And, as I am discovering (much to my dismay), it's not nearly good enough to generalize for a buy-in level -- you really need to watch and see how individual players are playing. It would be a whole lot easier if the generalizations were enough.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks zabt. You didn't come across as a prick at all... in fact I think you gave me the answer. I thought there was something I wasn't getting, that is obvious to all the other 2+2ers. Looks like it's just a matter of getting experience, paying attention, and developing a "feel" for what their call ranges are. I'll just keep reviewing hand histories and adjusting my assumptions here and there and hope my play improves accordingly.

It's really hard to estimate an entire range for a player based on a couple showdowns, but I guess that's really the best anyone can do. Thanks for the reply.

[tigerite]

Baz, I would seriously post some hands if I were you, your ITM stats seem reminiscent of my own when I started the $109s and I was getting too fancy, playing too many hands early and being too aggressive. When I toned that down = much better results and going way further into the tournaments (mostly, I still do have a few 9ths but that's to be expected). Obviously my sample size is also small, and 100 could just be variance, but I would post some anyways just to be sure.

[ QUOTE ]
Baz, I would seriously post some hands if I were you, your ITM stats seem reminiscent of my own when I started the $109s and I was getting too fancy, playing too many hands early and being too aggressive. When I toned that down = much better results and going way further into the tournaments (mostly, I still do have a few 9ths but that's to be expected). Obviously my sample size is also small, and 100 could just be variance, but I would post some anyways just to be sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hm.. my ITM is a bit below 37% at the moment, and I have a lot of ninths lately. I feel like I still don't know anything about preflop play during the early levels.

One thing I changed recently is folding a lot more in the SB (and raises in the BB). I used to call a lot there, thinking I had implied odds to call. But first of all, trash needs to hit at least two pair to have any value, and you're OOP all hand, so folding most hands there is probably better. Hopefully I'll notice that in my ROI. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

I remember Raptor saying once that as you gain experience you just start to "know" when they will call your pushes and when they won't. Not very helpful, but, although I haven't by any means reached that point, I can see how that starts to happen. I think I get a little bit better at this every time I play an SNG.

What I don't get is how in the world anyone can get reads when 8-tabling. I struggle to get reads at 4-tables, but do get some. When I 8-table, I'm basically playing on formula.

I remember Gigabet once wrote that in order to be an expert player you have to be able to pay attention to every hand of every table when MTing. Holy cow, I can't imagine how anyone can do this.

Baz, FWIW I have moved up to the $22s and $33s lately because I hit on a relatively large $33 MTT, finishing second, so my BR shot up. I'm rolled for these levels now, but have had very mixed results. I was spoiled by how easy it was to generate a 20+ ROI at the $11 level, and anyone who says the $22s and $33s are not more difficult than the $11s should put down the crack pipe.

[ QUOTE ]
Hm.. my ITM is a bit below 37% at the moment, and I have a lot of ninths lately. I feel like I still don't know anything about preflop play during the early levels.

One thing I changed recently is folding a lot more in the SB (and raises in the BB). I used to call a lot there, thinking I had implied odds to call. But first of all, trash needs to hit at least two pair to have any value, and you're OOP all hand, so folding most hands there is probably better. Hopefully I'll notice that in my ROI. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

When in doubt in the early levels, fold pre-flop. When I have a bit of a downturn and go back through hand-histories, almost universally I find myself tossing in chips in the early levels with something other than TT+ or AQ+. A leak I recently found was playing AQo frequently from UTG. No more.

I will complete the small blind with all hands at level 1 ($5). I recently completed with something like 93o and flopped a boat. /images/graemlins/blush.gif I will also complete multi-ways with limpers when I have pocket pairs or suited connectors. Otherwise, I do not complete other than with very strong hands.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Hm.. my ITM is a bit below 37% at the moment, and I have a lot of ninths lately. I feel like I still don't know anything about preflop play during the early levels.

One thing I changed recently is folding a lot more in the SB (and raises in the BB). I used to call a lot there, thinking I had implied odds to call. But first of all, trash needs to hit at least two pair to have any value, and you're OOP all hand, so folding most hands there is probably better. Hopefully I'll notice that in my ROI. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

When in doubt in the early levels, fold pre-flop. When I have a bit of a downturn and go back through hand-histories, almost universally I find myself tossing in chips in the early levels with something other than TT+ or AQ+. A leak I recently found was playing AQo frequently from UTG. No more.

I will complete the small blind with all hands at level 1 ($5). I recently completed with something like 93o and flopped a boat. /images/graemlins/blush.gif I will also complete multi-ways with limpers when I have pocket pairs or suited connectors. Otherwise, I do not complete other than with very strong hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes during lvl 1 I'm also very loose in the SB, but I might still fold if a hand is pure crap, so I can keep focused on tables that require more attention.

[liucipher]

Hrmmm. I don't think the FAQ has it, so I have to ask:

What's a solid "top 4" % for these lower level buyins?

[tigerite]

I would guesstimate something like 15/12/13/10 ?

[liucipher]

Lol, no wonder I'm not showing much profit for my first 200 $11s w/ 12/12/11/15.

Stupid bubble.