Does Backgammon Have More Variance Than Poker?

[Al Mirpuri]

Does backgammon have more variance than poker? Could the mathematically inclined show me where this comes about if it does come about?

[Copernicus]

Variance in poker and backgammon are both dependent on the skill level of the player and the game conditions.

IMO the variance starts higher in backgammon than hold 'em but drops precipitously when it is measured over longer and longer periods. In as short as a 17 point match I would expect a fairly small skill edge to dominate far more than a similar edge in HU poker. At one point in my decadent history I was a very skilled BG player, doing very well in high level east coast games (Mayflower, Bar Point etc), occasionally (very occasionally) beating Magriel, Holland etc. in tourneys. Over a fairly short period, however, I am confident that they would tear me apart. (Seeing Magriel in WPT though, I think I'd love to face him across felt, instead of leather.)