OESD+Flush draw...do you call? [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

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12-14-2005, 09:33 PM

Been lurking here a while now, first hand post. Appreciate any feedback you care to give. Here it goes...
Within the first couple hands at table, no real reads on villains.

PokerRoom No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

SB ($10.55)
BB ($14.55)
UTG ($24.05)
MP ($27.25)
Hero ($24.50)
Button ($20.45)

Preflop: Hero is CO with ,J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif .
UTG calls $0.25, MP calls $0.25, Hero calls $0.25, 1 fold, SB raises to $1.65, BB calls $1.40, UTG folds, MP folds, Hero calls $1.40.

Flop: ($5.45) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 players)
SB bets $8.9 (All-In), BB calls $8.90, Hero ???.

BB has $4 left...
comments on preflop and flop appreciated.

Deftone420

EMcWilliams

12-14-2005, 09:36 PM

Push here, BB will call. You have an excellent holding, and a good pot equity edge.

12-14-2005, 09:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Push here, BB will call. You have an excellent holding, and a good pot equity edge.

[/ QUOTE ]
What would you put BB on?

EMcWilliams

12-14-2005, 09:49 PM

I think SB an overpair or AQ, and BB has a weaker queen and is hoping you will fold.

wdeadwyler

12-14-2005, 09:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Push here, BB will call. You have an excellent holding, and a good pot equity edge.

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What would you put BB on?

[/ QUOTE ]

Who cares, you have a combodraw getting better than 3-1. Push

J Chap

12-14-2005, 09:52 PM

AQ, Ahxh, AK, anything, really. Thing is, you're comfortably ahead of just about all of his possible hands, except maybe a set, which you're not bad against, either.

actually, my friends and i were discussing this the other day. Top set vs. OESD+FD. set has 10 outs to improve and be unbeatable, OESD+FD has 15 outs to improve, not all of which are clean, and any of which will be worthless if set hits any of his outs. i guess set is probably well ahead.

anyway, push confidently in this case.

12-14-2005, 09:57 PM

How clean my outs were was my biggest concern. Seemed that with this board one or either of my draws could be suckers. Seeing monsters??

Cosimo

12-14-2005, 09:59 PM

You have a 42% chance to win this hand, so a call is justified. Specifically, there is a 42% chance that you will make your straight or flush. Note that you could make your flush but someone else can fill up and beat you, or have a higher flush. Ditto for the straight: someone could fill up. On the other hand, you could hit two running cards to get an overset. These about average out (tho not exactly), so I'd say 42% is close enough.

With a greater than 33% chance to win, you can call a pot-sized bet (assuming no further betting). If someone bets pot and someone else calls, it's an easy call. Since BB only has $4 behind, it's an easy push.

You have 15 outs (assuming your str8 draw is to the nuts, and the flush will be good). That's about 2:1 for the next card. If there's going to be further betting, you can call a pot bet even if there's no other callers.

It doesn't matter that you're behind now. Hold'em is played with 7 cards.

J Chap

12-14-2005, 10:00 PM

to me, the $9 cold call from BB means one of two things:
-he has a monster like a set and he's being greedy
-he has a draw.

i still think this is a definite push in NL25.

J Chap

12-14-2005, 10:05 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You have a 42% chance to win this hand

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm not sure that's a true statement.

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there is a 42% chance that you will make your straight or flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think the odds are greater than that.

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you could hit two running cards to get an overset.

[/ QUOTE ]

You would have three-of-a-kind and villain who had a set would now have a full house.

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It doesn't matter that you're behind now. Hold'em is played with 7 cards.

[/ QUOTE ]

there we go

12-14-2005, 10:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
to me, the $9 cold call from BB means one of two things:
-he has a monster like a set and he's being greedy
-he has a draw.

i still think this is a definite push in NL25.

[/ QUOTE ]
So I am either behind a set which would have redraw outs against my made str8 or flush, or I am behind a draw that could be dominating my potential made hands. BB is not folding for 4 more. This doesn't seem like an easy call/push to me. If stacks were deeper and SB had led for PSB and BB had called I probably would have raised big/pushed instantly.
Does anybody fold here???

Cosimo

12-14-2005, 11:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You have a 42% chance to win this hand

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm not sure that's a true statement.

[/ QUOTE ]

Indeed. You might note that I qualified this statement later in the same paragraph.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

there is a 42% chance that you will make your straight or flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think the odds are greater than that.

[/ QUOTE ]

oops /images/graemlins/blush.gif

9 flush outs + 6 straight outs = 15 total outs.

15 outs, 47 turn cards = 31.9. 68.1% that you miss and 32.6% that you hit on the river. Total of 54%.

So, yeah, I was off. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[ QUOTE ]
you could hit two running cards to get an overset.

You would have three-of-a-kind and villain who had a set would now have a full house.

[/ QUOTE ]

... but villain might only have two pair or one pair or an overpair ...

My point was, there's ways of winning that don't include hitting the straight or flush. He could be bluffing, he might have you beat but in such a way that one or two magic cards (that aren't str8 or flush cards) would help you win, etc.

The whole gist here is that, with a 54% chance of hitting your straight or flush, that loosely translates into a 54% chance of winning. It's extremely difficult to correct the chance-of-hitting calculation into chance-of-winning since villain's hand is unknown. If you have reads that suggest he has a set, etc, you can plug those into twodimes and get a precise percentage, but ....

So, I take the 54% chance of hitting as a 54% chance of winning. The primary thing here is to decide to call or not, and at this point, OP is looking for 25% or better. It doesn't matter if it's 42% or 54% or 52.7937%; it's definitely greater than 25%.

And I'm not going to pick nits on the 25% /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

wegs the wegs

12-15-2005, 12:08 AM

Push and love it. Heads up against pocket aces you're a 55/45 favorite with an open ended straight flush draw. Against top set you're only a 42/58 dog. Push push push. Against two players already all in if you seriously folded here let me know, I'd love to play you.

I had a similar hand earlier this week and I think it played out pretty well in my favor. Take a look.

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG ($50)
Hero ($107.70)
SB ($83.30)
BB ($106.30)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif. UTG posts a blind of $1.
UTG (poster) raises to $3.5, Hero calls $3.50, 1 fold, BB calls $2.50.

Flop: ($11) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 players)
BB checks, UTG bets $11, Hero calls $11, BB raises to $55, UTG raises all-in to $66 , Hero raises all-in to $103, BB calls all-in with $102.

Turn: ($253) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)

River: ($253) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 players)

Final Pot: $253

Results in white below: 
BB has 9c Jc (one pair, nines).
UTG has Jd Qs (one pair, queens).
Hero has Js As (flush, ace high).
Outcome: Hero wins $253.

12-15-2005, 12:24 AM

Don't think just push : )

12-15-2005, 01:01 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Push and love it. Heads up against pocket aces you're a 55/45 favorite with an open ended straight flush draw. Against top set you're only a 42/58 dog. Push push push. Against two players already all in if you seriously folded here let me know, I'd love to play you.

I had a similar hand earlier this week and I think it played out pretty well in my favor. Take a look.

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG ($50)
Hero ($107.70)
SB ($83.30)
BB ($106.30)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif. UTG posts a blind of $1.
UTG (poster) raises to $3.5, Hero calls $3.50, 1 fold, BB calls $2.50.

Flop: ($11) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 players)
BB checks, UTG bets $11, Hero calls $11, BB raises to $55, UTG raises all-in to $66 , Hero raises all-in to $103, BB calls all-in with $102.

Turn: ($253) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)

River: ($253) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 players)

Final Pot: $253

Results in white below: 
BB has 9c Jc (one pair, nines).
UTG has Jd Qs (one pair, queens).
Hero has Js As (flush, ace high).
Outcome: Hero wins $253. 

[/ QUOTE ]
I think your hand is very different. For one you have much deeper stacks, you are drawing to the NUT flush and straight draws, and you ahve more fold equity. Given that I wasn't getting anymore money out of this hand and had zero fold equity, I did fold. I can see how it could be a mistake, but it doesn't seem as cut and dry to me.

LetYouDown

12-15-2005, 02:06 AM

Fold preflop. Stop being loose/passive. As played, obvious flop push.

12-15-2005, 02:10 AM

Ok,

Never mind.. I figured this out...

Hero has 9 hearts that will most likely give him the nuts, and 6 cards to give him the straight (subtracting the hearts).

Pot is at 23.25, and it's 8.9 to call.
So, 1:2.6

Basically, we need to be 27% or better to call here, right?

15 outs with 47 cards left = 31% chance. The extra river card makes it even better. Easy call.

Now, suppose BB didn't call... should hero still call the all-in?

Here's the math for that:
Total pot: 14.35
pot odds: 1:1.6, need 38% chance to call.

Two dimes says:
if he has a set: 40/60
if he has AA/KK: 55/45
if he has AhAx : 50/50
if he has 2pair(QT): 51/48

So, we should STILL be calling here, even without the BB in.
Nice, huh?

booger

12-15-2005, 03:02 AM

you called a decent raise with J9 suited and flopped oesd and flush draw...what were you hoping for JJ9 flop?? push, you have good odds. reload if you lose ..stack chips if u win and go on to the next hand.

12-15-2005, 06:27 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Pot is at 23.25, and it's 8.9 to call.
So, 1:2.6

[/ QUOTE ]
Not a big thing, but if we are calling, we might as well raise BB all in for his last 4 dollars. In that case, the pot is 27.25 and you must call 12.9. You're getting 2.11 to 1 and you need a 32.13% chance of winning the hand to call.

[ QUOTE ]
Now, suppose BB didn't call... should hero still call the all-in?

[/ QUOTE ]
I think we should be thinking about BB calling because that complicates things.

I think this is definitely a clear flop push, but its not always going to be as pretty as everyone thinks. Up against A /images/graemlins/heart.gifK /images/graemlins/heart.gif and Q /images/graemlins/heart.gifQ /images/graemlins/diamond.gif would lower our equity to 15.17. However, against their ranges of hands, you definitely have enough equity to call.

12-15-2005, 07:11 AM

Limp fold preflop according to the 5/10 rule...

12-15-2005, 02:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Pot is at 23.25, and it's 8.9 to call.
So, 1:2.6

[/ QUOTE ]
Not a big thing, but if we are calling, we might as well raise BB all in for his last 4 dollars. In that case, the pot is 27.25 and you must call 12.9. You're getting 2.11 to 1 and you need a 32.13% chance of winning the hand to call.

[ QUOTE ]
Now, suppose BB didn't call... should hero still call the all-in?

[/ QUOTE ]
I think we should be thinking about BB calling because that complicates things.

I think this is definitely a clear flop push, but its not always going to be as pretty as everyone thinks. Up against A /images/graemlins/heart.gifK /images/graemlins/heart.gif and Q /images/graemlins/heart.gifQ /images/graemlins/diamond.gif would lower our equity to 15.17. However, against their ranges of hands, you definitely have enough equity to call.

[/ QUOTE ]
This was my point. I think I should have called/pushed but I didnt think both my draws were clean. If BB had not cold called, i would have insta called. This was exactly the kind of flop I wanted to get, but then the action convinced me I was behind/way behind a made hand, and may have been up against a draw that would be the nuts. Live and learn.
I also think preflop was ugly. I don't know why I got so passive/ I didn't pay close attention to SB stack.
Anyways, SB was on straight draw with KJo no hearts and BB had QTo with no hearts. So both by draws were good and I puked when the K came on river.

btetreau

12-15-2005, 02:49 PM

I don't think that the general 5/10 speaks for suited one-gappers, but maybe we heard different versions.

I'd be worried that the BB had a higher flush draw (A /images/graemlins/heart.gifQ /images/graemlins/heart.gif would make sense) but with the stack sizes, you've got to push.

wdeadwyler

12-15-2005, 02:50 PM

I dont like the application of the 5/10 rule in this case. Hands like 67s, J9s, arent like small pairs. With small pairs, you hit your set, and your good.

Suited connectors can flop big (made hands) and they can flop draws. When we flop draws, especially OOP, we arent always stacking out opponents. Alot of times, 1/4-1/2 of the time we just lose more money after the flop, then check fold on a later steet, or villain doesnt pay us off. No one sees a set coming, but when there are two hearts on the flop and a 3rd one hits on the turn, villain's figure out the flush just got there.

5/10 Rule applies to small pairs and not SC IMO.

nietzreznor

12-15-2005, 03:05 PM

Push.

Sometimes you'll be up against a big hand and a better flush, but at this level you'll be up against random junk the majority if the time, and you have a huge draw and great equity. Stick it in.