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View Full Version : ($2000) L1, AK TPTK facing minraise


Munkster
12-14-2005, 07:01 PM
Step 4 Higher - I took a shot last night seeing an easy field.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG+2 (t1000)
MP1 (t990)
MP2 (t960)
Hero (t1000)
CO (t1100)
Button (t945)
SB (t985)
BB (t1045)
UTG (t1025)
UTG+1 (t950)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls t15, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t60</font>, CO calls t60, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, UTG calls t45.

Flop: (t205) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t150</font>, CO folds, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t300</font>

Reads:
My image is unknown - I am under a new screen name and this is the first hand I have played in this tournament
Villain - I watched her in the previous step 4 SNGand she seemed to be one of the more weaker players: loose pf (called an allin and a reraise allin w/77 (10bb stack), did not fully understand pot odds (75/150 blinds and she was bb for ~ 425 chips (280 after posting), folded to button push).

I usually raise a little more pf here (65+) but I felt the field was more weak tight than usual.

A couple of questions,
What's my line after the CR?
What's my line if she CR allin?

I feel the optimal line will be something like p% call, (100-p)% fold (esp regarding the 2nd question, if you call/fold all the time it can be easily exploited).

Thanks in advance,
f

bigt439
12-14-2005, 07:13 PM
With her limping UTG and playing the flop the way she did I think you're up against a weaker ace a lot of the time if she is as bad you say. Sure it's a set sometime but I can't imagine folding here against the player you described. I'd call and push to a bet or check on the turn. It's doubtful that move is a FD. Again, if the players are as bad as the one you described your metagame calculations are unnecessary.

schwza
12-14-2005, 07:14 PM
i would call the c/r and plan to get a-i on any turn card. from the sounds of the player, could be a lot of small Ax hands, and i think calling the turn is the best way to stack off.

for question 2, p = call % = 100.

what is step 4 high payout schedule?

Munkster
12-14-2005, 07:53 PM
1st - 10,000
2nd - 5,000
3rd - 3,000
4th - 1,500
5th - 500

What if the villain is a solid unknown player (ignoring my read) - what would you do given the action?

Re: Schwza
under what conditions (if any given the structure) would you consider folding AK HU after hitting the A? if the villain reraises to 400?)
Assume no reads.

Thanks,
f

RiverDood
12-14-2005, 08:02 PM
This strikes me as exactly the way a weaker player would handle A8 or A4 that just made two pair.

Villain would limp UTG with such a dubious hand in the first place (especially if suited); call Hero's small preflop raise with a dominated hand, and then try to trap on the flop.

I realize at higher levels this shouldn't be happening. But everything in the read suggests that we're seeing someone with more rudimentary skills and strategy.

In that case, Hero is drawing very thin and should let go

ZeroPointMachine
12-14-2005, 08:57 PM
MTT wisdom says to avoid donking off your stack with TPTK early in a tournament. However, this isn't a MTT, stacks are really too shallow for much maneuvering and this is a pair of aces(so overpairs are not possible). UTG range is really hard to narrow down here. What she has done is narrowed your range. If your PF raising range was something typically tight like TT+ and AQ+, you are probably c-betting here 90% of the time. You either have an ace or you go away. Her min-raise now has you laying down most of your PF raising range. Hell, you're considering laying down AK some portion of the time. She could have a set, another ace, KQ of hearts, a goofy 2 pair, any pocket pair or complete air. The stacks are too shallow to play TPTK weakly here. If you had a really strong read that Villain is not capable of making a play then maybe you can fold. From what you've given I would say Villain has a little gamble in her.

Another thought: If villain can beat TPTK, why would she take the lead from you here? She's not afraid of a flush draw with the suited Ace on the board is she? If she has top two pair you have 3 outs, top and bottom gives you 6 outs. Everything about her raise smells bad to me. If I go broke here then so be it.

I think a better question would be how deep do stacks have to be in order to get away from TPTK(aces or kings). I think they have to be almost twice this deep before I can do it.

schwza
12-14-2005, 09:37 PM
[ QUOTE ]
1st - 10,000
2nd - 5,000
3rd - 3,000
4th - 1,500
5th - 500

What if the villain is a solid unknown player (ignoring my read) - what would you do given the action?

Re: Schwza
under what conditions (if any given the structure) would you consider folding AK HU after hitting the A? if the villain reraises to 400?)
Assume no reads.

Thanks,
f

[/ QUOTE ]

do you want the villain to be solid or unknown? against an unknown, i'd take the line i described above (call F, push T).

if the player was a known star who was buying in directly to 1k stt's then i don't really know how i'd play it. i try to avoid playing against poeple who fit that description.

Munkster
12-14-2005, 10:05 PM
I agree w/ most of your analysis, thanks.
My plan was to call flop and fold to her push on the turn (if she pushes). Like everyone said, there is a strong possibility for her to be just taking a shot at me w/ that minraise (although I do not think she is good enough to be that tricky to take a shot on an ACE High flop if that makes any sense) - I do not have a strong read, so folding was not a consideration. However, I felt that if she does push/bet turn, I am less than a 2:1 favourite to have her beat and a fold is correct - any comments?

I definitely agree we should not be folding here a majority of the time or else I would be taking a shot here against the PFR everytime (If you are laying down AK w/ A on the flop, you will be also laying down AQ/KK/QQ/JJ/TT, so taking a shot at such a weaktight pfr is hugely +EV).

The other questions I had were just out of curiosity to see what times, if any, would you lay down AK TPTK HU early in a SNG. I guess the conclusion is never given the shallow stacks.

As to the hand, I called and the turn was a K (non heart) and I knew I am not going away now. Once she checked the turn I knew I was golden (very unlikely for her to check a set there), I pushed and she called w/ A4 and my hand held up.

Thanks for all the responses and any additional comments are welcome,
f

tewall
12-14-2005, 11:15 PM
<font color="white"> nt </font>

RiverDood
12-14-2005, 11:27 PM
Nice outcome. Glad to see the best hand preflop held up.

I remember seeing that move with A4, etc. all the time at the play money tables a couple years ago. People did it constantly. Everything about your description of Villain made me think you were up against someone at that level of savvy.

If we were dead solid certain that you were drawing to a three-outer or five-outer, then it's a hand to release after Villain's flop raise, no? But given other posters' belief that she might also be raising with air, the flop call and cautious approach on the turn sounds like the winning ticket.

Glad it worked out.

citanul
12-15-2005, 01:50 AM
i believe the villain doesn't have you beat on the flop here about 10% of the time. nice suckout.

schwza
12-15-2005, 02:14 AM
[ QUOTE ]
i believe the villain doesn't have you beat on the flop here about 10% of the time. nice suckout.

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm skeptical.

so you fold the flop?

bigt439
12-15-2005, 04:50 AM
[ QUOTE ]
i believe the villain doesn't have you beat on the flop here about 10% of the time. nice suckout.

[/ QUOTE ]

Meh. Come on, this looks like two pair or a set just as much as AQ - AT.

citanul
12-15-2005, 06:05 AM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i believe the villain doesn't have you beat on the flop here about 10% of the time. nice suckout.

[/ QUOTE ]

Meh. Come on, this looks like two pair or a set just as much as AQ - AT.

[/ QUOTE ]

no, it doesn't.

c

bigt439
12-15-2005, 02:12 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i believe the villain doesn't have you beat on the flop here about 10% of the time. nice suckout.

[/ QUOTE ]

Meh. Come on, this looks like two pair or a set just as much as AQ - AT.

[/ QUOTE ]

no, it doesn't.

c

[/ QUOTE ]

A limp utg with A4 or A8 would be just as donkish as the check minraise with a worse A. I think the pf action makes this hand more interesting than it otherwise would be.

Munkster
12-15-2005, 08:44 PM
[ QUOTE ]
i believe the villain doesn't have you beat on the flop here about 10% of the time. nice suckout.

[/ QUOTE ]

so do you suggest we fold flop here?
If that's the case, can't this be easily exploited? If you are folding AK on an Ahigh flop to a minraise, your range of calling after you raised pf on a Ahigh board is very small (AA) and it would be hugely +EV to take a shot at you at such flops. I understand obviously you would change the way you play this hand if you've seen such plays from the villain before but I still find it hard to believe folding 100% can be the correct play here against an unknown.

f

ZeroPointMachine
12-15-2005, 09:08 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i believe the villain doesn't have you beat on the flop here about 10% of the time. nice suckout.

[/ QUOTE ]

so do you suggest we fold flop here?
If that's the case, can't this be easily exploited? If you are folding AK on an Ahigh flop to a minraise, your range of calling after you raised pf on a Ahigh board is very small (AA) and it would be hugely +EV to take a shot at you at such flops. I understand obviously you would change the way you play this hand if you've seen such plays from the villain before but I still find it hard to believe folding 100% can be the correct play here against an unknown.

f

[/ QUOTE ]

This particular situation is very exploitable and I do it quite often. I believe it is a high varience, but +EV, move.

OOP against a weak-tight pre-flop raiser early levels.

What is his range?

Flop comes specifically A-rag-rag or K-rag-rag with no flush draw.

I check. Villian bets 1/2-3/4 pot.

Which hands in his range does he bet?

What if any does he check?

I raise somewhere between min-raise and pot.

What percentage of his range does he fold?

I'm willing to make this move because I think the ~1300 stack gives me more flexibility to pickup small pots early and helps me more than a ~700 stack early hurts me.

Thoughts??

microbet
12-15-2005, 09:11 PM
Against unknowns I never do something some percent of the time and something else some other percent. I do what I think is optimal given my read and my image. If I decided a fold is best here, I would fold and then take that into account in the future, possibly setting up a trap later. In a STT you are just too likely to never have a similar situation come up again to intentionally do something you think is second best.

12-15-2005, 09:29 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Against unknowns I never do something some percent of the time and something else some other percent. I do what I think is optimal given my read and my image. If I decided a fold is best here, I would fold and then take that into account in the future, possibly setting up a trap later. In a STT you are just too likely to never have a similar situation come up again to intentionally do something you think is second best.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks Microbet.... this was very good for me to hear. Something Harrington didn't mention in his books.

Munkster
12-15-2005, 09:35 PM
Thank you for correcting my thinking here (the signs of me being a limit player).
Any insights on the specifics of the above situation?
f

Munkster
12-15-2005, 09:42 PM
[ QUOTE ]

This particular situation is very exploitable and I do it quite often. I believe it is a high varience, but +EV, move.


[/ QUOTE ]
This is one of the key points I was curious about. However, can we really expect a solid/tag opponent to fold AK/AQ on a Ahigh flop?

[ QUOTE ]

OOP against a weak-tight pre-flop raiser early levels.

What is his range?


[/ QUOTE ]
My guess would be JJ-AA, AK, AQs. Possibly add in TT, AQ, AJs.

[ QUOTE ]

Flop comes specifically A-rag-rag or K-rag-rag with no flush draw.

I check. Villian bets 1/2-3/4 pot.

Which hands in his range does he bet?


[/ QUOTE ]
I would expect a c-bet 95% of the time, esp HU

[ QUOTE ]

What if any does he check?


[/ QUOTE ]
Warning bells: he has a monster, unless he is really really weak/tight.

[ QUOTE ]

I raise somewhere between min-raise and pot.


[/ QUOTE ]
I would be tempted to raise also, except much more likely in an A high flop rather than a K high flop.

[ QUOTE ]

What percentage of his range does he fold?

I'm willing to make this move because I think the ~1300 stack gives me more flexibility to pickup small pots early and helps me more than a ~700 stack early hurts me.

Thoughts??

[/ QUOTE ]

bigt439
12-15-2005, 10:48 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Against unknowns I never do something some percent of the time and something else some other percent. I do what I think is optimal given my read and my image. If I decided a fold is best here, I would fold and then take that into account in the future, possibly setting up a trap later. In a STT you are just too likely to never have a similar situation come up again to intentionally do something you think is second best.

[/ QUOTE ]

Everyone make sure you read this. This metagame [censored] is getting out of hand.

ZeroPointMachine
12-15-2005, 10:51 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

This particular situation is very exploitable and I do it quite often. I believe it is a high varience, but +EV, move.


[/ QUOTE ]
This is one of the key points I was curious about. However, can we really expect a solid/tag opponent to fold AK/AQ on a Ahigh flop?

[ QUOTE ]

OOP against a weak-tight pre-flop raiser early levels.

What is his range?


[/ QUOTE ]
My guess would be JJ-AA, AK, AQs. Possibly add in TT, AQ, AJs.

[ QUOTE ]

Flop comes specifically A-rag-rag or K-rag-rag with no flush draw.

I check. Villian bets 1/2-3/4 pot.

Which hands in his range does he bet?


[/ QUOTE ]
I would expect a c-bet 95% of the time, esp HU

[ QUOTE ]

What if any does he check?

[/ QUOTE ]
Warning bells: he has a monster, unless he is really really weak/tight.
[ QUOTE ]

I raise somewhere between min-raise and pot.


[/ QUOTE ]
I would be tempted to raise also, except much more likely in an A high flop rather than a K high flop.

[ QUOTE ]

What percentage of his range does he fold?

I'm willing to make this move because I think the ~1300 stack gives me more flexibility to pickup small pots early and helps me more than a ~700 stack early hurts me.

Thoughts??

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the key. He only checks monsters. This would include top set, and many times TPTK(or AA on a K high board) because the board is so non-threatening and he might induce a bluff on the turn. Part of making this play successful is to never make that bluff.

His pre-flop range is so narrow that the percentage of hands he checks is much higher than the 5% you allowed. But that means the percentage of hands he can call your raise with just went down.