Cold Call 3 and Chase; Bet Sklansky Didn't Teach This!

[Roadstar]

Fairly Loose and Aggressive 2/4 game. The table is a mix of LPPs and LAGs (somehwat LA-N (postflop)). UTG and UTG+2 are a little loose and aggressive preflop. Everyone else is generally loose preflop and quite passive postflop.

Here we go.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 3-bets</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG calls.

With the everyone and their mom calling the 3 bet, I think the implied odds justify a 3 bet cold call (with position). Anyone disagree?


Flop: (19.50 SB) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 bets</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, Hero calls, UTG folds.

Flop missed - while I don't close the action, I only have to worry about UTG (which could be check raising I suppose). I decide to call given a gizzilion in the pot (ok, 20:1 is not bad). Comments here? UTG+2 smells like an overpair or at least big cards, whereas god knows what all the other LPPs have.

Turn: (11.75 BB) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 bets</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, Hero calls.

The 4 gives me more outs, although the the /images/graemlins/diamond.gif and the /images/graemlins/heart.gif outs are dirty. so I have a 5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif (maybe), 2 2s and 2 7s. for maybe 5 outs. Although some connectors could be drawing to higher straight. Can you fold here or does the pot size drag you along for one more street?

River: (15.75 BB) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
UTG+2 checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, Hero calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 folds.

The 5 comes I get lucky?, not entirely comfortable with this (77 beats me here). MP2 comes alive. I call hoping for overcalls since I'm not sure if I'm ahead. A raise would probably play UTG+2 and MP1 out and I'd hate to be 3 bet. Like the river call?

Comments please on this somewhat uneasy hand!

I fully expect some "fold preflop" responses /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Final Pot: 18.75 BB

[pokerjunky]

Post flop looks great IMO.

Pre flop: Your getting roughly 5:1 to call. Having it get capped won't really matter since you'll still be getting the same odds. The odds of flopping a set are roughly 7:1 although with this many people putting in 3 bets PF your going to be drawing to one out quite often with a set if the flop comes with a lot of broadway cards, not the mention the times you lose to a flush or straight.

I'm not quite sure what the pot needs to be laying here but I'm thinking somewhere in the neighborhood of 10 or 11:1 to make up for the times your set doesn't hold up by the river. I think you can easily make up this deficit in this situation so I like the PF call.

[TheHip41]

Yes people, Party 2/4 is sooooooooo hard /images/graemlins/grin.gif

For ****'s sake, i'd start calling with hands like 68s, with that many cold callers, I'm not folding a pair there, ever.

Flop is the only debatable street imo. You have backdoor straight outs, so say 1. You have 1 clean set out. So over all you are looking at 2 outs if no one raises behind you. I think getting about 20-1, I'd have to call, because if you hit a 5, you are going to get paid on the turn and river.

Turn, easy easy call with an up and down draw getting 400-1.

River

Raising doesn't do much but fold hands you crush, and gets you 3 bet by a 7. I'd call and hope he has some raggedy ass two pair, or KK that was afraid to bet any other street.

[djhoneybear]

not to be too harsh but I don't like the play on any street. I fold pre-flop. I can understand calling though as if you do hit a set you do have lots of fish to pay you off. The flop is bad for you - I would fold here even if I was sure I was ahead. You really need to hit a 5 at this point and not the 5 of hearts which means you are drawing to one out - fold. The turn 4 of diamond gives you a couple of outs you can feel good about (the two black 2a and the two black 7s). You might win with a 2 or 7 of diamond (we'll generously call that one out but I wouldn't count either 5 as an out at this point. So you have 5 outs. The river is the 5 making a one card straight possible. Your three 5s are beat - there is no way I would raise here - you might get someone with a 2 to fold but I don't think it is enough.

In summary:

preflop - fold
flop - fold
turn - fold
river - fold

[CptnNemo]

I'm going to agree with many of the posts before me. First is your preflop play. FOLD. I play a ton of 2/4 party full ring and 3-bets are rare, even with higher pockets like QQ or KK many times people will simply raise or call-a-raise, cluelessly slow playing. There is no reason to think your fives are a solid hand, and you don't hit trips enough times on the flop to justify calling a three bet. I'm out of this hand like a light unless I either 1) know UTG+2 is loose and agressive...like one of those guys with a 20-30% pf raise figure or 2) I got 10-10's or better.

I then disagree with your flop call. There are four people before you, I'm guessing they are going to have 1) A high pocket pair 2) High overs 3)heart flush draw and 4) I have no f'ing clue what 4 has. Here in my head I "know" I am beat, making the odds in my head 100,000 to 0 and I fold.

After that I think the rest of your play is good, but you should have never gone that far. I wish you had won that hand so I could go find the matching "suck out" post somewhere on here.

[TheHip41]

[ QUOTE ]
not to be too harsh but I don't like the play on any street. I fold pre-flop. I can understand calling though as if you do hit a set you do have lots of fish to pay you off. The flop is bad for you - I would fold here even if I was sure I was ahead. You really need to hit a 5 at this point and not the 5 of hearts which means you are drawing to one out - fold. The turn 4 of diamond gives you a couple of outs you can feel good about (the two black 2a and the two black 7s). You might win with a 2 or 7 of diamond (we'll generously call that one out but I wouldn't count either 5 as an out at this point. So you have 5 outs. The river is the 5 making a one card straight possible. Your three 5s are beat - there is no way I would raise here - you might get someone with a 2 to fold but I don't think it is enough.

In summary:

preflop - fold
flop - fold
turn - fold
river - fold

[/ QUOTE ]

What? you are contradicting yourself.

The flop he's getting 24-1. He has 1 solid out with the non flush 5. He has at least 1 out for back door straight draws.

[ QUOTE ]
You really need to hit a 5 at this point and not the 5 of hearts which means you are drawing to one out - fold. The turn 4 of diamond gives you a couple of outs you can feel good about

[/ QUOTE ]

You say he has 1 out, but wait, he picks up like 4-8 more on the turn.

On the turn he's getting 15-1 with an up and down straight draw, why would you ever fold here. Seriously.

All in all, folding preflop isn't bad, or good, either way is probably about the same. But if you are going to call preflop, you can't fold this flop for 1 bet, nor can you fold the turn for 1 bet, nor can you fold the river getting like 18-1 with a set.

nice hand, hope you won it.

[ QUOTE ]
river - fold

[/ QUOTE ]

really? I realize there are four to a straight, but you hit an 'out'. Yes, you are going to lose this alot, but are you good 3-4% of the time, absolutely. He could have AA, and just didn't bet or raise because he was a pussy. This would be a horrible river fold.

[damaniac]

Not to be harsh, but this is awful, wretched advice.

Preflop is the only street that is really that debateable. He's looking at essentially 16:3 (better if more come along, 21:4 if they don't), so I'd say he has to make up around 14 sb's postflop when he wins. He has great relative position to the field, if he flops a set, the raiser bets, they all call, he raises, that's like half of what he needs right there, and sometimes it gets 3-bet, later streets, yada yadda yadda.

Flop, no way I'm folding essentially closing the action getting 20:1, even if I'm not in love with the 5 /images/graemlins/heart.gif falling. Folding an OESD, even against somewhat tainted getting 15:1 is again bad. And the river, eh, you're probably beat, and if someone other than the aggressor all hand raises I fold, but you can call hoping he's FOS at whatever:1.

[Roadstar]

Thanks for the detailed responses, I really appreciate it. I'm hoping to get more insight on the preflop and flop calls. Initially my thought process was that my implied odds were quite good preflop and peeling one of the flop was ok given the pot size. However, with that much action, how much do you discount your implied odds with losing over higher set, straight or flush?

For those who didn't like my play: you may be right about preflop but I don't think the postflop is too bad.

Remember this is a table full of LAGs and LPPs, the LAGs have a very wide open and 3 betting range, and the LPPs also have a very wide cold calling range - my play (if correct) is in hopes of capitalizing on a number of mistakes by these guys even though I'm very likely an underdog to a couple of these guys. While an underdog, the question is whether I'm well compensated by the significant pot size.

I know SSHE's starting chart would not advocate a 3 bet cold call but I'm just trying to see if this is one of those exceptions where poor preflop play from opponents makes the cold call profitable (if only marginally).

I'm NOT folding the river to 1 bet here by the way.


Results to come later /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Looks fine to me PF. EV is maybe neutral to slightly +, but hell, playing is always more fun than folding. You're playing for a set, and you're in position on a big field in a monster pot.

Flop is the only one I really questions. You're calling for maybe 1.5 outs or LESS. Maybe. If you had the 5h it'd be an easy call with that pot with a shade over 2-ish outs (if you count the bd straight a smidgen). With this field, however, your outs to the set are dirty as well as unlikely. Not just flush draw dirty, but set and redraw dirty.

The rest looks fine to me, including letting others overcall.

[djhoneybear]

My appologies for some quick reading. I thought it was two bets to you on the flop making it an easy fold. Even with two outs then it is a call considering your implied odds are nice.

[Jake (The Snake)]

[ QUOTE ]
Pre flop: Your getting roughly 5:1 to call. Having it get capped won't really matter since you'll still be getting the same odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is incorrect. Try doing the math on the difference between 5:1 and 20:4 on how bets you need to make up postflop.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Pre flop: Your getting roughly 5:1 to call. Having it get capped won't really matter since you'll still be getting the same odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is incorrect. Try doing the math on the difference between 5:1 and 20:4 on how bets you need to make up postflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are getting 5:1 to call, and it's about 7.5:1 to flop a set. So you can make up 2.5 SB postflop and you will break even. Seem likely in this game, unfortunately, it's not 2.5 SB you have to make up; it's 3 times this. You will need to earn just under 4BB postflop to make up for your preflop call, so I think it's really really really close if it's even +EV at all.

[Roadstar]

Here are the results, I got terribly lucky:

UTG+2 had AA

MP2 had 44

MHIG /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

I have no idea why MP2 didn't raise the turn when he hit the miracle card - I definitely would (EDITED) have been TOUGH to cold call 2 on the turn.

I know it was a suckout but poor opponents (cold 3 bet calling preflop) and weak post flop play (MP2s smooth call on the turn) gave me some equity/odds that I shouldn't have had to begin with I think.

[TheHip41]

[ QUOTE ]
Here are the results, I got terribly lucky:

UTG+2 had AA

MP2 had 44

MHIG /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

I have no idea why MP2 didn't raise the turn when he hit the miracle card - I definitely would not have cold called 2 on the turn.

I know it was a suckout but poor opponents (cold 3 bet calling preflop) and weak post flop play (MP2s smooth call on the turn) gave me some equity/odds that I shouldn't have had to begin with I think.

[/ QUOTE ]

You would cold call 2 on the turn getting 8-1 with an up and down straight draw? Really?

NH, glad you took it down.

[Songwind]

*grunch*
I fold preflop when it's 3 to me. With this kind of action preflop, what are you going to do when you hit your set with A, K or Q on the board?

Flop: Since you're there, you actually have the odds to chase the 2-outer, so I call as well.

Turn: I agree with your read on the outs, and I call here for 15:1

River: You are a shameless luckbox. /images/graemlins/smile.gif I understand your reasoning on hoping for overcalls, but I believe I would raise. I think you're ahead here often enough to make it profitable.

[Roadstar]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Here are the results, I got terribly lucky:

UTG+2 had AA

MP2 had 44

MHIG /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

I have no idea why MP2 didn't raise the turn when he hit the miracle card - I definitely would not have cold called 2 on the turn.

I know it was a suckout but poor opponents (cold 3 bet calling preflop) and weak post flop play (MP2s smooth call on the turn) gave me some equity/odds that I shouldn't have had to begin with I think.

[/ QUOTE ]

You would cold call 2 on the turn getting 8-1 with an up and down straight draw? Really?

NH, glad you took it down.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're right, I could have just bit my tongue and press call on the turn if raised.... because a raise shouldn't been a made straight here... you're right..

[ErrantNight]

how is it that you figure he's getting 20:1 on the flop but 400:1 on the turn?

otherwise i completely agree with you /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Roadstar]

[ QUOTE ]
*grunch*
I fold preflop when it's 3 to me. With this kind of action preflop, what are you going to do when you hit your set with A, K or Q on the board?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well this table was a mix of LAGs and LPPs. Out of the past 10 hands, 3 were probably capped preflop - so I thought I had the odds here. A controversial play I suppose, and Jake pointed out (and its a good one) that a cap behind me makes it harder to make up on implied odds.

[ QUOTE ]

Flop: Since you're there, you actually have the odds to chase the 2-outer, so I call as well.

Turn: I agree with your read on the outs, and I call here for 15:1

River: You are a shameless luckbox. /images/graemlins/smile.gif I understand your reasoning on hoping for overcalls, but I believe I would raise. I think you're ahead here often enough to make it profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I'm a shameless luckbox /images/graemlins/grin.gif I did pick up a bunch of outs on the turn tho!

I don't think I'd raise because of the overcalls. Think of it this way:

If I raise the river, ppl behind me are likely to fold and IF I'm ahead MP2 calls so I get an extra 1BB. If I'm behind, MP2 will 3 bet, I (not having the disclipine in face of a monster pot) will make a crying call and lose 2BB.

BUT if I just call (still thinking I'm ahead), I'm likely to count on the 2 behind me to call due to the size of the pot and the likelihood of them holding something like AA or KK. So if I call, 2 overalls, that is an extra 2 BB if I win, WITHOUT having to put in another BB myself. If I lose I lose.

So in summary:

Raise: Cost - 2BB to win 1 more BB if ahead, Cost - 3 BB if 3 bet and likely to lose

Call: Cost - 1BB to win potentially 2 more BB (but probably at least 1 as is the case here), Cost 1BB if I lose since aggressor can't raise his own bet.

I guess we could factor in a raise behind me but thats less likely.