Stupid Call? 34o in BB.

[Sykes]

3 handed, so ITM already.

Blinds of 600/1200 and I'm in BB

I have 10ish K. SB has about 7-8k, Button has 4K

Button pushs. SB folds.

I call in the BB after thinking. Getting about 2 to 1 here (3k to win 6k that is not mine).

Good call or bad call?

He's pushing with any 2.

[playtitleist]

Are his "any two" bigger than your any two? So when you lose with 43o the chip stacks are:

Button 10K
SB 7K
Hero 6K

You want to swap positions with him just cause he could be pushing any two?

[Sykes]

[ QUOTE ]
Are his "any two" bigger than your any two? So when you lose with 43o the chip stacks are:

Button 10K
SB 7K
Hero 6K

You want to swap positions with him just cause he could be pushing any two?

[/ QUOTE ]

How about when I call and win, I have a 2 to 1 lead going to HU?

[pineapple888]

I'm assuming the stack sizes are before posting the blinds.

ICM:

Fold
5800
7000
8800 ==> .357

Call and Win
7000
14600 ==> .435

Call and Lose
8600
7000
6000 ==> .315

.42 downside, .78 upside, need 35% pot odds

34o is 35% against any two.

So it's a tossup, except...

Are you REALLY sure he's pushing 23o? If there's any doubt, you should fold it.

[sofere]

You're getting 2:1 to call where 34o is about a 2:1 dog against most hands and much worse against any PP but 22. This is at best a 0 CEV but -$EV, especially if they were playing tight in any way.

[playtitleist]

You don't win that hand often enough to play it that way. Look for a better spot. Actually, the very next hand you will be the button and can push any two into him! Cuz now his tourney life is on the line.

Folding also has the effect of showing him you won't protect your BB, then when he does it again next orbit, you can bust him with your AA!

[Sykes]

You guys realize that even if I fold, I'm not even a 2 to 1 chip lead against these guys and with the blinds so high (5-8 BB each), I need to take chances.

Also, Even if I fold, he gets to 6k.

Also, I can't push a lot on the button with call with practically any 2 cards (he called my 6k all in with 53s when I pushed with A7 3 hands ago)

So, I think this was the best move.

[pineapple888]

[ QUOTE ]
You guys realize that even if I fold, I'm not even a 2 to 1 chip lead against these guys and with the blinds so high (5-8 BB each), I need to take chances.

Also, Even if I fold, he gets to 6k.

Also, I can't push a lot on the button with call with practically any 2 cards (he called my 6k all in with 53s when I pushed with A7 3 hands ago)

So, I think this was the best move.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're calling an all-in here. ICM is tailor-made for this situation. All that other stuff comes into consideration after this hand.

[playtitleist]

[ QUOTE ]
(he called my 6k all in with 53s when I pushed with A7 3 hands ago)

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think we will convince you otherwise, so this might be just fruitless, but you want him to call you with 53s each orbit.

How about this for a plan? You fold your 43o BBs, and he calls your A7 pushes with his 53s. Make that deal with him.

[Shillx]

Shoving any 2 in his spot is pretty dumb. He should be pushing the top 30% with just over 3bb left. It is a really thin +EV call against any 2, but if you are wrong and he is pushing less then it is a fold. Your calling range here should be really wide, but I would fold this hand fwiw.

[Sykes]

[ QUOTE ]
Shoving any 2 in his spot is pretty dumb. He should be pushing the top 30% with just over 3bb left. It is a really thin +EV call against any 2, but if you are wrong and he is pushing less then it is a fold. Your calling range here should be really wide, but I would fold this hand fwiw.

[/ QUOTE ]

How about when BB will call your button pushes with ANY 2. Still -ev when you can't push hands like 96?

[tigerite]

Sykes, stop it. If you call with 43o here, you're really, really dumb.

[playtitleist]

[ QUOTE ]
Sykes, stop it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you saying we been had? Dammit!

[Sykes]

[ QUOTE ]
Sykes, stop it. If you call with 43o here, you're really, really dumb.

[/ QUOTE ]

Then I'm dumb.

Sorry, I'll fold next time.

[tigerite]

See, thing is even if this is marginally some kind of "estimated" EV here, you're forgetting that the EV of folding is increased, because the SB (button next hand) still remains the short stack, and your FE over the current button will be pretty large, enabling you to still push quite a large range of hands into his BB if/when folded to. Basically, you can find a better spot than this..

[Sykes]

[ QUOTE ]
See, thing is even if this is marginally some kind of "estimated" EV here, you're forgetting that the EV of folding is increased, because the SB (button next hand) still remains the short stack, and your FE over the current button will be pretty large, enabling you to still push quite a large range of hands into his BB if/when folded to. Basically, you can find a better spot than this..

[/ QUOTE ]

Eh, good point.

I figured that calling was best because I couldn't push the next hand because BB would call with any 2 cards.

[Shillx]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
See, thing is even if this is marginally some kind of "estimated" EV here, you're forgetting that the EV of folding is increased, because the SB (button next hand) still remains the short stack, and your FE over the current button will be pretty large, enabling you to still push quite a large range of hands into his BB if/when folded to. Basically, you can find a better spot than this..

[/ QUOTE ]

Eh, good point.

I figured that calling was best because I couldn't push the next hand because BB would call with any 2 cards.

[/ QUOTE ]

I highly suggest looking into ITM push theory. If you fold here, you should be pushing ~80% of your hands on the next deal. Unless you know he is going to call you really wide, you need to be pushing a ton from the SB (and the button too) with the size of these blinds. Even if he told you he was calling 100% of the time next hand, you would still push over 50% of the time.

[tigerite]

I also really doubt he will call with any two cards! He'll still have about 6k left if he folds, and that's a whole lot, I certainly wouldn't call with anything like that much of a range in his shoes.

[Sykes]

[ QUOTE ]
I also really doubt he will call with any two cards! He'll still have about 6k left if he folds, and that's a whole lot, I certainly wouldn't call with anything like that much of a range in his shoes.

[/ QUOTE ]

Tiger, He called my all in when I pushed on the button last hand with 35 (I had 6k, he had 12K), so yes, he's calling with any 2.

Just to prove this point.

After I lost this hand, I pushed with K5s only to get called with 42o, So yes, he was calling with any 2.

[tigerite]

Oh well, he's a fool then! You should love to be pushing into him because that's hugely +$EV for you if he's calling like that, rather than call here which if it's +$EV at all it's like barely and only theoretically at that.