Bad River Push??

im playing 5 handed NL HE on pokerroom.com, .25-.50 blinds
Villain seems like a decent player (doesnt do anything too donkish), pretty solid
I've been raising a ton of pots, reputation as a bit crazy?

Folds to the villain on the button, raises to a dollar.
I smooth call with A8s from SB, BB folds.

Flop comes K-8-3 (rainbow)
Hero checks
Villain bets 1.50
Hero calls

Turn: 8
Hero bets 1.50
Villain calls

River: 2
Hero bets 4.75
Villain raises to 14.75
Hero moves all-in, Villian calls with K8 (eights full)
the raise was like 20 or 30 more i think

my first inclination was to smooth-call the bet, b/c i thought he had to have at least an 8, unless he was on a bluff in which case he wouldn't call a raise anyway.

However, with the Ace kicker, i thought there was too good of a chance he had something like 8-9 or 8-7.
I was concerned about K-K more than anything, but i thought because of my loose image i could move-in and get called by a smaller 8.

What do you guys think?

[beavens]

meh, i'd probably just call the raise.

[bizaff]

I think the turn and river lead are fine, but slow down when he raises. Unless you've seen him way overvalue 1 to trips, he's not 3-betting with much you beat.

His preflop raise with K8 is a bit loose as it's such a garbage hand.

Generally speaking, when you lead the river, you're probably ahead. When he raises, things get muddy. When you 3-bet all-in, you're representing a big hand. Since you say he seems like a decent player, the only way he calls your reraise is if you're beat: KK, 33, 22, K8, 83, 82. Generally, I'd eliminate the last two and guess it's 33 or 22.

yeah he's a decent player, but despite that he's just a low-limit internet player. i wouldnt have pushed if i didnt feel he wouldnt call me with a smaller 8. so, for our purposes, lets assume he'll call with any 8 . . . is a push optimal in that case??

[bizaff]

[ QUOTE ]
yeah he's a decent player, but despite that he's just a low-limit internet player. i wouldnt have pushed if i didnt feel he wouldnt call me with a smaller 8. so, for our purposes, lets assume he'll call with any 8 . . . is a push optimal in that case??

[/ QUOTE ]

GIVEN he'll call you with any 8, it's simple math:

Card-number of combinations

You win:

Q-4
J-4
T-4
9-4
7-4
6-4
5-4
4-4
---
32 combinations

You lose:

K-3
3-3
2-3
---
9 combinations

You're 32:9 to win the pot.

EDIT: even if you want to add in all the boats that beat you:

KK - 3
33 - 3
22 - 3

You're still 32:18 to win.

I think the most important point by far is figuring out whether or not he'll call with ANY 8.

[aces_dad]

Your assumption is not valid. Not all bad kicker 8's call here.

But if it is, you don't need us to tell you there are 10 non-boat 8's (one of which you split with) and 3 boat 8's calling you down, thus if he calls with any 8 it's profitable to push.

Edit: you're also assuming any 8 is raising you on the river. You should assign higher odds to the boat 8's vs poor 8's given the raise on the river.

ok, he prob. wont call me with any 8
but its safe to assume he prob. doesnt have 8-2 through 8-4 or 8-5
so say, he can only have 8-7 through say, 8-Q. if he calls me with those hands, that's still 5*4=20 possibilities, making me 20 to 9 to win. if he only calls with 8-10 through 8-Q, i'm STILL 12-9 to win, although thats a lot closer...