SB push with 53s ... stay with me

[psyduck]

Live tournament, started with 40 people, down to half the field (2 tables). 7 spots pay. I think I have a tight image (although the table as a whole is tight), but I've made a couple of LP and button 3x raises to get the blinds (no showdowns). My friend is at the table, and we've been tossing the term 'pushbot' around.

Blinds are 200/400, I have something like T7,000 (slightly above average) in the SB. BB has T2,000 before posting. BB is also a solid, tight player, who realizes he has to make moves and steals to keep his head above water. I guess he respects me as the same type of player (although I've shown down nothing but premiums from his point).

Folded to me. I have 53s in the SB and push.

Goot?

[Jman28]

I push as fast as they let me.

i realize that doesn't make much sense.

[jcm4ccc]

No goot stealing from a small stack who will be down to 4BBs if he folds this. Especially with the table talk about "pushbots."

don't like it, when BB has a small stack and blinds are high, this is the last player you want to do this against, because he'll feel compelled to call with a lot less since he has a shortstack and knows your range is wide from the SB.. best people to steal from are people with similar stacks to yours.. not small enough so that they have gamble in them, not big enough that they can pick you off without much detriment to their stack.

[ QUOTE ]
don't like it, when BB has a small stack and blinds are high, this is the last player you want to do this against, because he'll feel compelled to call with a lot less since he has a shortstack and knows your range is wide from the SB.. best people to steal from are people with similar stacks to yours.. not small enough so that they have gamble in them, not big enough that they can pick you off without much detriment to their stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

Chapter & verse from HOH. Also, it makes intuitive sense.

[psyduck]

What kind of calling ranges can we assign him such that this push becomes profitable?

(I'm an SNG player by nature, so I'm trying to figure this one out using that approach. I mean, this would be an AUTO-push if we were on the bubble since I have him covered, but I'm unsure if the same applies in this situation. I think I have a lot of fold equity, and even if he calls, I win the hand 2/5 times against two overs.)

[jcm4ccc]

[ QUOTE ]
What kind of calling ranges can we assign him such that this push becomes profitable?

(I'm an SNG player by nature, so I'm trying to figure this one out using that approach. I mean, this would be an AUTO-push if we were on the bubble since I have him covered, but I'm unsure if the same applies in this situation. I think I have a lot of fold equity, and even if he calls, I win the hand 2/5 times against two overs.)

[/ QUOTE ] The difference is that an SnG has a flatter pay-out structure. So sometimes it is correct to fold into 3rd place.

In an MTT, it's rarely correct to fold into the money. Plus, here, we are not even close to the bubble. He will have to double up soon. If he doubles up against you, he has a lot more chips than if he folds this and doubles up later.

if he's a good player he'll probably call with any hand that's better, equal, or a little less in value than a random hand.. he's still throwing away the very worst hands (i'd imagine he's throwing away like bottom 20-30%), other than that if he's a good player as mentioned, he's probably going to look you up like 60-70% of the time.

[Exitonly]

effective stacks are 5bb... i'm pushing anyn two here.

But i'm a retard from the SB i think.

[Exitonly]

[ QUOTE ]
if he's a good player he'll probably call with any hand that's better, equal, or a little less in value than a random hand..

[/ QUOTE ]

unless you've seen the guy do something like this before, i'm not giving a random player credit enough to make good borderline calls. No way do you get looked up here 60/70% of the time. 25%-30% is a lot closer.

Examples of hands in the top 70%: T2s, J2s, 34s 35s 36s etc etc.

Any pair, any ace, and broadway, a few extra random kings/queens. is like 30% of hands, aand i think is what i'd give to this player that we decided is 'good'.

[locutus2002]

Most players overestimate their fold equity.

Villain only needs to be ~40% in the hand, and is in critical chip situation so may make calls with less than 40%.

roughly Villain calls any suited, any ace,king,queen, 1/2 the jacks, tens down to t8, 9 down to 98. roughly 80% of his hands. Hero is only 40% against this range, substantially EV-.

ya I guess you're right, I think it really depends on if the BB knows the situation he's in or not.

[psyduck]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
if he's a good player he'll probably call with any hand that's better, equal, or a little less in value than a random hand..

[/ QUOTE ]

unless you've seen the guy do something like this before, i'm not giving a random player credit enough to make good borderline calls. No way do you get looked up here 60/70% of the time. 25%-30% is a lot closer.

Examples of hands in the top 70%: T2s, J2s, 34s 35s 36s etc etc.

Any pair, any ace, and broadway, a few extra random kings/queens. is like 30% of hands, aand i think is what i'd give to this player that we decided is 'good'.

[/ QUOTE ]

my thoughts exactly. he's not desperate enough to call with freaking ANY TWO, hands like 76s or something. probably something like top 25%-35% - any pair, any ace, most kings and queens, and some jacks and tens.

[psyduck]

[ QUOTE ]
Most players overestimate their fold equity.

Villain only needs to be ~40% in the hand, and is in critical chip situation so may make calls with less than 40%.

roughly Villain calls any suited, any ace,king,queen, 1/2 the jacks, tens down to t8, 9 down to 98. roughly 80% of his hands. Hero is only 40% against this range, substantially EV-.

[/ QUOTE ]


..."any suited, any ace,king,queen, 1/2 the jacks, tens down to t8, 9 down to 98" - this is 80% of all hands? I doubt that, and villian isn't stupid enough to call with all suited trash hands.

I mean, I think this was the best guy to steal from at the table.

[locutus2002]

A player with 4XBB left is the worst player at the table to steal from.

From villain's point of view, Folding 75% of the time is a terrible option when you have 4XBB left and your opponents range is likely j6++, but maybe much wider.

[Roman]

[ QUOTE ]
effective stacks are 5bb... i'm pushing anyn two here.

But i'm a retard from the SB i think.

[/ QUOTE ]

[CieloAzor]

I push all the time here with good results. It's rare for me to see somebody call with less than A-high, a pair, or two broadway cards, and many players are even tighter than that, waiting for a pair or a medium/strong ace. Add in the times when 53s wins the pot and you're well in the black.

I hate folding around to a guy with a stack that small and calling will just entice him to push into you. I think you have to force him to make the call and then win the hand.

[psyduck]

More info that I sorta alluded to in the OP - average is 15x, I have slightly above that, and villain has 5x.

I think it's the PERFECT situation to push because it's so borderline. Villian isn't auto-committed as he would be with 3x or so. With 5x, he could fold here and the SB next hand and still have 3.5x, which he knows still has good fold equity during the next orbit (since people were playing tight and minraises were taking down the pot half the time preflop!)

if he has 3x I fold, 4x is tougher, 5x me likey.

[locutus2002]

Villain has 4XBB left as stated in the problem, the BB is a sunk cost. Villain gets 5XBB:4XBB pot odds and has to be 44% in the hand against hero's range to make the call. Less if you are willing to take an EV- proposition on a micro stack.

What is hero's range for pushing? Judging from the donktastic responses it's any two.

From my point of view your logic is flawed, the more chips villain has the wider range hero should push. However 53s should not be in any pushing range where you can resonably expect villain to call.

[jcm4ccc]

If he folds 37.5% of the time, then your bet is a break-even bet. If he folds more than that, then your bet increases your expected chip count. Otherwise, it's a loser.

Here's the math:

chip counts
Chips if folding: 6800
Chips if pushing and villian folds: 7400
Expected Chip Count if Called: 6440

[53s wins about 36% of the time against a combination of pairs and overcards. So if you push, your expected chip count is 6440: (.36*9000) + (.64 * 5000)]

Fold Equity needed

Solving x for this equation:
6800 = 7400x + 6440*(1-x), where x = fold equity

x = 37.5%

expected chip counts

If villian folds 37.5% of the time:
7400 chips * 37.5% = 2775 chips
6440 chips * 62.5% = 4025 chips
Total: 6800 chips (exact value if you fold this hand instead)


If, instead, the villian folds 50% of his hands:
7400 * .50 = 3700
6440 * .50 = 3220
Total chips = 6920 chips

outcome
Let's say that he does fold 50% of the time. Then your outcome is:

50% of the time you will have 7400 chips
32% of the time you will have 5000 chips
18% of the time you will have 9000 chips

So overall you gain a bit.

[psyduck]

Very nice Jcm.

[locutus2002]

Let's suppose your numbers are correct, which they're not.

Villain has to fold 37% of the hands for hero to break even, or 453 hands out of 1225 possible hands. Villain would have to fold about 98s to make it break even for hero, not reasonable for villain to fold this much.

As villain's calling range incresaes, so does hero chances of winning rise to about 40%.

[CieloAzor]

I think Villain folds way more than half the time from personal experience.

I'd fold a little more the half the time myself, and I believe my calling range to be looser than most of my opponents.

[Exitonly]

heres a quick list of hands that will definitely not reguarly call a push:
J2s,T6s-T2s,97s-92s,82s+,72s+,62s+,52s+,42s+,32s,Q3o-Q2o,J4o-J2o,T7o-T2o,97o-92o,82o+,72o+,62o+,52o+,42o+,32o


that's 44.4% right there. And i just stopped thinking about it after i saw it was > 35%.


Also, i think JCM's numbers were pretty close.