AA against LAG

[Entity]

Villain is a fairly LAGGY but seemingly winning regular at these games (NONER). Those who play at Absolute know what I mean. I play with him a ton so we definitely have history.

6-handed. UTG raises. Next to act folds. Bad LAG 3-bets next to act. I coldcap AA OTB. Noner calls 3.67 in the SB. BB folds. UTG and LAG both call. I table select good, and there are 4 of us to the flop for 17SB.

THe flop is 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gifQ/images/graemlins/spade.gif3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. I have the A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. Noner checks. UTG checks. LAG checks. I bet. Noner checkraises. UTG folds. LAG folds. I call.

The turn is the 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif. Noner bets. I raise. Noner 3-bets. Plan for rest of the hand? (Cap, call down, call/raise river...)

Also, any comments on flop play? Had I held black Aces I probably would have played it faster.

Rob

A turn cap is too much. Just call down, planning to raise an A, 2 or 3 on the river.

[spydog]

You capped preflop and took a pretty standard smooth-call the flop/raise the turn line which normally indicates a lot of strength. Everything you are communicating to him says that you have QQ/KK/AA and he still 3-bets you on the turn. Things aren't looking good. I just call down and hope to spike an Ace.

[Lmn55d]

same

[spydog]

[ QUOTE ]
A turn cap is too much. Just call down, planning to raise an A, 2 or 3 on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you are planning or raising any 2 or 3 on the river then why not raise any card on the river? Do you really put him on 2-pair on the turn?

[mscags]

Why no cap preflop? If these guys are as bad as you claim then they will probably still pay you off either way right?

[Lmn55d]

my boy coldcapped

[TStoneMBD]

id just call the turn and call river. i wouldnt put in a raise there but since you did i think you can fold to the 3 bet. btw i know who noner is etc.

[spydog]

[ QUOTE ]
id just call the turn and call river. i wouldnt put in a raise there but since you did i think you can fold to the 3 bet. btw i know who noner is etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

This seems a little soft to me. You are putting him on QQ/22/33 after a flop checkraise? I think if you are going to fold to a turn 3-bet then you should 3-bet the flop and call down any further aggression. Or, call the flop CR, call the turn, and raise a scary river card (like a 3rd flush card).

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
id just call the turn and call river. i wouldnt put in a raise there but since you did i think you can fold to the 3 bet. btw i know who noner is etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

TS,

Don't you think that by the time he bet the turn, noner could have KK or AQ as well as QQ.

QQ - 3 combos
KK - 6 combos
AQ - 6 bomose

Rob is therefore a 4:1 favorite.
Raising the turn is essentially a win 1 extra vs lose 2 extra proposition, so doesn't he have odds to raise?

[Lmn55d]

that range is way too narrow. There's 88, 99, 44, KQs etc. Most LAGs would have no qualms calling 3.5 in a big pot with those hands

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
A turn cap is too much. Just call down, planning to raise an A, 2 or 3 on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you are planning or raising any 2 or 3 on the river then why not raise any card on the river? Do you really put him on 2-pair on the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]
Q9 and sets are the most likely holdings that beat us. We win against anything else. Given his turn action, we're behind often on the turn, but what sets could he have that he didn't 3-bet preflop? Rule out queens and possibly nines. That leaves 2s or 3s. Either one of those pairing on the river will reduce the liklihood of him having a set and makes a river raise against his other holdings more profitable.

EDIT: I didn't see that NONER called a cold-cap PF. I thought he called 2 bets. Given that, we can't rule out 999 or QQQ. The river raise is much closer now, but I still feel Q9s is a good part of his range that we're behind.

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
that range is way too narrow. There's 88, 99, 44, KQs etc. Most LAGs would have no qualms calling 3.5 in a big pot with those hands

[/ QUOTE ]

You think he could still have all those hands after the point where he bets the turn? I could see KQ and 99 at that point, and any other set hands. But you really think 88 and 99?

[TStoneMBD]

ive played with noner. after he calls 4 semicold and checkraises this flop i put him on AA, KK or QQ.

i doubt he calls 4 with AQ but its possible. i also think if he called 4 with a weaker pair then QQ and checkraises this flop that he should fold to the turn raise.

even if you assume that sometimes hell have AQ or JJ type of hands and calls down, you have to realize that by raising the turn you need to be ahead >66.6% of the time for raising to be correct if you arent folding to a 3bet.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
id just call the turn and call river. i wouldnt put in a raise there but since you did i think you can fold to the 3 bet. btw i know who noner is etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

Unless NONER plays soft against you, that's a pretty soft way to play against him. In about 3k hands with him he's around 40/25/2 sorted for 5-6 handed.

[oreogod]

if he has a set its 99. there is no reason to c/r other wise, if he had a set he's either leading the flop or c/c.

Dude is a lag, I havent played w/ Noner, I will be soon though, so it should be fun...but it looks like KQs or AQ to me. Maybe KK. You never said if hes the type to keep the foot on the pedal or not, so he might or might not be the type that backs off, if hes not he can have a pretty good range here. I think we need more info.

[TStoneMBD]

oh really hes 40/25/2 in your databases? when i first started playing with him he was too loose preflop and somewhat maniacal, but since playing alot with him lately hes been playing good poker but doesnt extract value on hands enough. the decision of how to play this hand really depends on hand range so its pretty much impossible to answer. you havent played 3k hands with noner have you? i assumed thats part of a shared database?

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
oh really hes 40/25/2 in your databases? when i first started playing with him he was too loose preflop and somewhat maniacal, but since playing alot with him lately hes been playing good poker but doesnt extract value on hands enough. the decision of how to play this hand really depends on hand range so its pretty much impossible to answer. you havent played 3k hands with noner have you? i assumed thats part of a shared database?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I don't have a shared DB. I've played with NONER probably close to 4k hands overall. He's almost always at the tables when I am. He's been playing more reasonably recently but he's still got a penchant for going 4 bets on the flop with any draw and often most top pairish hands.

Rob

[oreogod]

Am I the only one that keeps going on the turn? /images/graemlins/frown.gif

Entity, would he ever check-raise a set on this flop, in your opinion? If he doesnt, imo, hes going nutso w/ pair+draw which leaves 1 or 2 obvious hands (most likely hands anyway). or maybe just top pair or KK, who knows. Either that or the most unlikely-est hand of all. (this might be way to specfic for this Lag player, but Im working off what Im hearing/seeing)

Unless my opponent's a station / resilient I usually just three-bet the flop when I have position to put some doubt in them. I'd hate to see the poor guy fold to your turn raise.

[wackjob]

I think I would go almost always for a 3-bet on the flop vs. a LAG. I don't think he is going to fold here, but there is the possibility that you will not get to raise the turn. I have found a lot of LAG's lately who will go crazy on the flop only to check the turn and call down once they realize you are not folding and I end up kicking myself for not getting at least an extra SB on the flop.

[DeathDonkey]

I like flop play. I cap the turn and think about raising a blank river. No way does he play QQ this way. He checkraised the flop! You have him beat sooo often here.

-DeathDonkey

[oreogod]

[ QUOTE ]
I like flop play. I cap the turn and think about raising a blank river. No way does he play QQ this way. He checkraised the flop! You have him beat sooo often here.

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

You play good.

[cartman]

I like 3-betting the flop, especially if he is prone to going nuts with a draw or top pair, but calling and raising the turn is fine too and may even be better. Once he 3-bets you on the turn I think you are rarely in front, so you should just call him down. Faced with 3 cold preflop you capped it and he has to know that means business. He calls damn near 4 cold in the SB then checkraises you on the flop and doesn't bat an eye when you raise him on the turn. I would be really surprised if he doesn't have the other two Aces or a set. The fact that you have the Ace of diamonds removes the possibility that he has the nut flush draw while also reducing the probability of a pair + flush draw hand. I can conceive of him holding KdQd or QdJd, but I don't think he has them often enough to merit any further aggression on your part.

Cartman

[einbert]

[ QUOTE ]
I like flop play. I cap the turn and think about raising a blank river. No way does he play QQ this way. He checkraised the flop! You have him beat sooo often here.

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know the lag in question but against a person described as "winning" this is absolutely insane.

When he threebets the turn the only possible hand we can beat is KK, and after we capped preflop and slowplayed this flop in order to raise the turn he has to put us on KK-AA, with the possibility of AQ. His range can't possibly be wider than KK-AA, QQ, 99. Besides it doesn't make sense for him to play KK this hard if he has any clue of handreading (it would make more sense for him to play it fast on a board with no Q, but with a Q on board he is beaten by any hands that might give him so much action, ie QQ, AA both beat him, JJ will give him no action.

[DeathDonkey]

[ QUOTE ]
he has to put us on KK-AA, with the possibility of AQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

I totally disagree with this. If it were that easy my turn semibluff raises would actually work from time to time.

[ QUOTE ]
His range can't possibly be wider than KK-AA, QQ, 99

[/ QUOTE ]

Even if this is his range we are even money to have him beat!

-DeathDonkey

[einbert]

KK has to be discounted. Entity said he is a winning player, he has to have SOME hand-reading ability. He saw entity, a tight player, coldcap and then slowplay this flop in order to raise the turn. If he has KK he is easily giving too much action by threebetting.

Besides that, even if we are 50% to win capping doesn't make any sense at all. He is going to checkraise the river when he has us beat and just call down when we have him beat. There is simply no way that capping can be better than calling down here unless we give him a very wide range of hands, which if he has a very wide range of hands here I think it's hard to see how he can be a winning player. This is a pretty basic handreading spot for him and I don't see how he can put entity on anything less than KK.

[einbert]

[ QUOTE ]
A turn cap is too much. Just call down, planning to raise an A, 2 or 3 on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

A 2 or 3 doesn't change anything here.

[kiddo]

[ QUOTE ]
the decision of how to play this hand really depends on hand range so its pretty much impossible to answer

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep, but how often he attacks and bluffs is also a part of it.

If he is prepared to fold AQ or KQ if we raise turn we should 3bet flop.

If he is prepared to checkraise a lot on this flop with medium pairs and semibluffs as AK we should think about calling down.

[Danenania]

[ QUOTE ]
I like flop play. I cap the turn and think about raising a blank river. No way does he play QQ this way. He checkraised the flop! You have him beat sooo often here.

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

Agree. A winning player didn't call PF with Q9, and no one on earth checkraises that flop with a set. He either has 99 or we're splitting or we have him beat. Having him beat is mathematically most likely by far.

Edit: that said if some people think based on firsthand experience with him that he won't ever 3-bet that turn with KK/AQ/KQs then sure just call down. But the op says he's laggy and it's not past a laggy player to 3-bet any of those imo.

[oreogod]

[ QUOTE ]


Besides that, even if we are 50% to win capping doesn't make any sense at all. He is going to checkraise the river when he has us beat and just call down when we have him beat. There is simply no way that capping can be better than calling down here unless we give him a very wide range of hands, which if he has a very wide range of hands here I think it's hard to see how he can be a winning player. This is a pretty basic handreading spot for him and I don't see how he can put entity on anything less than KK.

[/ QUOTE ]

IMO, I think we are better than 50 percent here. Entity never answered if Villian is retarded enough to play sets like this, if he's not, which is most likely we are either splitting or ahead here a lot. I also think a lag could do this w/ K/images/graemlins/diamond.gifQ/images/graemlins/diamond.gif