Q9s on button

[curtains]

***** Hand History for Game 3196845140 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $200 Buy-in + $15 Entry Fee Trny:18256742 Level:5 Blinds(75/150) - Tuesday, December 13, 21:56:02 EDT 2005
Table Table 67033 (Real Money)
Seat 8 is the button
Total number of players : 5
Seat 2: jlidtb6 ( $1705 )
Seat 3: AKR23 ( $2205 )
Seat 4: StiffStuff ( $510 )
Seat 6: pishka ( $2875 )
Seat 8: ILuvCurtains ( $2705 )
Trny:18256742 Level:5
Blinds(75/150)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to ILuvCurtains [ Qd 9d ]
StiffStuff folds.
pishka folds.
Your turn:



Yes the hand is boring, but I think that knowing exactly what to do in the most boring situations that come up all the time, is one of the most important qualities. I'm surprised by what I did here, and am quite sure it's incorrect.

[Elektrik]

I'm fine with either folding or making it 400 or so; I probably just fold.

I don't think the EV between the plays is that huge either, unless the blinds are known to be aggressive in which case I'm just folding. Or if the blinds are known to be weak tight I'm much more inclined to raise.

[TheUsher]

Raise it to 350 and play some poker if called. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[tigerite]

Raise to t400 or so.

[curtains]

You aren't on IM, I was looking for you.

[curtains]

Yeah it is pretty boring, I just want to know exactly what to do. Against the following call ranges (that are wayyy too loose IMO, 55+,ATo+,A8s+,KQs, pushing is almost breakeven). If they get to the following range (66+,ATs+,AJo+), which is Still tighter than some may be, it becomes +.2%.

In any case I feel that the evidence suggests that it's appropriate to make some kind of raise, and that raising to 400 or so is the right play. Whenever simply opening allin has such a good chance of being +EV, it pains me to simply fold my hand.

In any matter, I don't believe it's of the utmost importance to not fold here. It's hard to prove mathematically because its not just some push/fold situation, but I suspect that it's correct to raise something. Can anyone prove me wrong?

[bennies]

Sssh! You said the p word...

To OP, play it like it's aces. I'm sure you have some standard raise, go ahead with 380 or something else that probably needs typing.

I might fold this against maniac/tilting opponents who don't know that you know they are maniac/tilting...

[tigerite]

I think a raise is in order, but a fold probably isn't terribly losing a whole lot of $EV. It just seems very weak to me. If the SB was the BB (and vice versa) then I might find a fold as he would have just the kind of stack where he can play back at you more - 10-11bb, but as it is, I find it quite unlikely he will do that with the BB to go through as well, without a really good hand.

[Dr_Jeckyl_00]

[ QUOTE ]
***** Hand History for Game 3196845140 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $200 Buy-in + $15 Entry Fee Trny:18256742 Level:5 Blinds(75/150) - Tuesday, December 13, 21:56:02 EDT 2005
Table Table 67033 (Real Money)
Seat 8 is the button
Total number of players : 5
Seat 2: jlidtb6 ( $1705 )
Seat 3: AKR23 ( $2205 )
Seat 4: StiffStuff ( $510 )
Seat 6: pishka ( $2875 )
Seat 8: ILuvCurtains ( $2705 )
Trny:18256742 Level:5
Blinds(75/150)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to ILuvCurtains [ Qd 9d ]
StiffStuff folds.
pishka folds.
Your turn:



Yes the hand is boring, but I think that knowing exactly what to do in the most boring situations that come up all the time, is one of the most important qualities. I'm surprised by what I did here, and am quite sure it's incorrect.

[/ QUOTE ]

I fold. You're in great shape chip wise. This is barely a push from SB per KS, so from button it has to be a fold. You don't need to risk your stack with this less than mediocre hand. If either blind doubles up from you you're in serous trouble, not worth the risk... be patient and fold, IMO.

BTW, I don't like a standard raise all that much b/c occassionally one of the blinds moves all-in, then you just donated a good chunk of your stack.

This is dependant on your read of villians and table image.

If you have a tight image and don't believe villians will play back at you, then I'd make a standard 2.5xBB raise and try and take down the blinds, and have a hand with at least some potential if I get called.

I probably mix it with 50% fold, 50% raise to t400.

I raise to 400 or so. Whatever the least amount my opponents will respect as a real raise. Its an easy fold to an all-in and there's some room to play a flop in position. I think an all-in is worse than you give it credit for. There's just no real reason to do it.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

I can't see folding here unless I've been moving a lot of chips for the past couple of orbits. Looks like making it 400-500 to go is about right.

[kamrann]

I think the flow of the game up to this point is the most important thing here. In general I would say very little in it between fold/raise, I'd lean towards raise. However, it's not a bad spot for either of the blinds to try to resteal, given they know that you would be crippled by their stacks if you lost an allin. You're raising on the button, which as always increases the chances of your being played back at. So I think you just have to judge it by your reads on the players in the blinds, how aggro you have been up to this point, and if you think either of them are capable of restealing.

I don't think you need to worry about being called, sure it will happen, but not too often and you have a playable hand in position.

[Roman]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the flow of the game up to this point is the most important thing here. In general I would say very little in it between fold/raise, I'd lean towards raise. However, it's not a bad spot for either of the blinds to try to resteal, given they know that you would be crippled by their stacks if you lost an allin. You're raising on the button, which as always increases the chances of your being played back at. So I think you just have to judge it by your reads on the players in the blinds, how aggro you have been up to this point, and if you think either of them are capable of restealing.

I don't think you need to worry about being called, sure it will happen, but not too often and you have a playable hand in position.

[/ QUOTE ]


I fold this 66% prolly depending on flow

[bigt439]

I would almost never fold this.

375 or 400 will work. Unless your opponents have been restealing like crazy I think this is big time +EV, not just marginally as others have suggested.

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah it is pretty boring, I just want to know exactly what to do. Against the following call ranges (that are wayyy too loose IMO, 55+,ATo+,A8s+,KQs, pushing is almost breakeven). If they get to the following range (66+,ATs+,AJo+), which is Still tighter than some may be, it becomes +.2%.

In any case I feel that the evidence suggests that it's appropriate to make some kind of raise, and that raising to 400 or so is the right play. Whenever simply opening allin has such a good chance of being +EV, it pains me to simply fold my hand.

In any matter, I don't believe it's of the utmost importance to not fold here. It's hard to prove mathematically because its not just some push/fold situation, but I suspect that it's correct to raise something. Can anyone prove me wrong?



[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know if I can prove you wrong, but I see a potential flaw in the logic "if there's a good chance pushing would be +EV, folding can't be right."

The difference between pushing and raising when you know you'll have to fold to a re-raise is quite large.

All of the math behind the value of pushing incorporates the expectation you gain from sometimes being ahead, and sometimes winning even when you are behind. Obviously you lose all of this when you fold after VPIP.

If your opponents would only re-raise you with hands that beat you, the argument for making a raise would be stronger. But there are probably at least a few hands your opponent could hold which would fold to a push, but push against a small raise by you. (TJs comes to mind, or maybe a very small pair.)

You also have the problem of seeing a flop and being made to fold a better hand, or being trapped by a better hand that wouldn't have extracted all of your chips with a different preflop action.

In other words, by making a small raise you introduce into the EV equation a lot of possibilities that don't exist when you push. You become much more likely to lose a "small" amount, but still susceptible to losing everything. You are also allowing your opponents an opportunity to outplay you... even if they do it by accident.

So, I think that in order for a raise to be correct here, your opponents would have to be very unlikely to push with a worse hand, very unlikely to stop-n-go you, very unlikely to bluff at the pot after the flop, and willing to fold often to a small preflop raise. These circumstances sometimes exist, and I would sometimes raise with this hand here.

But, I think folding preflop would be more correct than raising more often than not. If I'm wrong about this, I don't think it's because of anything that push/fold ICM calculations can prove.

Irieguy

[Roman]

yup, thanks for saying what I was way too lazy to type out.

[curtains]

Well my point when I say that "folding" can't be right because pushing seems +EV, implies that pushing is superior to folding. However as much as I love to grab the +.2% or +.3% situatons, this is a spot where my large stack can seriously allow me to expect greater +EV spots in the future. This combined with the fact that I don't know just how tight they are going to be, makes this a spot where I'm willing to not just move allin for 225 chips. It MAY be very slightly +EV against the right opponents to just push, but it's really pushing it in this spot.

My next logical thoguht was to figure out a reason for why making a normal raise would be appropriate. I'm sure its ok and I would definitely do so against some opponents, but it's probably a situation where you can just go either way depending on your feel of the opponents.

[tigerite]

For sure, if the BB is quite loose, and quite aggressive on the flop or unlikely to fold bottom pair type, then I'm folding here. But against a thinking, good player, who won't push pf with ~15bb or stop and go on a flop containing ~6bb for ~12bb (and especially with hands like JTs).. which I think is a lot (I certainly wouldn't do it) then the raise is absolutely fine and the right play.

But no, this isn't a carte blanche to raise every time or something. I certainly wouldn't and it is read-dependent. But so are many, many moves I make.. as it should be.