Getting and Losing with AA 3x in a row

[jstbuch]

I have AA 3x in a row on absolute poker and lost all three times. Can someone help me to figure out the odds of that.

How many people dealt

[mittman84]

nothing of any significance, hell i am 0-5 to start this session with KK and AA. I seem to remember threads where people have gone 10-15 straight hands with AA losing them all

He doesnt mean losing with it three times in a row, thats easy (about 0.6^3 = 21.6%)

He means being dealt AA in three consecutive hands, and losing all three. That is more interesting.

*if he does mean just losing with it three times in a row....expect that to happen.

[mittman84]

if that is the case (and it really happened) than yes that is very significant. I have played many many hands and only recieved AA on back to back hands on the same table twice.

[ohnonotthat]

The chance of this occuring in a cardroom is 50-50; it either happens or it doesn't.

It's bound to happen more often online since everyone knows internet poker is fixed.

*

I am now going fix myself a drink.

Does anyone know whether it's OK to drink Scotch through a straw ? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

If there are five players in the pot and one of them has AA, normally he is about a 40% favourite to have the best hand at the river.

So, if the opponents call at least as they have a chance to beat AA the probability to loose three times in a row with AA is about 20%.

So, you lost with AA three times in a row. Will you fold that hand the next time?

Btw, I think it does not make much sense to ask for the probability of an event once it has happened. Every combination of hands that is dealt on a ten player table has a very low probability before the cards are dealt. I don't understand why people are asking all these questions like: "How likely is it to get a straigt, a flush, trips, two pair, and a straight in a row?" What will they do with the answer?

[mostsmooth]

[ QUOTE ]
I have AA 3x in a row on absolute poker and lost all three times. Can someone help me to figure out the odds of that.

[/ QUOTE ]
100% probability

[jstbuch]

I am not planning on doing anything with the math... I am simply interested in the math for the sake of being interested in the math. I don't think there is anything wrong with that.

I was given AA 3x in a row and lost all 3x. I was just curious as to the propability of that happening.

[KenProspero]

Odds of AA on one hand -- 1 in 221.
Odds of AA in three consecutive hands 1 in 221^3 = 1 in 10,793,861. If we estimate your chances of losing all three at 20%, you get 1 in 53,969,305.

mother of God, where did you get that avatar?

[tomdemaine]

[ QUOTE ]
Odds of AA on one hand -- 1 in 221.
Odds of AA in three consecutive hands 1 in 221^3 = 1 in 10,793,861. If we estimate your chances of losing all three at 20%, you get 1 in 53,969,305.

[/ QUOTE ]

So what are the chances of it happening considering Absolute poker has dealt 247093544 hands to this point?

[jstbuch]

thanks for the help...

[ohnonotthat]

[ QUOTE ]


Btw, I think it does not make much sense to ask for the probability of an event once it has happened. Every combination of hands that is dealt on a ten player table has a very low probability before the cards are dealt. I don't understand why people are asking all these questions like: "How likely is it to get a straigt, a flush, trips, two pair, and a straight in a row?" What will they do with the answer?

[/ QUOTE ]

What will they do with the answer ?



Obviously they'll use it as "proof" that the game is rigged. /images/graemlins/confused.gif /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[ohnonotthat]

1 - [ (53,969,304 / 53,969,305) to the nth ] where n = 247,093,544