AQ

[jason_t]

Assume your typical Party Poker small stakes game. One typical player limps in and you raise A/images/graemlins/club.gif Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif behind him. There are some cold callers but I won't specify how many. Maybe some of the blinds come along too.

Flop: Q/images/graemlins/club.gif J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif
L1 donks, you raise, there is a cold caller behind, everyone else drops out and L1 calls.

Turn: 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif
L1 donks again

What's your plan? Your decision is affected by the size of the pot (which is controlled by the number of preflop cold callers) so your plan should be centred around that. The pot is minimum 7.75 BB minus rake.

[BlackjackAJ]

You have to raise here, stats would help greatly however.

[Scotch78]

I think you're ahead often enough to protect your hand, but not often enough to call a 3-bet.

Scott

[DeathDonkey]

I'm on to you! You're trying to trick us into doing math.

-DeathDonkey

[WillMagic]

I think the turn donk represents significant weakness. If he had T9, he would have been inclined to check-raise. His donk makes me think his range is going to be heavily weighted towards hands like QT/JT/KQ/KJ. The coldcaller isn't beating us unless he is holding T9, and he'll let us know by three-betting the turn with that hand. The rest of his range is comprised of hands that are behind us but that have outs, and we'd do well to make him face two bets cold.

So my plan is to raise. If the cold-caller three-bets, I'm folding. If L1 three-bets...then we have problems...and it's close between folding and calling down, but I think I fold.

Even though getting three-bet is ugly, the pot is big enough and our hand vulnerable enough that it has to be right to raise.

Will

[newhizzle]

ok, well im definately raising

the size of the pot dosent really come into play for that descison unless were just trying to charge a gutshot or some other weak draw or something, a hand like KT will pretty much always be correct to call, so i think the situation where we have to consider the pot is what we plan to do if we get 3-bet.

well what hands is this villain 3-betting?

a sraight, which we are drawing dead against, a set which we are drawing dead against, 2 pair which we have anywhere from 3 to 8 outs against, or something that we beat such as KQ or maybe even a recklessly played KT

im not really sure how to weight these different holdings as a typical small stakes party donkey will be limping in with a lot of hands and playing them strangely at times, but we can at least count the combos of his likely holdings and try to come up with an answer from that

now your typical 2/4 player is probably not capable of playing KT like this, so ill leave that out, hes also probably not playing a hand like 82, and hed most likely raise preflop with QQ or JJ, so lets say his possible holdings for 3-betting are QJ, Q8, J8, 22, 88, and 9T, thers also the unlikely possiblity of a pure bluff or KQ, but i think its safe to assume that if we get 3-bet, we are behind.

so how many limpers did we need to start with for it to be correct to call a 3-bet?

well there are 9 combos of QJ and 9 combos of Q8, both of which, we have 3 outs against

there are 9 combos of J8 which we have 8 outs against

there are 3 combos of 22, 3 combos of 88, and 16 combos of 9T which we are drawing dead against.

so we are drawing dead against 22 hands, drawing to 3 outs against 18 hands and drawing to 8 outs against 9 hands

now i have no idea if im doing this right, but 3X18=54 +8X9=72 +22X0=0 =126/33= 3.8 outs on average that we are drawing to

in order for it to be profitable to see a river if we get 3-bet the pot needs to be offering us ~11 to 1

at the minimum pot size of 7.75 BB after we get 3-bet we are getting 11.75 to 1 to call, so we are pretty much always going to want to see the river(also i would probably pay off a river bet getting these odds too) so maybe i went the wrong way with this

well ok, lets see what draws would be correct to cold/call your raise depending on how many people were in the pot to start with, KT, with 8 outs, he needs to be getting 4.75 to one from the pot, after you raise, you are offering the cold/caller 9.75 to 2 or 4.875 to 1, so with KT he will always be correct to draw

how about a gutshot, such as T7, with 4 outs, he needs 10.5 to 1, so at the minimum pot size for this problem, he would be incorrect to draw, each player we add in the begining will add 1 BB to the pot(except for the blinds which will be .75 and .5 BBs) so how many cold/callers do we need to start with for his call to be correct(ignoring implied odds and the possiblity of a 3-bet)

well he needs to be getting 21 to 2 from your raise, so right now theres 9.75 BB in the pot and it would be impossible to get it up to 21 by adding more callers preflop, so he will always be wrong to call

ok, im pretty much just doing this as i go along and dont know if im doing it all right or anything, but i think this is a raise, and i cant really figure out how the size of the pot will affect any of your options so whatever

[MEbenhoe]

are we assuming no read on L1?

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
are we assuming no read on L1?

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Assume your typical Party Poker small stakes game. One typical player limps

[/ QUOTE ]

[MEbenhoe]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
are we assuming no read on L1?

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Assume your typical Party Poker small stakes game. One typical player limps

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

its late and i suck at reading....
thats my story and i'm sticking to it.

[pokerjunky]

[ QUOTE ]
ok, well im definately raising

the size of the pot dosent really come into play for that descison unless were just trying to charge a gutshot or some other weak draw or something, a hand like KT will pretty much always be correct to call, so i think the situation where we have to consider the pot is what we plan to do if we get 3-bet.

well what hands is this villain 3-betting?

a sraight, which we are drawing dead against, a set which we are drawing dead against, 2 pair which we have anywhere from 3 to 8 outs against, or something that we beat such as KQ or maybe even a recklessly played KT

im not really sure how to weight these different holdings as a typical small stakes party donkey will be limping in with a lot of hands and playing them strangely at times, but we can at least count the combos of his likely holdings and try to come up with an answer from that

now your typical 2/4 player is probably not capable of playing KT like this, so ill leave that out, hes also probably not playing a hand like 82, and hed most likely raise preflop with QQ or JJ, so lets say his possible holdings for 3-betting are QJ, Q8, J8, 22, 88, and 9T, thers also the unlikely possiblity of a pure bluff or KQ, but i think its safe to assume that if we get 3-bet, we are behind.

so how many limpers did we need to start with for it to be correct to call a 3-bet?

well there are 9 combos of QJ and 9 combos of Q8, both of which, we have 3 outs against

there are 9 combos of J8 which we have 8 outs against

there are 3 combos of 22, 3 combos of 88, and 16 combos of 9T which we are drawing dead against.

so we are drawing dead against 22 hands, drawing to 3 outs against 18 hands and drawing to 8 outs against 9 hands

now i have no idea if im doing this right, but 3X18=54 +8X9=72 +22X0=0 =126/33= 3.8 outs on average that we are drawing to

in order for it to be profitable to see a river if we get 3-bet the pot needs to be offering us ~11 to 1

at the minimum pot size of 7.75 BB after we get 3-bet we are getting 11.75 to 1 to call, so we are pretty much always going to want to see the river(also i would probably pay off a river bet getting these odds too) so maybe i went the wrong way with this

well ok, lets see what draws would be correct to cold/call your raise depending on how many people were in the pot to start with, KT, with 8 outs, he needs to be getting 4.75 to one from the pot, after you raise, you are offering the cold/caller 9.75 to 2 or 4.875 to 1, so with KT he will always be correct to draw

how about a gutshot, such as T7, with 4 outs, he needs 10.5 to 1, so at the minimum pot size for this problem, he would be incorrect to draw, each player we add in the begining will add 1 BB to the pot(except for the blinds which will be .75 and .5 BBs) so how many cold/callers do we need to start with for his call to be correct(ignoring implied odds and the possiblity of a 3-bet)

well he needs to be getting 21 to 2 from your raise, so right now theres 9.75 BB in the pot and it would be impossible to get it up to 21 by adding more callers preflop, so he will always be wrong to call

ok, im pretty much just doing this as i go along and dont know if im doing it all right or anything, but i think this is a raise, and i cant really figure out how the size of the pot will affect any of your options so whatever

[/ QUOTE ]

Now if I could just figure out how to run calculations like this before my hand is folded.... /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[jason_t]

I think that this might be a spot where as the pot becomes larger it becomes more correct to just call.

[goofball]

Raise again. This donk-donk line has become more and more popular with hands we beat like top pair or second pair.

[ReptileHouse]

[ QUOTE ]
I think that this might be a spot where as the pot becomes larger it becomes more correct to just call.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's an interesting statement. Going to noodle a bit here about why that might be the case.

We'd like to protect our hand, so let's look at that a bit. we have a pretty large pot and one cold-caller after us on the flop. Highly likely he's on a draw of some sort. A set of twos is possible, but not too likely. Even with a raise, we're still giving the right odds for an OESD to call, so we're not folding that out. Most other hands that cold-call that flop have between 2 and 5 outs against us. We can protect against those hands unless the pot is truly monstrous.

This pot is large enough that our play should be dictated by doing whatever we can to enhance the likelihood that we win the pot.

So our next question is why we're being donked into here. Is this a value bet from a now-better hand? If so, we'll get 3-bet here and be told so in pretty clear terms. Add in the fact that T9 would very likely would c/r here, not bet, and I think we can't go into call-down mode based on that just yet. So if not just for value, why is he donking? What does he expect us to do? We raised the flop, so he has to expect a turn raise to not be out of the question. I think he's wanting to use your raise to get this heads up.

Another reason to just call is to enhance our total value. If we call here and assume both opponents call on the turn (and we have the best hand), we make four bets (two bets each). If we raise and fold out the cold caller, it's not unreasonable to assume that the river will go check/call (check raise or another donk probably mean we're beat), so we're only making three bets. The question is whether the additional bet from the overcall is worth the risk of that 3rd player outdrawing us. I don't think it is. Our hand is too vulnerable for that kind of play.

I don't see it. I raise to protect my hand and fold to a 3-bet from either opponent. This pot is large enough I want to do whatever I can to enhance my chances of winning it.

[oxymoron]

[ QUOTE ]
I think that this might be a spot where as the pot becomes larger it becomes more correct to just call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I had a hand like this last night. I raise preflop, person donks into me on the flop; I raise. Donk again on the turn; I raise and am thinking WTF? River I finally just call and MHIG. I'll have to post the hand. The donking me twice line really confused me but it led me to believe he didn't have anything.

[Stealthy]

Easy raise for me. Getting donked twice in a row at $2 $4 happens 50 times a session and my TPTK is going nowhere. With the LP player still in I want to raise here, drive him out, and perhaps get a free showdown if he does not donk again. You say he is a "typical" $2 $4 player but such an animal does not exist. LAGs make this move all the time and I have seen many a decnt stat player do this with no hand and no draw. True that usually they have something but it is often not much. I am not folding to a 3 bet either as he could have just queens with a worse kicker or a ropey 2 pair that I have a good few outs against.

The only time I could even consider dropping here is if the LP guy 3 bets it, then I am worried.

Edited to say that without the LP player in I can just call this down. No need to push a bluffer or middle pair bettor out and we can get to showdown for 2 more BBs.

Cold caller called the flop getting ~5:1, what's he now going to fold in the face of a raise that you aren't already crushing?

As villian (L1), ^^this^^, plus this thread, is the reason why I donk T9 on the turn.

But I think the opposite of Jason. I think as the pot gets bigger, you should be more willing to raise.

It means that cold caller is more likley to have called the flop with a marginal drawing hand and the benefit/value of folding his 3-5 outer is increased. It also means that L1 is more likely making a play/semibluffing at the pot.

I call in the smaller pot, raise in a big one.

[gopnik]

[ QUOTE ]
I think that this might be a spot where as the pot becomes larger it becomes more correct to just call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would really hate myself if I gave odds to the gutshot behind me and he hit. That would be BAD POKER.

I raise.

[ QUOTE ]
I think that this might be a spot where as the pot becomes larger it becomes more correct to just call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd love to hear more about Jason's thoughts on this. I'm not convinced, but I'm also just an average player.

[ErrantNight]

i'm just calling most of the time. i'd like to see a non 9,T river.

if there were an astronomical number of limpers and the pot was insanely huge on the flop i might not raise said flop and instead plan to raise the turn (or bet if checked to) as my flop raise may not accomplish anything.

I think I'd call down here. I can't imagine he's on auto-donk without something. At the same time, typical players on Party aren't always aggressive or smart enough to raise to protect their hands. They just seem to bet and call a raise.

I wouldn't be surprised if he has QJ.

[ QUOTE ]
I think that this might be a spot where as the pot becomes larger it becomes more correct to just call.

[/ QUOTE ]

hmm. In a big pot, getting three bet becomes expensive. We have to see the river because of pot odds and we might even make a crying call on the river (because the pot is so big). If the pot were smaller, we could raise/fold to a three bet.

close??

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think that this might be a spot where as the pot becomes larger it becomes more correct to just call.

[/ QUOTE ]

hmm. In a big pot, getting three bet becomes expensive. We have to see the river because of pot odds and we might even make a crying call on the river (because the pot is so big). If the pot were smaller, we could raise/fold to a three bet.

close??

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes; this is part of it. I'll find time to post later.

[DMBFan23]

quite the conundrum we have going here. the more players behind us, the more we need to protect our hand but the more strength his bet means. but, the fewer players we have behind us, the less strength his turn bet means so we want to raise for value but maybe wait.

[JacksonTens]

In my experience, a turn donk at small stakes by a retarded but not drunk opponent screams of a monster, so with reads I might even lay down here. expecting a set a T9. However raising and checking behind in a large pot is also an option that I would consider.

JT /images/graemlins/spade.gif

Raise/fold to a three bet.

*bump*

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think that this might be a spot where as the pot becomes larger it becomes more correct to just call.

[/ QUOTE ]

hmm. In a big pot, getting three bet becomes expensive. We have to see the river because of pot odds and we might even make a crying call on the river (because the pot is so big). If the pot were smaller, we could raise/fold to a three bet.

close??

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes; this is part of it. I'll find time to post later.

[/ QUOTE ]

Have you found that time to post yet Jason? /images/graemlins/smile.gif I'd love to hear your thoughts.

[elindauer]

With the 3rd guy involved, raising looks like hands down the best play. Make the third guy fold a pair and save yourself the pot on the river.

my 2 cents.
Eric

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
I think that this might be a spot where as the pot becomes larger it becomes more correct to just call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? The larger the pot, the more correct it should be to raise and give yourself the best chance to win. You want to drive out that third guy to elliminate any draw he may have.

-Eric

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
Cold caller called the flop getting ~5:1, what's he now going to fold in the face of a raise that you aren't already crushing?

[/ QUOTE ]

Calling with a hand like middle or bottom pair getting 5:1 on the flop is not a terrible play if you feel that your outs are fairly clean, as you can make some arguments for implied odds etc. Making that same call for 2 BBs on the turn is clearly incorrect though.

Whether or not he folds, by the way, is irrelevent. If he calls with bottom pair anyways, then you just make even more money by raising. If you just call you give him the right odds to draw to almost everything, and there are plenty such draws available on this board.

-eric

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
Edited to say that without the LP player in I can just call this down. No need to push a bluffer or middle pair bettor out and we can get to showdown for 2 more BBs.

[/ QUOTE ]

In an 8 BB pot on a board w/ 3 to a broadway straight already, you don't see any reason to raise and make middle pair / gutshots fold?

Personally, I'd raise and bet the river too.

- Eric

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Cold caller called the flop getting ~5:1, what's he now going to fold in the face of a raise that you aren't already crushing?

[/ QUOTE ]

Calling with a hand like middle or bottom pair getting 5:1 on the flop is not a terrible play if you feel that your outs are fairly clean, as you can make some arguments for implied odds etc. Making that same call for 2 BBs on the turn is clearly incorrect though.

Whether or not he folds, by the way, is irrelevent. If he calls with bottom pair anyways, then you just make even more money by raising. If you just call you give him the right odds to draw to almost everything, and there are plenty such draws available on this board.

-eric

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with the overall principle.

But it is highly unlikely in THIS situation that the villian has bottom pair. OR that he has middle pair only (without a draw to accompany it).

[SackUp]

Raise, Raise, RAISE

and fold to a 3.

[ackid]

Im raising.

[toby]

[ QUOTE ]
The donking me twice line really confused me but it led me to believe he didn't have anything.

[/ QUOTE ]

I had a few hands last night against the same guy who repeatedly triple-donked into the preflop raiser on the flop turn and river, often with nothing. This guy was worse than the average Party low stakes player, but his actions add support to the theory that donk bets = weakness.

[MJL]

Lately I've found a that A LOT of players will frequently call a raise thinking your most likely to have AK, AQ, AJ etc and will bet the board if they pair up. Part of this is they hear it is better to be the bettor so if you plan to call a bet you might as well lead. It is not uncommon for aggressive players to react to this with a raise on the flop if UI to slow down the bettor. Knowing this the bettor tends to call and lead again on the turn with his Q. Your opponent has something but you are likely to be ahead. I would follow the line the majority states here, raise and use caution if 3bet.