(Over) - Playing A Mediocrity?

[DanZ]

playing in a very tight 10-20 game online. Very tight, except the UTG player, who is playing at least half the hands if not more (I am pretty new to the game). I have been playing very tight and, played one hand in what appeared to be a very wimpy fashion (flopped an ace with ak, got raised on the flop, and just called it down since a Q came on the turn).

The UTG player limps, 2 players fold, and I raise with KJs.
As planned, it is folded to the BB, who (sadly) calls, and UTG calls.

The flop is K95 rainbow. Check, check, bet, raise, fold...
I decide to call.

The turn is a 2. THe BB bets, and I raise. I raise because there may be a chance he could fold a KJ, and I thought that maybe, just maybe, he might fold a KQ.

If there was no way that he folds the same hand or a better hand, the raise is wrong, unless he will check-fold the river if I just call the turn. He has 2-5 outs if I am ahead, and the pot is too small to turn down a big bet for the risk of a drawout. Furthermore, by just calling, I get 3 outs myself if he has kings up.

So, am I nuts for thinking that he might fold the same or a better hand? Is there a decent chance he check-folds on the end?

I thought the answer was possibly yes to the first and probably yes to the second as well, provided he did not have better than tens (at least, those are the hands I would consider borderline garbage at that point).

Comments appreciated.

Dan Z.

[elysium]

hi danz
well, it's hard to say. usually though, it's better to reraise the flop in this situation.

when your opponent raises into many like that, especially when you've shown early strength, he usually has a made hand although a strong draw is possible. believe it or not, i like capping the flop in this situation in a non-tight game when in LP position, but you don't have that situation here.

KJs in these tight games can usually be mucked when you fail to flop solidly and a tight bettor fires. here, call the raise and check-fold the turn unless you improve.

[skp]

Your analysis is spot on (as usual) but IME, very few players fold K3 here let alone KQ.

...but I am not sure or even reasonably sure of what I just wrote above. As I have often said, reading hands is easy; the difficulty lies in reading minds.

[bruce]

What's wrong with raising the turn and then checking the river unless you improve your hand? In a three handed pot
I certainly would not fold top pair, pretty good kicker, so
playing the hand aggressively on the turn, but slowing down
on the river seems like a pretty good course of action.

Bruce