A clear error

[Acesover8s]

Paraphrasing Roy Cooke 'Bets gained from opponents drawing dead or close to it are much more valuable than bets from opponents who are drawing live'.

This is obviously true. So why do no PLO players exploit this?

So many times we jam our top sets against the wrap straight/flush draws and lose the small straight/flush draws, bottom 2 pair, etc.

Live players tend to exploit this a little better, although I feel that for many of them its more of a slowplay philosophy than a maximizing value thing.

Thoughts?

Well, I won't start slowplaying top set for the simple reasons that A. I find that when someone raises me, its more likely either a smaller set, a moderate strength draw (naked nut flush) or a bluff than a monster draw. B. I'm not good enough to tell the difference between middle set and a monster draw.

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So why do no PLO players exploit this?

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Part of this has to be the relative frequency with which this situation occurs. In LHE or NLHE, it isn't that odd to be an 80% or greater favorite on the flop and greater than 90% on the turn, even in multiway pots.

This just isn't the case very frequently in PLO. When it is and you are sitting on the nut overfull, you just aren't getting action from straghts and flushes (or straight and flush draws) like you would in HE. Sure, someone may stack themselves with an underfull, etc and in those cases you are exploiting the large equity advantage. The maniacs that do give action drawing dead tend to go broke pretty quickly.

Where does this live slowplaying mentality come from? Is the inherent risk offset by the ability to gain more information through better reads?

Interesting post and something I will think about when betting. I typically play $25 and $50 PLO. If there are 4+ players staying in after the flop, which is not uncommon, several are drawing thin. I want them to stay in. The good players with strong multi-way draws won't fold regardless and (at these levels) are unlikely to reraise.

I have the habit of jamming the pot on the flop to protect good but vulnerable hands, like top set. Maybe I should slow down on the flop (still bet, but not pot and re-pot, etc., to create an all in fest) and start pushing harder on the turn. This might get more money on the flop from those drawing thin and slowly build the pot for a large pot size bet or re-pot if the turn card is a brick.

Maximizing value versus a large number of post-flop opponents is hard to do at PLO. At the lower levels, someone (several, perhaps) will stay in and run you down unless you have nut redraws, no matter how hard you try to get them out. Maybe this isn't such a problem at higher levels. I'm still working my way up. ...

Betting for value earlier in the hand may have some benefits. It will allow me to get away from a hand easier and cheaper if a bad turn card hits and (hopefully) will reduce variance. While I wouldn't be extracting every last cent from my opponents when the draws don't get there, in the long run I tend to think I might come out ahead. The dead money going in the pot could be more than the losses when I get run down by a collection of 5 morons.

I don't have time to think through this entirely right now (at work). My gut says an approach like this might work against a lot of opponents, but the fewer the opponents the more you should charge the maximum for draws post-flop.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

what i want to know is.... how do you tell the difference between middle set or naked flush draw from the monster wraps? thats why i fastplay everything and try to get my money in as quickly as possible.

IMHO, the only way you can tell is if the guy is tight and skilled. Say he bets, you raise and he pops you back. He can't have top set, so with this kind of player he should be scared of running into it. When he reraises, he's telling you he's not worried about it. But by this time, so much money is in the pot that you're going to stack off anyway. (unless you decide to call and wait for a safe turn) But to be honest, monster draws are rare, so usually I assume I'm not against one.