Top set is boss in omaha, right?

[rtrombone]

A little while ago there were some posts discussing the value of sets in omaha. Somebody wrote that sets were long-term money-losers. This person had to have been talking about sets in omaha hi/lo, right? I can see how top set, by itself, can be a weak holding against someone drawing to both the nut high and lo.

In omaha hi, though, despite the multitude of draws you can flop with 4 hole cards, top set is still pretty much the most desirable hand, right? Assuming there isn't a made straight or flush, of course.

I ran a couple sims on twodimes. Here are the results.

pokenum -o td 8d 9s 9h - ah as ks qh -- ac 9d 7d
Omaha Hi: 820 enumerated boards containing Ac 9d 7d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
9s Td 8d 9h 415 50.61 405 49.39 0 0.00 0.506
As Ks Ah Qh 405 49.39 415 50.61 0 0.00 0.494

This is top set vs. middle set + a straight-flush draw. Top set is a slight underdog, but it's damn close.

pokenum -o 8s 9s jc qc - ks kc 2s 3c -- 7d th kh
Omaha Hi: 820 enumerated boards containing 7d Kh Th
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
9s 8s Qc Jc 446 54.39 374 45.61 0 0.00 0.544
Ks 2s Kc 3c 374 45.61 446 54.39 0 0.00 0.456

This is top set vs. a 20-out wrap. Top set is again an underdog, but not my much.

I couldn't think of any other scenarios in which top set should worry. If these are the only hands that are mathematical favorites over top set, should you be willing to get it all-in every time when your top set is the nuts at the flop, heads up?

[rtrombone]

Top set vs. wrap AND flush draw

pokenum -o 8d 9s qh jh - ks 2s kc 3c -- 7d th kh
Omaha Hi: 820 enumerated boards containing 7d Kh Th
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
9s 8d Qh Jh 501 61.10 319 38.90 0 0.00 0.611
Ks 2s Kc 3c 319 38.90 501 61.10 0 0.00 0.389

Even here, top set will win almost two out of every five times.

[BB King's]

... TopSet is Good !

If these are the only hands that are mathematical favorites over top set, should you be willing to get it all-in every time when your top set is the nuts at the flop, heads up? Not only heads up - I guess !?!

[Ray Zee]

all well and good if you can get it all in for sure early on. but usually you cant and will get outplayed by the draw.
but overall top set is a moneymaker if played properly. give a weak player top set everytime and he will go broke for sure.

[Zeno]

Top set is a good hand but if you are playing reasonable cards that are well coordinated you "usually" have extra outs that enhance your hand. For example, say you have 10,10,9,8 on the button and call a medium-size raise and the flop is 10, 6, 2 - rainbow.

The problem comes when players start holding onto Pairs with bad side cards, hoping to flop top set and then jam the pot against board cards that will usually kill them. I see this often. For example, someone on the button calls a raise with J /forums/images/icons/heart.gif J /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif 6 /forums/images/icons/heart.gif 4 /forums/images/icons/club.gif. Flop is J /forums/images/icons/club.gif 10 /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif , 8 /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif. Then they jam the pot. If you do this against good players you will lose big over the long run, especially in a full table game against large stacks and multiple opponents.

Heads up is a bit better but many players really stretch this out too far and start playing out of position or calling large prefop raises with "two card" holdings (pairs,XX) like my example above. And they usually do this in the hope of " flop that top set". This is a death march in pot-limit, in my opinion.

-Zeno