Bubble...These situations are way too tempting

[sofere]

At work so doing this from memory, but its pretty clear in my mind.

Big stack has been minraising often and generally folded when played back at. But no one's really played back at him in this blind level (because of the shorty)

Blinds at 150/300
Stack Sizes before blinds:
CO 4500
Hero 1700
SB 700
BB 3100

Hero Dealt AQo
UTG minraises to 600.

If pushed to I instafold here. Is there any way I can play this hand here?

I move all in here everyday and twice on sunday. The blinds are starting to eat you up, and I think most often you're up against either a mid pair or more likely an A worse than yours.

[sofere]

[ QUOTE ]
I think most often you're up against either a mid pair or more likely an A worse than yours.

[/ QUOTE ]

Or about 35897683 other hand possibilities...his range is really wide here

[Postiga]

If the BB calls he halves his stack, so I don't think he's calling with live cards a lot. If the SB calls you're probably dominating or 50/50. I'm delighted to go all-in here.

[tigerite]

Eh? And what about if UTG calls, which he will, like, 99.9% of the time?

Are people just not reading the action, or what?

[tigerite]

[ QUOTE ]
I move all in here everyday and twice on sunday. The blinds are starting to eat you up, and I think most often you're up against either a mid pair or more likely an A worse than yours.

[/ QUOTE ]

It would be absolutely horrendous to go all in here if UTG put 22 face up and said he was going to call you if you push. How can you not know this?

[tigerite]

As for me. Well, obviously, this is a fold most times. There is however one caveat. If you push and beat UTG, you now become the big stack with a micro stack to act after you, whom you can keep alive by folding your SB to his BB, all the time pushing the other two over him so they have to fold. However, this depends on SB being at least sensible and not a bloody idiot who will call your next push with any Ax or whatever. But to be honest the bubble probably won't last long enough to make this increase in future +$EV worth it, so you should probably fold here.

[Postiga]

Crap, I read it as hero was UTG and it was he who min-raised. But, I don't think the big stack is calling a reraise anythink like 99.9% of the time, and if he does call, I like how AQ fares against his hands. Also, I don't want to end up getting to heads up with 2000 chips against the big stack.

[tigerite]

Oh dear. People, please, understand ICM and stop posting this kind of stuff.

He will call the vast majority of the time. That's all that matters.

[Postiga]

I'm sorry but I have to disagree, I think he's folding quite a lot, even if he's wrong by doing so. And if he calls I think I like the probability that he has Ax. Lastly, I hate folding into the money. There's no guarantee that if you fold you'll even make the money. You only have twice as many chips as the short stack, and you'll get the blinds before he does.

[Winwood]

Hi tigerite,

Do you mean he will call the vast majority of the time if he understands ICM, or he will call whether he does or not?

[tigerite]

Come on, he has to call 1100 to win (600+300+150+1700) = 2750. Do you people really think he's going to fold a lot?

By ICM, he certainly shouldn't fold a lot. I think he would only need to win in the region of 38-40% of the time to call, actually.

We have been given a read by the OP remember:

[ QUOTE ]
Big stack has been minraising often and generally folded when played back at.

[/ QUOTE ]

Therefore it's unlikely he calls 99.9% of the time as stated...

[tigerite]

LOL I was way out. Try under 33%. Still think he's folding?

If he has something like 97s here, he should even call.

[kevkev60614]

I think you need for him to fold about 40% of the time to make a push right.

[tigerite]

[ QUOTE ]
We have been given a read by the OP remember:

[ QUOTE ]
Big stack has been minraising often and generally folded when played back at.

[/ QUOTE ]

Therefore it's unlikely he calls 99.9% of the time as stated...

[/ QUOTE ]

Considering the only person who has likely been "playing back at him" is the current BB (look at the stacks), that is an entirely different situation.

[Winwood]

[ QUOTE ]
LOL I was way out. Try under 33%. Still think he's folding?

If he has something like 97s here, he should even call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even if he should call with 97s that doesn't mean he will. This was what I was getting at with my question earlier. BTW do we know the buy-in? I didn't see it, but if this is a 10 or 20 (and add OP's read of this player) I think there's a good chance of this player making a mistake and folding something like 97s or maybe something even stronger

If he had made a normal 3xbb raise, he'd be facing an 800 call to win 3050.

This should make you realize that any raise from the big stack basically prices him into the pot and is essentially an all-in play.

[Postiga]

The thing that's influencing me the most is that you're effectively also a shortstack, and if you keep folding the "real" shortstack could overtake you before you know it. He goes all next hand with JT, the BB calls with 8 5 and loses, and all of a sudden you're a favourite to go out next. Say the short stack went out next hand. With you're current stack you'll have very little fold equity when the blinds go to 200/400, especially if you don't steal before you're next session in the blinds. Win this pot and you can make a run at first, which is "where all the money is".

[tigerite]

Correct. That's what I was trying to say, but people still think he will fold getting almost 3:1 odds - even with him "min raising" instead of the standard 3xbb.

Also, the fact he's been played back at may make it even more likely he has a hand here, because maybe he's fed up of it. At the least, I think it makes it more likely he'll fold just to show the others "I will make a stand now, so don't do it again". Let's be honest, even losing here doesn't hurt him very much at all.

[tigerite]

[ QUOTE ]
The thing that's influencing me the most is that you're effectively also a shortstack, and if you keep folding the "real" shortstack could overtake you before you know it. He goes all next hand with JT, the BB calls with 8 5 and loses, and all of a sudden you're a favourite to go out next. Say the short stack went out next hand. With you're current stack you'll have very little fold equity when the blinds go to 200/400, especially if you don't steal before you're next session in the blinds. Win this pot and you can make a run at first, which is "where all the money is".

[/ QUOTE ]

ICM takes account of the whole "play for first, settle for 3rd" stuff - pushing this is not "making a run for first" - it's losing money. That's all there is to it. Have you not noticed the SB is actually shaving off 150 of his stack in this hand, so he's down to virtually a third of your stack anyway?

You really have some big leaks if you think this is a push. And I love to be at a table with people like you who go all-in with AQo to a big stack minraise when I have 2bb left here, because win or lose, you're handing me money on a plate without me even having to do anything. Think about that.

[ QUOTE ]
The thing that's influencing me the most is that you're effectively also a shortstack, and if you keep folding the "real" shortstack could overtake you before you know it. He goes all next hand with JT, the BB calls with 8 5 and loses, and all of a sudden you're a favourite to go out next. Say the short stack went out next hand. With you're current stack you'll have very little fold equity when the blinds go to 200/400, especially if you don't steal before you're next session in the blinds. Win this pot and you can make a run at first, which is "where all the money is".

[/ QUOTE ]
You almost make it sound like the short stack is a favorite despite the fact that you have twice his stack.

[tigerite]

More like three times his stack, zabt.

[sofere]

Sorry...its a $55 buy-in. So I think its pretty likely he'll call here a push here. When he was getting played back at previously, the stack to blind ratios were higher.

The more I think about it, the more I'm confident the fold was right.

Next question...if I was the player in the BB should I push AQ (what range should I push)?

One more question...What if blinds are going up to 200/400 next hand? Or if Blinds were 200/400 that hand?

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

What logic would make you not push here?

[tigerite]

The fact that he needs to be a 65% favourite when called?

[downtown]

[ QUOTE ]
If pushed to I instafold here. Is there any way I can play this hand here?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, you can't play it. I would instantly muck. The problem lies in the fact that you don't have enough chips to "play back" and make biggie fold without giving him great odds to call. This is explained well by tigerite, I just wanted to reinforce that you must fold here.

[kamelion44]

What's wrong with calling?

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If pushed to I instafold here. Is there any way I can play this hand here?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, you can't play it. I would instantly muck. The problem lies in the fact that you don't have enough chips to "play back" and make biggie fold without giving him great odds to call. This is explained well by tigerite, I just wanted to reinforce that you must fold here.

[/ QUOTE ]
Wait. It can be right to make a play even though you know your opponent will correctly call. I don't know if this is one of those situations, but the mere fact that someone will be getting good odds does not in itself make a play bad.

[tigerite]

This isn't one of those situations, seeing as when he calls, you'd have to be a 65% favourite against his range. Unless you consider the $EV you pick up when you win, and can bully the bubble, is worth it. I personally don't think it is here.

[ QUOTE ]
This isn't one of those situations, seeing as when he calls, you'd have to be a 65% favourite against his range. Unless you consider the $EV you pick up when you win, and can bully the bubble, is worth it. I personally don't think it is here.

[/ QUOTE ]
I could easily have mixed things up, but I thought this sub-thread was now talking about the same question from the point of view of the short stack. (I don't think you're talking about the short stack calling, because winning wouldn't allow him to bully the bubble.)

Edit: Yep, I'm confused.

[tigerite]

Oh, I see what you mean. If Hero folds and the SB calls/moves all-in or whatever? Hmm, that is a more tricky decision.

I think the small blind should be pushing over the min-raise with a wide range of hands (easily including AQ) even though the big stack is nearly 100% to (correctly) call.

[tigerite]

Oh, definitely. I think his range should be pretty wide here. I'll have to ICM it to find out how wide.

[Postiga]

[ QUOTE ]
Have you not noticed the SB is actually shaving off 150 of his stack in this hand, so he's down to virtually a third of your stack anyway?



[/ QUOTE ]

I took it to mean that he had 700 after posting. If not, then I'd feel a lot better about folding. I probably would fold in fact.

But if he has 700 after already posting the blind, it still feels like a raise to me. Someone said I was making it sound as if the short stack was a favourite to finish 3rd. Well to me you're arguments make it sound as if we're guaranteed to finish 3rd if we fold.

Is it possible that ICM can be wrong? I would trust my intuition over a computer program that can't possibly be perfect.

Lastly, I'm well aware that I'm making the short stack a huge amount of money by going all-in here, that doesn't mean that I'm not making money for myself at the same time.

Edit: Of course, you're right tigerite, the stacks add up to 10,000. I completely stand by my analysis though.

[Winwood]

[ QUOTE ]
...its a $55 buy-in.

[/ QUOTE ]

This makes a big difference. You can tell I'm an 11 player /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Big stack has been minraising often and generally folded when played back at. But no one's really played back at him in this blind level (because of the shorty)

He doesn't need to be 65% when called. He's got more than enough fold equity to make pushing with AQo correct 4-handed. It's tempting to fold into the money here, but in light of the above read, I'd come over the top here most of the time.

[tigerite]

You seem to have missed

I think its pretty likely he'll call here a push here. When he was getting played back at previously, the stack to blind ratios were higher.

[sofere]

So how often do you think he has to fold for this to be profitable then? Someone said 40% but I think thats really too much.

[tigerite]

A lot. At least 25%, and I think 33% is probably more like it.

[kevkev60614]

[ QUOTE ]
So how often do you think he has to fold for this to be profitable then? Someone said 40% but I think thats really too much.

[/ QUOTE ]

I estimated 40% because if he's folding that much, you're probably not going to win 65% of the hands. More like 60%, I'd guess.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

I guess I did. I still have trouble folding a hand as good as AQ 4 handed to a minraise, even with another stack being so short. I also have a tough time convincing myself that the raiser will fold AJ. If he will, he'll also likely fold KQ and all pairs <88. If I adopting the attitude that I'm here to win the tournament and not just make the money I have to push here.

I think it's a wash, the lower your fold equity, the higher your showdown equity. Unless you think he's raising with an really narrow range, I see pushing as +CEV over folding.

[tigerite]

What has +CEV got to do with it?

[Scuba Chuck]

I call here. And fold when I don't improve on the flop. I think you'll be surprised at how often bigstack will check the flop if checked to, and bet the turn instead.

[sofere]

I can definitely see the value of calling, but I'm hesitant to put in 35% of my stack, when I'm gonna be folding postflop about 70% of the time.
What do u do in this situation when the flop is KQ6?
If I had 1 or 2 more BBs, I would consider this.

Also, I don't remember, but I think the blinds would have gone up by the next time I was in the BB, which would put me in quite a predicament.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

because unless you can demonstrate that it's -$EV, that's all that matters.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

My gut here is that if the big stack folds at least 1/3 of the time I make more in the long run by pushing than by folding. In that case I'm at worst a 3:2 dog if called and i think that's even giving his calling range too much credit.