15/30 AJ in SB, 3bet to isolate gone wrong

[SackUp]

Button is a laggy agro 40/15/1.7
MP is 36/7/1.2

I was hoping to isolate button and get it HU. Though, obviously less likely given MP's stats, but I should still be fair above his range. We like?

I think the flop is fairly standard, but what about this Turn and River?

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button caps</font>, Hero calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (13 SB) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP2 calls, Button calls.

Turn: (9.50 BB) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, Button folds, Hero calls.

River: (13.50 BB) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 15.50 BBjavascript: x()
Email

[jgorham]

It is really hard to put MP on any hands besides 22 or A8s IMO. Against those two hands you have 3 outs (6vs A8s - 3 combos, 0 against 22, 3 combos) and are getting 12.5 to 1, which makes a fold. If you think there is any way MP gets to the turn with 88 it is even more of a fold.

Also, with MP's numbers, I think the odds of him making a random bluff on the pot are roughly equal to the odds of a passive AQ or slowplayed AA or QQ. It would definitely be pertinent to know what his went to showdown numbers are as well. Fold this turn.

[BigEndian]

It looks like MP2 sucked out 2-pair on you. I call down when I'm playing an average game. Sometimes conditions are right where I can muck to the turn raise.

The PF 3-bet is isolation + value.

- Jim

If the odds of him making a random bluff on the pot are equal to the odds of ap assive AQ or slowplayed AA or QQ, then given the size of the pot, why not call him down?

Argun

[jgorham]

Yeah I definitely misspoke in my previous response. What I meant to say is that the odds of a random bluff (including marginal hands worse than heroes) are offset by the odds of a slowplayed monster from PF. Clearly that is a bit of an assumption - and one that is quite hard to quantify mathematically - but based on my experience it seems accurate.

[Dazarath]

Unless MP2 is known to make ridiculous bluffs, I fold this some amount of the time.

Another note, with a PFR of 6, I don't see AQ as being unprobable and with a VPIP of 36, I don't see Q8 as unprobable either.

[jgorham]

In either case, knowing villains went to showdown% would really help determine the odds of him having A8, Q8 or 88.