Comm 40/80: Not sure where I'm at

[ShawnHoo]

Great Commerce 40-80 Friday night.

A couple of people fold. A very loose, live player raises in MP. Folded around to the button, who 3-bets. Button, for the Commerce regulars here, is the son of a famous actor. He's a regular in the Comm 40/80 and similar Vegas games. My read is that he's not great, not bad. Very aggressive to a point, not super crazy, but has a bit of a temper and can steam a bit if he loses a hand or two. He lost a hand a few minutes ago.

SB folds. I call in the BB with 8c8h.

Flop: 2s 3c 4c

I check, MP bets, button raises. I 3-bet, MP calls, button caps. I call, MP calls.

Turn: Jc

I check, MP checks, button checks.

River: Ac

I check, MP checks, button bets. Fold, call, check-raise? Thoughts up to this point? I felt pretty lost once button capped the flop.

[TheBusiness]

I'm not sure where you're at here either, but the pot is big enough that it's worth a call. You have a flush on an unpaired board...I think its worth 1 big bet to win an 11.5 big bet pot, maybe 12.5 if MP overcalls with a losing hand. You have to win the pot less than 1 in 10 times for a call to be good here. A raise is dangerous, because since you have no clue where he's at, you could get 3-bet by a higher club pretty easily.

[mike l.]

first off this is an interesting hand and typical of the sort of sticky situations i end up in in that game all the time.

i think leading the turn and folding to a raise cant be bad. and calling the river is certainly correct given the pot size. dont expect mp to call behind you, he wouldve bet the river if he had a club.

[andyfox]

Button caps the ragged flop then checks when the Jc hits on the turn. To me, that means, most likely, A-K, or, less likely, a pocket pair lower than jacks. Since he checked when the 3rd club hit, that would make Ax-Kc somewhat less likely, and a pocket pair that contains a club also somewhat less likely. The fact that he recently lost a hand and therefore might be steaming a bit, also makes it more likely he's betting the river without a club.

I certainly wouldn't fold. I'd probably call and kick myself for not check-raising when somebody shows down the 9c.

[phish]

[ QUOTE ]
first off this is an interesting hand and typical of the sort of sticky situations i end up in in that game all the time.

i think leading the turn and folding to a raise cant be bad. and calling the river is certainly correct given the pot size. dont expect mp to call behind you, he wouldve bet the river if he had a club.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think leading the turn and folding to a raise is about the worse thing you can do on the turn. Pot is fairly big. What are you trying to do with a turn bet? Unlikely anyone is folding anything that beats you, or probably any club higher than an 8. Are you trying to protect your hand against overcards? There's some merit in that, but this bet and fold strategy here is a great way to get played off a winner by someone on tilt holding AK with the A of clubs. Also, even if you're beat, you may still have outs with your 8 of clubs. Much better to check and then decide what to do.
Bet and fold strategies are horrible in situations when you may have reasonable outs, and a semi-bluff by an opponent is not unreasonable.

[ShawnHoo]

Assuming we check the turn, are we calling if MP bets? If button bets?

[phish]

I probably would not if MP bets and button calls. But likely would otherwise.

[ShawnHoo]

Thanks guys -- wasn't sure if the flop c/r-3bet was spewing or the passive turn/river line was too weak.

Anyway, I called, MP folded, and button showed Ad7d. MHIG.