Odds Of A Flopped Two-Pair Running Into A Flopped Set.

[Solitare]

Scenario: In a $33 tournament you are in the big blind with a garbage hand (two different cards) and check to 2-4 limpers. You flop two-pair on a flop with three different cards. What are the odds that one of the limpers flops a set?

Feel free to make an assumption about what types of hands the limpers are limping with. Or probably more importantly, what % of time each limper has a pair.

I have gone out of three tournaments this way in the last three days. I'd like to know at what level I should set my self-pity dial.

[ohnonotthat]

Unless you flopped top two in each case you'll want to also allow for the possibility of running into a better [two pair].

If you did, or if the board was so ragged (J-6-2) that no sane opponent could have also flopped two pair . . . the Ambien is kicking in - I'll sum it up as best I can /images/graemlins/frown.gif

Work it backwards.

Instead of trying to guestimate how often one or more of your oponents started with a pair, assume nothing about their hand (other then the aforementioned "it wasn't J-2").

If the flop was indeed J-6-2 and you hold J-6, what is the chance that someone holds 2-2 ?

- Seems like a good spot to use the old, "what is the chance that none of them do" method.

- I swear I knew the name for this application just 10 minutes ago. (zzzzzzzzz)

If nobody jumps in I promise you an answer by close of business tomorrow - tho I'll say now that ONCE was unlilkely, twice very much so, and three times . . .

Were I you I might spring for some extra insurance if I had to fly anytime soon.

Nighty-night. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[LetYouDown]

Assuming completely random hands, and 4 opponents you're looking at roughly 4 * 5/C(47,2) or 1.85%.