Custer Hand #2(BP): A8 UTG, 5 handed

[Bill Poker]

what 10 BB, and big stake on BB, is this push standard?

***** Hand History for Game 3176432541 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $200 Buy-in + $15 Entry Fee Trny:18154187 Level:6
Blinds(100/200) - Saturday, December 10, 10:30:20 EDT 2005
Table Table 68768 (Real Money)
Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 5
Seat 2: HERO( $1948 )
Seat 3: muy_malo ( $1580 )
Seat 4: tombanjo ( $1050 )
Seat 5: PaulG37 ( $1228 )
Seat 10: NYCBR900 ( $4194 )
Trny:18154187 Level:6
Blinds(100/200)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ Ad 8d ]
HERO ?


oh, BTW, congratulatios Custer, you are #1 on the LB.

[sofere]

I don't think this is a standard pushing situation per se, but I can see reasons for it.

Big stack is probably gonna be open pushing about every hand so this may be the only time hero has a chance to pick up blinds without contest for a while. Villain is probably gonna put hero on a pretty narrow range of hands pushing from UTG and will likely fold most hands.

All of the other stacks are smaller than hero's with the largest immediately to his left (putting him on the narrowest range), but none are desperate enough to call with garbage.

I think A8 is getting very close to the bottom of his push range here, but given the situation, I like the play.

[xJMPx]

I fold this. If you get called you're a huge dog, and you are getting called here too often with this many left to act. I wouldn't push here until about 5xBB with this hand and position.

I think this is only +EV when everybody is way too tight (or extremely loose?)

[sofere]

[ QUOTE ]
Poster: DevinLake
Subject: Re: Custer Hand #2(BP): A8 UTG, 5 handed

I fold this. If you get called you're a huge dog, and you are getting called here too often with this many left to act. I wouldn't push here until about 5xBB with this hand and position.


[/ QUOTE ]

Don't have SNGPT here cause I'm at work...but I'm curious, what is the $EV if everyone's calling standards were A9-AK, 99-AA (i.e. if you get called your a huge dog). I think it'll make this slightly positive $EV, but not sure.

I think the reason I like this play is that you're likely not to get another chance to pick up some chips for a while. Although I wouldn't make a habit of doing it...especially if anyones shown that their prone to being moderately loose callers or if big stack wasn't stealing incessantly.

Edit: At the $55s or lower i'd fold this about 90+% of the time

[xJMPx]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't have SNGPT here cause I'm at work...but I'm curious, what is the $EV if everyone's calling standards were A9-AK, 99-AA (i.e. if you get called your a huge dog). I think it'll make this slightly positive $EV, but not sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

With everyone having the above range, it is a +0.2% push. So, it is still a fold.

With everyone having an average calling range (66+,ATs+,AJo+) except the big blind that I gave a loose range (44+,A7s+,A9o+,KJs+) you should only be pushing 77+,AJ+ (7%) here.

[schwza]

the guys in the middle are not calling wiht 66.

my first reaction was to fold here.

[xJMPx]

[ QUOTE ]
the guys in the middle are not calling wiht 66.

my first reaction was to fold here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess you are right. I'm use to setting my ranges based on the 22s and 33s where I err on the side of looseness.

This becomes a very close decision the tighter these players are. Above, I said that 99+, A9+ is only +0.2%, but if they are actually a little tighter, like TT+, AJ+ it is actually +0.8%.

I'm still folding this in real time!

[curtains]

Ooops sorry its a fold.

[sofere]

Damn, I thought I was onto something here...I guess I'm not moving up to the $215s any time soon.

[tigerite]

Nah, I would fold this without even thinking about it. Sure if everyone calls like 5% and some blinds with 7% or something maybe it's +$EV, but I just can't see that as being likely.

[Custer]

I agree with most that I should have folded this hand. There seems to be no logical reason for raising. I don't know why I would do such a thing. /images/graemlins/smile.gif Thanks for posting it to point it out to me.

moses