Bluffing the other draw when mine doesn't hit

[Ghazban]

I haven't posted a hand in a while so here's one that might be standard and boring. All my hands are pretty standard and boring so whatever.

Live 2/5 at Foxwoods ($300-$500 buyin). Everybody and their brother stood up half an hour ago to go eat dinner so we're playing 4-handed. In general, other players have recognized the need to loosen up preflop due to the short game but they're folding too much postflop. Effective stacks $600.

Villain makes it $20 UTG, button calls, SB calls, I call in the BB with T /images/graemlins/club.gif 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif

Flop: K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif ($80)

SB checks, I check, UTG bets $40, button folds, SB folds, I call.

UTG has been pretty aggressive since we got short but I think he's been catching cards (tough to say as not much has gone to showdown). This 1/2 pot bet is automatic if he has any piece of the board at all but he'd probably check something like 88 or 77 with 4 people in. He hasn't shown down any aggressively played draws but that doesn't mean he hasn't been semibluffing.

Turn 3 /images/graemlins/spade.gif ($160)

I check, he bets $100, I call.

I'm almost positive he has at least a king here. I think he'd take the free card on a diamond draw and would bet more on either the flop or turn (or both) if he flopped the nuts.

River: 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif ($360)

I bet $250.

[Marlow]

I think this is all about your image and how you've been playing draws. Do you typically make a call with a flush draw only getting 2.6-1 on the turn here? If you are representing the str8 draw as well, then I think it also depends on how you've been playing superdraws. (If you've been aggressive with them, I'm not sure you line here has sold your hand as a superdraw)

Also, have you seen him make big calls?

FWIW, I think this is pretty interesting...

[Ghazban]

I almost never check/call flush draws because they have little to no implied odds. However, lots of players would do exactly what I did with a diamond draw (i.e. chase at bad odds OOP, then come out betting whent hey hit) so I expect to have some credibility here. I had shown down very little the entire session (probably 3-4 hands max in the 3 hours I'd played with this player, including the full ring stuff). I showed a semibluff raise to the table a couple orbits ago (I had an OESD on the button against a LAG) but have been either winning pots with raises earlier in the hand or folding prior to the showdown (or mucking at showdown).

[Marlow]

[ QUOTE ]
I almost never check/call flush draws because they have little to no implied odds. However, lots of players would do exactly what I did with a diamond draw (i.e. chase at bad odds OOP, then come out betting whent hey hit) so I expect to have some credibility here. I had shown down very little the entire session (probably 3-4 hands max in the 3 hours I'd played with this player, including the full ring stuff). I showed a semibluff raise to the table a couple orbits ago (I had an OESD on the button against a LAG) but have been either winning pots with raises earlier in the hand or folding prior to the showdown (or mucking at showdown).

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this looks Ok as long as he's able to lay something as big as 2 pair down. I think your folding equity here is quite good.

Be sure to post results later...

[emil3000]

Hmm, I'd fold the flop...

[jkkkk]

I fold both pre-flop and on the flop.

[emil3000]

Preflop is definitely worth calling. Three people in already with good relative position and a decent hand.

[jkkkk]

Good relative position? Hes 2nd to act on all streets.

Good hand?

I like it multiway in position in unraised pots, I don't think this is much of a great spot to be playing T8s in. Although I can only imagine how bad these players are, so it was probably correct to call, under normal conditions, I'd fold.

[emil3000]

I mean relative position to the raiser, meaning he is effectively last to act on the flop. Obviously not as good as the real thing, but at least something.

[jkkkk]

[ QUOTE ]
I mean relative position to the raiser, meaning he is effectively last to act on the flop. Obviously not as good as the real thing, but at least something.

[/ QUOTE ]

whaaa...

pfr (UTG) has position on Hero here... or am I missing something /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[jhall23]

There are 2 types of position absolute and relative. Realtive just means your position to a specific player in most cases a pre-flop raiser. Indeed your act before the raiser here, but you get to see show the whole field acts after the raisers flop action before it gets back to you so that is viewed as good relative postion. It will allow you to gain lots of info about peoples hands. Of course you would also have good realtive postion if you were button and someone opened up UTG with several callers in between. In that case you would have good realtive and absolute position.

C&R discuss this in No-Limit/Pot Limit poker.

[yvesaint]

mmmm i dont like the turn call if your plan is to bluff diamonds/value bet A/9

if an A falls, i dont see how he can really call any sort of river value bet without 2pair or better, and he definitely might tempt himself into calling with 2pair/better even if a diamond hits and you bet out.

[BobboFitos]

make sure your opponent can read the board

[TheWorstPlayer]

Fold preflop. Check/raise river. People usually pay off the river vb here.

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold preflop. Check/raise river. People usually pay off the river vb here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is horrible!!!

This is an easy call, live 4handed no way am I not seeing a flop. And checkraiisng the river is bad, as it's likely he'll check behind with a million hands, the only way to win the pot is to bet. The turn call is loose.

[Bukem_]

I call preflop, fold the flop.

[emil3000]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold preflop. Check/raise river. People usually pay off the river vb here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your blind play seems pretty tight from what I've seen in your posts here, what are the results(poker tracker stats)?

[Ghazban]

[ QUOTE ]
mmmm i dont like the turn call if your plan is to bluff diamonds/value bet A/9

if an A falls, i dont see how he can really call any sort of river value bet without 2pair or better, and he definitely might tempt himself into calling with 2pair/better even if a diamond hits and you bet out.

[/ QUOTE ]

If we change my hand to Td8d, I have immediate odds to call on the turn for my 15-outer even if I get no more money on the river. Without Td8d, I actually have 17 "outs" as there are 2 extra diamonds in the deck that I can use. So on the turn I'm getting 2.6:1 on a 29:17 (~1.7:1) shot at winning the pot. Of course, this needs to be discounted some as board-pairing diamonds (particularly the Qd) aren't necessarily any good and there is not a 100% chance of him folding to a scare card but I think the call is well within the bounds of profitability, not to mention the donk image I can get if the river bricks, it goes check/check and I have to show my hand first.

I actually felt the most interesting thing in the hand was not the line, but the size of the river bet. What's the minimum bet here that will get a competent (but not great) opponent to fold two pair (arbitrarily picked as a holding for him as it seemed most likely at the time)?

[TheWorstPlayer]

[censored] because I tilt and push preflop with 23o out of the blinds all the time.

[Allinlife]

fold flop sir

[emil3000]

/images/graemlins/frown.gif

[ahnuld]

I fold flop or turn and I like the river.

[wtfsvi]

He reraises his blinds relentlessy when he plays against me. At least until I know it's him /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[wtfsvi]

[ QUOTE ]
I fold flop or turn and I like the river.

[/ QUOTE ] I agree. I don't like pulling these stunts on flop and turn when you're OOP.

[emil3000]

He's one of those anonymous [censored]. I wonder if I've played against him. What was your old skin name TWP?

[UOPokerPlayer]

By saying that players are folding too much post-flop, does this mean that villian will fold a king to your bet at least 1/2 of the time? I don't really understand the turn play, you're not getting odds to draw, so you're relying on villian to give you a lot of money on the river when you hit a pretty obvious draw. It's got to be one or the other, either villian is loose/passive/stubborn so that he'll pay you off and that justifies your turn call, or villians folds too much postflop and that justifies your river bluff. For your line to work, you have to have it both ways.

I probably check/fold turn because your draw is pretty obvious. I actually might lead the flop here, and see if I can take it down there before. If i got myself to that river I'd make your bet.

[fanmail]

It seems I may be the only one, but I actually like the play. I might like it even more if you had position, he bets the river and then you raise big. You do need a pretty good read on your opponent to make this play though. A big river bet is scarier at small & medium stakes, this play may get sniffed out by a tough player, so as I said, read dependent.

[TheWorstPlayer]

It's not really a secret that I am Nefartiti on skins and still play there 90%. Feel free to sit at my tables. I'm a donation machine. I'm sure plenty of 2p2ers have benefited from my 12K of downswing over the past two months. (There was some upswing in the middle, so it's not like I'm -12K over 2 months. But close enough to hurt.)