Individual Events vs. Long Term Expectations

Hey guys, I was thinking about this last night and I know there is reasonable logic behind it and maybe I am just in the argumentative mood. Here is my question....

When determining EV we will often refer to the percentages on a long term basis saying this is how it is supposed to happen in the longterm. BUT is this the most correct way to see it b/c each individual turn and river are their own events and each hand is its own event, so do we not allow for dissapoint by knowing I have 70% pot equity in three straight hands and then lose all three.

Sorry if this sounds retarded, but i am having difficulty putting my thoughts into words. Basically why use long term in our reasoning when each hand is played out in the short term.....

PS didnt exactly know which forum to ask this in.

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why use long term in our reasoning when each hand is played out in the short term

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Because the fact that you won the last time 100% of the time doesn't make the decision right, and the fact that you lost the last time 100% of the time doesn't make the decision wrong, but knowing that you were more likely to win than to lose does make the decision right and knowing that you were more likely to lose than to win does make the decision wrong. The "long-term" interpretation of probability (i.e. that if you run the trial infinity times you win or lose with probabilities p and 1-p) isn't necessary in order to use probability to think through problems and make the right decision.

LOL, wow i wasn't thinking huh.