View Full Version : TT first hand PUSH !
I am about three seats off of the button, middle late position.
Two players limp.
I look down and see 10 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 10 /images/graemlins/spade.gif
Thinking I will give the "double up early or bust out with little time invested" strategy a try, I push.
One fold and then one player calls with 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
My tens hold up and I double up.
Just some supporting evidence for the play. I felt like tens were a decent hand to try this. Not so good that I can play them with confidence on your avarage board but not so bad that a player sensing donkness might call with a worse pair.
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Just some supporting evidence for the play.
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This doesnt work in poker, terrible push.
splashpot
12-12-2005, 01:57 AM
This is terrible. 90% of the time you'll pick up the 25 chip blinds. 9% of the time you'll get called by a hand better than yours. And 1% of the time you'll find an idiot like you did.
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This is terrible. 90% of the time you'll pick up the 25 chip blinds. 9% of the time you'll get called by a hand better than yours. And 1% of the time you'll find an idiot like you did.
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And your point is ??
I either bust out and start a new tourney and have a second chance to get a decent return on my money as I have almost no time invested. Or I double up and have twice the chance of winning this one. So therefore even a slight chance that they call with worse hands makes this a positive EV move.
The first couple hands are a special opportunity. Lots of maniac moves before the feeling that "time is invested and we should play seriously" mood sets in.
I think we should consider the first few hands an opportunity for some special strategy. By hand #5 unless I am seeing lots of madness I would NEVER try this. Hand #1 is different.
Take a look at your hand histories.. the first orbit is idiot land.
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tjh
bigt439
12-12-2005, 02:09 AM
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Take a look at your hand histories.. the first orbit is idiot land.
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You're proving this point way better than any other one.
aLOWdAkING
12-12-2005, 02:12 AM
I haven't played the $5+1s for a long time, but that is probably the only level where it will work at.
gildwulf
12-12-2005, 02:14 AM
Results-based thinking on one sample + pushing TT at lvl 1--> failure
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This is terrible. 90% of the time you'll pick up the 25 chip blinds. 9% of the time you'll get called by a hand better than yours. And 1% of the time you'll find an idiot like you did.
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Well the standard pair of ten plays is not going to net you much return either. 3/4 of the time a JQK or ACE flops. 1/8 of the time you get your set. Not an easy hand to play.
I believe the times I get called by AK-AT and the times I get called by pocket pairs smaller than mine makes this a positive play. Not to mention the short time invested so I can fire up another SNG.
Yes the PUSH looks idiotic, and that is what encourages the call.
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gildwulf
12-12-2005, 02:21 AM
Just because it is easier to play a hand by pushing all-in pre-flop does not mean it is the best way.
splashpot
12-12-2005, 02:27 AM
Let me ask you this. Are you posting this hand here so you can get advice? Or are you just posting it so you can prove how wrong everyone is when they tell you how bad it is?
wiggs73
12-12-2005, 02:33 AM
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Or I double up and have twice the chance of winning this one.
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No.
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So therefore even a slight chance that they call with worse hands makes this a positive EV move.
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No.
splashpot
12-12-2005, 02:36 AM
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Or I double up and have twice the chance of winning this one.
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No.
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So therefore even a slight chance that they call with worse hands makes this a positive EV move.
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No.
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Actually, that first one is true.....isn't it? Twice the chipEV = twice the chance of winning.
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Let me ask you this. Are you posting this hand here so you can get advice? Or are you just posting it so you can prove how wrong everyone is when they tell you how bad it is?
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No I am posting this because the topic has had much discussion in the past and many respected posters support a coinflip chance to double up early on in a tourney.
I was skeptical of such a play, but thought about when it might be useful, and frankly thought that the times it would be useful are limited indeed.
When I was faced with my pocket tens and making the dificult choice of limping for set value, figuring out how many callers I wanted, wondering about how many callers I might get being that I had no reads (first hand), I decided that this might be a good chance for such a move.
So I tried it.
No I am not looking for advice. I am adding a bit of evidence and experience to this forum regarding what they will call with very early in the tourney.
We all play very tight early on and we miss a bunch of donk chips that go in the middle for what may seem like no reason at all. Pushing early makes you look like a donk to the good players and may induce a call from them. And the donks, well they might just call because that is what they do. Usually some one looser than us gets those chips.. at first... till we get those same chips on the bubble.
That is all I was doing was adding some input and perhaps some discussion. I just forgot for a moment that to many users of this forum "discussion" is done with insults and rudeness.
Burno
12-12-2005, 02:59 AM
No offense, but I see a lot of people push 99-JJ early like this, and it's usually done for one reason, no matter how they try to rationalize it. People push these hands because they are uncomfortable playing them postflop.
Since you've thought this through, how often will JJ-AA be in someone else's hand here?
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No offense, but I see a lot of people push 99-JJ early like this, and it's usually done for one reason, no matter how they try to rationalize it. People push these hands because they are uncomfortable playing them postflop.
Since you've thought this through, how often will JJ-AA be in someone else's hand here?
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I believe I had two players plus the blinds who had not acted before I pushed. Chance of JJ-AA is 4/17 per player so there is a pretty good chance. I believe two but maybe three players had limped. I would have to assume that they did not have JJ-AA but that some of the paint was already in play.
The chance of a slowplayed AA, KK by at least the first limper should be taken into account.
The chance that I am against JJ-KK and I win with a set should also be accounted for.
Serious analysis I find useful. Declaring a move as stupid without even a "Do you see why" is not helpful to anyone.
As for playing 99-JJ postflop. Not impossible, not even dificult, but not a guaranteed money maker either. 99-JJ are likely to lose value or percieved value when the flop comes. With 16 overcards the flop is more likely to cloud your perception of your position than improve it. If I end up in position then I can get away from a bad flop with little trouble. If someone calls behind me then it is likely going to take a bet to see where I am at and I have precious few chips for post flop play.
Alternate play suggestions.
Limp to catch a set and trap.
Bet to narrow the field
Fold. /images/graemlins/wink.gif
roundest
12-12-2005, 03:45 AM
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And your point is ??
I either bust out and start a new tourney and have a second chance to get a decent return on my money as I have almost no time invested. Or I double up and have twice the chance of winning this one. So therefore even a slight chance that they call with worse hands makes this a positive EV move.
The first couple hands are a special opportunity. Lots of maniac moves before the feeling that "time is invested and we should play seriously" mood sets in.
I think we should consider the first few hands an opportunity for some special strategy. By hand #5 unless I am seeing lots of madness I would NEVER try this. Hand #1 is different.
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Wow. /images/graemlins/frown.gif
I did not have all that many SNG's in my Pokertracker DB. From what I did have I grabbed the hands from all the times that players went all-in and were called by another player in level one on party.
Here are they hands. They are paired or tripled for hands that are from the same all-in event. These are what they are pushing or calling a push with in level one.
[ Ac, Ah ]
[ Ks, Qh ]
[ Ad, Ac ]
[ Qs, Jc ]
[ 9s, 9c ]
[ 3s, 3c ]
[ Kc, Ks ]
[ 9s, 9c ]
[ Ad, Qh ]
[ 9s, 9c ]
[ Jc, 8c ]
[ 7d, 7c ]
[ Ks, Ts ]
[ Tc, Ad ]
[ Th, Td ]
[ Qs, Ad ]
[ As, Qs ]
[ 8c, 8h ]
[ Qs, Qd ]
[ Th, Ts ]
[ Kc, Jh ]
[ 7c, 7s ]
[ Ks, Ac ]
[ 9s, 9d ]
[ 6h, 6d ]
[ Ah, Ad ]
[ Qd, Kh ]
[ Kc, Ks ]
[ As, Ah ]
[ Jc, Jh ]
[ Kh, Ac ]
[ Ad, As ]
[ Ks, 4d ]
[ Qd, Qs ]
[ Td, Ad ]
[ Jh, Js ]
[ Jh, Ks ]
[ 7d, 7h ]
[ Jc, As ]
I see 11 hands that are better than a pair of tens. Out of the 39 hands that I show that makes them look pretty good.
11 hands that are better preflop.
28 that I tie or beat.
For what it is worth only 23 out of 39 hands are even pairs.
Small sample I know. Anyone else want to add data on preflop all-ins first level only ?
I don't know if there is a simple query or filter to show the data, I just went through tourney by tourney looking for level one hands with a pot of about 1600 2400 or any large pots then brought up the hand history.
Does this support a pocket 10 push ?
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tjh
tigerite
12-12-2005, 05:37 AM
[ QUOTE ]
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Or I double up and have twice the chance of winning this one.
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No.
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So therefore even a slight chance that they call with worse hands makes this a positive EV move.
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No.
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Actually, that first one is true.....isn't it? Twice the chipEV = twice the chance of winning.
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No, because chipEV isn't really a good indication anyway; it's something like 1.8x more likely you'll win by ICM, but I think even that is too high.
tigerite
12-12-2005, 05:39 AM
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I see 11 hands that are better than a pair of tens. Out of the 39 hands that I show that makes them look pretty good.
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Oh jesus, like 39 hands is even any kind of indication..
You played this like poop.
EnderFFX
12-12-2005, 05:49 AM
Four people left, and they will probably only call you with monsters. JJ+/AJs+/AQ+ (i'm guessing for the 10's, for the 5's probably a looser standard). Most of the time you win only the blinds.
I agree with this strategy at the 25/50 blinds and above when winning the blinds adds a significant amount to your chip stack and it becomes more likely that a mid to small pair calls you. (At 25/50, you would gain 175, and if you were at 800, you would add almost 25% to your stack)
I think if you were to try this in the long run, in the lower blinds, you are going to lose more then you gain.
Well, go ahead and try it, and bring us back the results.
jeffraider
12-12-2005, 05:53 AM
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Chance of JJ-AA is 4/17 per player
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Word?
curtains
12-12-2005, 06:37 AM
Lets be honest with ourselves that in a very weak game like the $5's or $10s, this play might not be that terrible. I'd never recommend it, but It may easily be +EV.
It's sure not a recipe for success at higher levels, but when morons will call with any pair, as some will, then it can't be so terrible.
In any case the original poster's attempts to justify his play don't help his cause.
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Chance of JJ-AA is 4/17 per player
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Word?
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oops late night, 4/221 per player.
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tjh
Time is money. If you are ever going to gamble early is better.
Out of 39 hands I was surprised at what trash they were calling with.
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tjh
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