Another TT Hand

Typical 5-10. UTG with whom I never played with before and looked kind of nervous, tight-passive but sensible player, raised for only the 3rd time after playing with him for about 4 hours. Three limpers to me at late MP and I decided to limp with black TT. Folded to BB who called.

Flop K T 8 rainbow. BB checked, UTG bet, MP1 called, I raised, BB folded, UTG made it 3, MP1 looked trapped but called , I capped, both called.

Turn another K. UTG bets, MP1 reluctantly called, I raised, UTG 3-bet again, MP1 mucked. What's my play?

Results later.

[J.R.]

Cap the turn. If he leads the river, call, if checked to on the river, bet and call a check-raise. It sucks if he has KK, but AK is not improbable, even though he only raised 3 times in 4 hours.

[slavic]

Cap it. The only hand that beats you is KK that he could logically have. While I might put him on AK or KK early once the second falls, I think it's hard to automatically say it's KK.

Besides if he has quads you still have 1 out to the bad beat pot. /forums/images/icons/smirk.gif

[Louie Landale]

After 4 hours you shouldn't have any trouble profiling him as "sensibly tight passive". If so, figure he has a good hand when he DOES assert himself.

Fold TT in MP against this player. At best you are even money against his over-cards and you still have to face the field. Call if there is likely going to be a big field and play for your set.

I think you should call the flop 3-bet, hehehe, figuring to raise the turn. But it worked out anyway.

He didn't raise with KT nor K8, so the ONLY hand he can have to beat you is KK; and there is only ONE of them left. Whereas there are 8 ways he can have AK, 3 ways he may have 88, and 6 ways he can be over-playing AA; not to mention the long shot QJ or other draw.

But you can call, hehehe, figuring to raise the river unless an A, K, or 8 comes.

- Louie

[Joe Tall]

I'm unclear to the action did UTG raise or limp preflop?

I capped the turn, he checked-called the river, a blank, showed AKs, and I scooped a nice pot.

When he 3-betted the flop, I narrowed he's likely holding to AA or AK. KK seemed to be slim because, being 'sensible' he would have just called my raise, maybe hoping to trap me on the turn.

It was his only third raise PF in 4 hours.

[Schmed]

At that point I wouldn't worry as much about utg as the guy who is calling.

I would think there is a remote chance that utg has kk but more likely he's got AK and thinks he's got it best. The guy who is calling may have K10s or 8 and is just letting you guys do the work.

Personally I would just go in to check call mode and only because of the caller.

[Joe Tall]

Therefore you didn't limp, you called 2 cold?

Fold preflop.

[J.R.]

After a raise and three coldcallers, with the blinds possibly along, I think the odds are plenty fine to play TT here, especially since you will get the aggressive post-flop action you are looking for if you flop your set.

[J.R.]

When he 3-betted the flop, I narrowed he's likely holding to AA or AK. KK seemed to be slim because, being 'sensible' he would have just called my raise, maybe hoping to trap me on the turn.

How sensible would it be if he misses a check-raise when QJ, 97 or J9 checks behind on the turn? I think many players might foolishly attempt the trickiness you suggest, but the sensible play is to ram when you have the nuts and players playing back at you.

[Joe Tall]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr />
After a raise and three coldcallers, with the blinds possibly along, I think the odds are plenty fine to play TT here, especially since you will get the aggressive post-flop action you are looking for if you flop your set.

[/ QUOTE ]

We have a rock that has raised UTG. Surely you are WAY behind, and at 5:1 preflop to flop a set which is more than likely needed to win, I'd fold JJ and less here. I'm thinking that UTG has QQ+ so are you are saying you would play any pocket pair with the SAME situation and SAME action, here? What's the difference between TT and 33 in this spot?

If I was on the button and got 4 cold callers than, maybe. But I rearly cold call, either 3-bet or get out.

I'm interested in what others think about this debate, good reply btw and hopefully others will join the discussion.

Peace,
Joe

[J.R.]

Surely you are WAY behind

TT was ahead of the UTG rock raiser pre-flop.

What's the difference between TT and 33 in this spot?

TT can flop an overpair, 33 barely can. I agree they are not immensely different, but I have been making more speculative calls with pocket pairs in LP after a raise and many callers, knowing I have:

1) position on the UTG raiser,
2) a pot that will likely have many bets put into it post flop with people betting into me, and
3) many callers seeking to hit an overcard kicker and second pair that will be drawing dead against me when I flop my set.

I agree that this is close and don't reccomend calling raises from UTG rocks very often, but think three coldcallers and the possible addiiton of the blinds and the LP players yet to act makes this a call. Either way, I don't think its a huge mistake nor an obviously huge positive EV play.

[Joe Tall]

TT was ahead of the UTG rock raiser pre-flop.

Out of fairness, I have yet to read any results, but I will now.

OK, TT was ahead, barely:

pokenum -h as ks - tc th
Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ks 786350 45.92 919710 53.71 6244 0.36 0.461
Tc Th 919710 53.71 786350 45.92 6244 0.36 0.539



Either way, I don't think its a huge mistake nor an obviously huge positive EV play.

I don't think it's a huge mistake, but it's still a mistake in my book, AKs, AQs are mostlikely the ONLY hands that UTG holds that you have an advantage on...and at 53.7% you are right, it's not even close to huge EV.

[J.R.]

You sim is meaningless. This hand was not played heads'up. Of course I would fold heads up. You are playing because of the 3 coldcallers and the promise of the blinds or LP players yet to act joining the party.

I only pointed out that TT was ahead because you said you surely could not be, not because that fact, in and of itself, justifies playing here. The EV comes when you flop a set and UTG and you go to war with some fools getting trapped in the middle drawing nearly dead, not from some irrelevant heads'up comparison between two hands when there are at least three other hands in this multiway pot.

[Joe Tall]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr />
You sim is meaningless. This hand was not played heads'up. Of course I would fold heads up. You are playing because of the 3 coldcallers and the promise of the blinds or LP players yet to act joining the party.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think that it is 'meaningless and irrelevant' because it doesn't change the fact that TT is barely a favorite, and our poster was lucky enough to get shown 2 out of the possible 6 hands that rock-UTG would raise with (JJ, QQ, KK, AA, AQs, AKs) I just think this is a borderline call in this exact situation. Strange how no one wants to get involved with us...

</font><blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr />
The EV comes when you flop a set and UTG and you go to war with some fools getting trapped in the middle drawing nearly dead, not from some irrelevant heads'up comparison between two hands when there are at least three other hands in this multiway pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

As our poster got his set and perfect hand to play, and it payed off well. Now, I'm wondering if I should incorporate such play into my game and make a cold call in such a situation. I usually leave such a hand behind.

[J.R.]

Heads'up I think this is a clear fold. I am not trying to be a jerk, I hope I don't come across as such. What makes this playable, IMO, is the extra callers who not only give you better odds preflop, but who will get trapped post-flop for multiple bets when you flop a set in situations when they are drawing thin or dead. That renders the UTG raiser's hand somewhat irrelevant. I'd almost prefer that UTG have a big pair so they can overplay their hand against me when I flop a set and improve my already good implied odds.

Think of why HPFAP reccomends raising on the button in multiway pots with small pairs and suited connectors and why Sklansky reccomends raising ATs from the button in the same situation. One of the reasons is that you build a big pot, and when you flop big, your opponents will make loose calls because of the pot size, such as trying to hit their overcard kicker. But in this instance, you will only continue with a set, so your opponents will be 1) more inclined to make loose calls post-flop, thereby improving your implied odds while 2)drawing pretty much dead when calling with one pair.

That's where I see the profit comming from. You have a UTG pre-flop raiser, so there will be aggressive post-flop action when you play pairs for set value. Yes you will be sucked out on more becuase of the pot size, but I think this can be a profitable situation.

[tj00]

Well here are my two cents and they are probably not worth even that. If this is a +EV situation it is close. I generally try to avoid situations like this and would have folded pre-flop to the tight raiser. Against weak players why wait for better spots to get your money in.

[Joe Tall]

I am not trying to be a jerk,

Please, this forum was built for a discussion like this, I love the debate.

I have made such a play out of the blinds with pairs in a family-cold-called pot but I still think this situation is borderline, which makes for great debate.

Now, answer me this would you play 22-44 in this situation, how about 55-77?

[slavic]

How od you put the cold caller on those hands? I think you are just seeing ghosts of hands that beat you.

[mobes]

While I would have been afraid off KK at first I would have gotten every bet in I could. He could easily have AA or AK. When that second K shows up I would raise at everry opportunity since the MP must have a K, leaving only 1 for UTG.

Nowhere in the post did I say he was a rock. After playing with him for 4 hours, raising for the 3rd time does not necessarily mean he was. His earlier plays were very weak- tight and quite predictable. With a very narrow range of raising hands, TT with several players on board is an easy cold-call, IMO.

[J.R.]

Now, answer me this would you play 22-44 in this situation, how about 55-77?

This is where the logic of my argument breaks down. I would like one or two more callers to play 77-55, and one more again to play 22-44. Although I am playing primarily for set value, I think TT has more value than 55 here, as TT can and will flop an overpair. Maybe its just comfort level, but if UTG raises, 5 players coldcall, I will call with any pair.

[Joe Tall]

Nowhere in the post did I say he was a rock.

Yes, I was the one who said it. However, I think I was right on with his UTG raising standards, quite 'Rock-Like', however, I'm talking about a conventional, 'Rock'. Not are beloved, 'RockLobster', who the hell knows what his raising standards would be..... /forums/images/icons/grin.gif

[Joe Tall]

This is where the logic of my argument breaks down.

AHHHHHHHHHHHHH HA! Only kidding. Great learning experinence form this post. Quite an interesting discussion. Too bad JTG, Homer or Barry didn't have the err, ahem (sack) to chime in.

Nice Post ID4, great debate, J.R.!

Peace,
Joe

[RockLobster]

Yes, I was the one who said it. However, I think I was right on with his UTG raising standards, quite 'Rock-Like', however, I'm talking about a conventional, 'Rock'. Not are beloved, 'RockLobster', who the hell knows what his raising standards would be.....

I'm not so concerned with my raising standards... it's my folding standards that get me in trouble /forums/images/icons/crazy.gif.

I think you're just baiting me so I'll show up at one of your games. Then you'll REALLY have some ammo to use against me. Until then, let it be known that we've never played together, so you're accusations are completely groundless and should be unequivocally disregarded by all (unless you're saying something nice).

See ya!

[J.R.]

So what's your take. Have I convinced you that you can profitably overcall a pre-flop raise with a pocket pair after many callers or not?

[Joe Tall]

Have I convinced you that you can profitably overcall a pre-flop raise with a pocket pair after many callers or not?

You've definately moved me onto the fence. Weather I jump on the horses you'all are ridin', I'm not sure yet. However, it does look like a good ride! /forums/images/icons/grin.gif

[Dynasty]

UTG with whom I never played with before and looked kind of nervous, tight-passive but sensible player

This description of your opponent is definitely wrong. Tight-passive players don't 3-bet the flop with only top pair/top kicker and certainly don't 3-bet the turn after the same player caps the flop and raises the turn.

You misread this player. I think it's a good possibility that this opponent was simply getting a cold run of cards, especially premium hands, and had a false image because of it.

As for the pre-flop decision, the call is close to EV-neutral. The better you play, the more willing you should be to call.

[Dynasty]

This sim is not very useful. You need to see how TT plays with the three cold-callers. If you give them reasonable hands (that's being generous) like 65s, 44, and J9o (one more overcard to TT, you get a better feel for TT's equity in this pot.

As Ks 256099 30.11 593612 69.78 957 0.11 0.301
Tc Th 221893 26.08 627818 73.80 957 0.11 0.261
6d 5d 135432 15.92 714279 83.97 957 0.11 0.159
9s Jd 121825 14.32 727886 85.57 957 0.11 0.143
4c 4h 114462 13.46 735249 86.43 957 0.11 0.135

[Joe Tall]

I actualy ran one after that with 'reasonable' hands, 65s and 55 being two of them and QJo being the other...nearly the same result.

Thanks,
Joe

[Dynasty]

If you fool around with this stuff, you'll see something valuable.

QJ kills TT's equity because all four overcards are out there and live. However, if you put AJ into the mix, TT's value goes up by deadening the Aces a bit and taking away the dangerous Q. If neither a Queen or Jack is in opposing players' hands, TT does great.

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ks 227393 26.73 615843 72.40 7432 0.87 0.271
Tc Th 314420 36.96 534896 62.88 1352 0.16 0.370
6d 5d 139230 16.37 710086 83.47 1352 0.16 0.164
9s Ad 47101 5.54 796135 93.59 7432 0.87 0.059
4c 4h 115092 13.53 734224 86.31 1352 0.16 0.136

[Joe Tall]

VERY NICE!

Should I consider such a cold call in this situation? Do you? I was basing my arguement on UTG's raise, granted not all these situations can be completely explained in this vacuum, however, I believed a set was needed to win and the 3-cold callers were borderline. Now, I'm just starting to incorporate implied odds into my play and it's situations like this I find myself on the fence. I appreciate your help.

Great sim,
Joe