how often does this c/r mean top pair? [Archive]

View Full Version : how often does this c/r mean top pair?

lighterjobs

12-12-2005, 12:49 AM

stats on mp1 are 61/6/.8. i think i might fold to a four bet on the turn.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
1 fold, UTG+1 raises, 1 fold, MP1 calls, 3 folds, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (6.75 BB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 calls, MP1 raises, Hero 3-bets, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls.

River: (13.75 BB) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets, MP1 calls.

Final Pot: 15.75 BB

poker1O1

12-12-2005, 12:55 AM

it really could be any pair trying to get a free showdown, not just the J

hobbsmann

12-12-2005, 01:15 AM

I really like this as you extract a lot of value from top pair hands and folding to a cap is really easy.

An alternate line would be to call and raise the river, but I like this line better since we still have a 3rd player in the hand.

SNOWBALL138

12-12-2005, 01:53 AM

.8 is a high AF for 63 vpip but not THAT high.
I think villain has 66 for bottom boat or some hand like A6 or 67 or T6. Sometimes he has a jack or something that you beat, but not very often.

You are increasing your chance of winning the hand on the turn by about 16% maximum (str8 draw is the biggest draw you could be facing), if UTG+1 has a str8 draw.
16% of the expected pot size by the river is 2.2bb.
2.2bb is nice, eh?
Hold on a minute though. UTG+1 doesn't always have a straight draw, and when he does, he usually won't fold it either! Sometimes utg has a much weaker draw, a hand with a jack in it or a gutshot like T9.

Also, you are often behind once you get checkraised, so you aren't actually increasing your equity by x%*expected river pot size, but rather (x%*y%)*expected river pot size.

X=the amount of equity that UTG has multiplied by the chance that he folds.
Y=hero's equity

I think your equity on the turn is way way too small so your raise loses too much value. If there were no pair on board, a raise would make a lot more sense, because you would want utg+1 to fold a 5-outer, and the chances that you are currently ahead would increase too.
Therefore, calling down is better than raising this turn. Also,you don't want to get reraised because you have outs against 66 (two sevens, and two kings).

12-12-2005, 02:53 AM

61/6/.8 pretty loose passive player. C/R with those stats on the turn looks at minimal trip 7s.