Semi bluff with overpairs + flush draw?

***** Hand History for Game 3186270121 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $30 Buy-in + $3 Entry Fee Trny:18204867 Level:2 Blinds(15/30) - Sunday, December 11, 22:56:11 EDT 2005
Table Table 68934 (Real Money)
Seat 9 is the button
Total number of players : 7
Seat 2: its420yo ( $1080 )
Seat 6: Wolverines8 ( $1945 )
Seat 7: Vance_Bane ( $670 )
Seat 9: yunonymous ( $1440 )
Seat 8: QQcrushinblo ( $950 )
Seat 10: lockman2111 ( $695 )
Seat 4: Magnifico12 ( $1220 )
Trny:18204867 Level:2
Blinds(15/30)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to its420yo [ Qd Jd ]
Magnifico12 folds.
Wolverines8 raises [100].
Vance_Bane folds.
QQcrushinblo folds.
yunonymous folds.
lockman2111 calls [85].
its420yo calls [70].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 3d, 6s, 2d ]
lockman2111 bets [125].
>You have options at Table 68233 Table!.
its420yo is all-In [980]
Wolverines8 folds.
lockman2111 is all-In [470]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 7s ]
>You have options at Table 67059 Table!.
** Dealing River ** [ Kh ]
lockman2111 shows [ 9s, 9c ] a pair of nines.
its420yo shows [ Qd, Jd ] high card king.
its420yo wins 385 chips from side pot #1 with high card king.
lockman2111 wins 1490 chips from the main pot with a pair of nines.

On one hand I dont like taking marginally profitable risks in this stage of the SnG, but its a good hand and if I just call the PF raiser might raise making it an awkward situation on me. If this was a ring game that would've been a largely profitable push but here I dunno... How often should we semi bluff in these tournaments since if we get caught we're out? any thoughts?

Great play...when apporpriate, which is when you KNOW the player. Here you dont...so I cant say I like it.

PS: If anyone says that he should fold QJ pre flop dont bother posting because that has nothing to do with the hand.

EDIT: In further analysis... A caller open's for 125 on the flop. The only reason he would do that is if he thought his hand was the best. And if he thinks his hand is the best he is not folding. So I dont like this play. If it was the original raiser...that would be a different story because of the small bet.

Ok I'll have to get theoretical. Over here let's say I raise all in since I dont know him and the situation is somewhat random on this ragged flop and he's not the initial raiser I'd say I have a certain percentage of getting him to fold right here, 30%? Since it is an all in and all his chips will be jeopardized. Even if he does call me with a hand like he had I have about 15 outs, making me a favorite over him(was it 70%?) So overall this is huge +EV in my opinion. In most of these tournament situations I'm multitabling and won't know my opponents that well but the GAP concept should only help to think that the FE is great here. This sort of situation happens all the time with regards to being all in before the money in SnGs, I'd love it if we could have some meaningful discussion here. Let's say first hand I'm dealt KK and someone unknown goes all in should I not call? lets say his hand ranges is a5+ (and i've seen way worse) I'm a 70% favorite, calling that is a bigger risk than the play I put on I think. Where's line?? Hope everybody followed that paragraph thougth just kinda flowed

[tigerite]

Fold preflop.

[ QUOTE ]

PS: If anyone says that he should fold QJ pre flop dont bother posting because that has nothing to do with the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

That has everything to do with the hand. Fold pre-flop. This play isn't bad if you know the villians PP is 99, but it could be AA for all you know.

Will

Yes folding preflop would be profitable a lot of times. But in most cases with a raise like that I usually have the odds to see the flop with small suited connected broadway.
At this level ppl's raising range varies greatly, and I realize I probably dont have the best hand PF. Villain was not the PF raiser and I didn't credit his PF call for aces. But the reason I posted this hand was to have a discussion on the risk factor associated with this hand. Against pocket 9s i'm a favorite to win and the semi bluff could get him to fold sometimes too. "How often should I take these chances in a tournament is the theme of this post" and while I appreciate the "fold PF" comments please feel free to comment on the actual topic.

You are a 54% favorite to win the hand if you know that he has 99. One problem with the play though is that you cant know that you have two over cards. But if we assume he has 77-1010 then it is obviously a +EV play. So if you somehow rule out that he has a larger pair then 1010 and that he doesnt have AhKh and that he doesnt have a set then I like the play. But there is know way to no that and 77-1010 are IMO the only hands in his range that you are ahead of so I dont think that pushing this is a great idea.

Your estimates are significantly off. I don't think he's going to fold 30% percent of the time, because like one poster said, he is a coldcaller leading out to a preflop raiser. It doesn't matter if you're 10-tabling, this play should be all the reads you need. Also, as one poster pointed out, you're only a slight favorite over 99 an a considerable dog to KK, etc. Having said all that, it still might be a push. If you think the action will unfold exactly like this except for the times when villain folds, there's enough already in the pot to make it a push. And fold preflop.

Part of the problem here is that you don't know what the original raiser is holding. He could be holding AA, KK, QQ, or JJ, all of which have you in a bad spot, and all of which call. You're all-in before he even acts. Don't be too scared of monsters, but if the OR is holding AdKd, he may very well call, and you only have 6 outs against which both players have redraws

As to the pf question, a lot of pf raising hands have you dominated. KQ, KJ, AJ, AQ, and JJ+ dominate you and are common hands to raise/call a raise with in the $11s. If the OR had raised to 90 and it had folded to you in the BB, an argument could be made for calling because you'd be getting 2.25:1 odds on your money, and if you can outplay the opponent post-flop, then it could be a profitable call. However, 3 players post flop, is a completely different animal than 2, especially out of position.

Will

[ravensfan]

I think it was a $33.
And given lockman called oop into a 2 or 3 person hand, i doubt he'd be slowplaying AA, KK, QQ, or likely even JJ or AK
Dominated by a queen is possible, but more likely KQ or KJ or even A6....
i like the play: 15outs, times dominated are probably more than compensated by your FE when he has a hand... besides, even if you know he has 9s, and won't ever fold, you're still the fav and there's a fair bit of money in the pot
besides, having 2g this early (or 1/4 of total chips) has to have some more positive EV (ie bullying potential)...

i do this all the time, even in cash games when i don't have a huge stack, especially when i have AKs and there's a flush draw

Sorry, didn't see that it was $33. Anyway, I'm concerned about the original pre-flop raiser. We have no idea what he's holding. With only 2 in the pot, I don't mind this nearly as much. I think that the third makes a difference, as the original pre-flop raiser could be holding a lot of different things.

Will

[ravensfan]

True, original pf raiser is scary. But even if he calls with AA (and neither is a diamond), you're probably getting pretty good pot odds anyways just drawing to the flush (especially if flop bettor calls - with it unclear ie. 2.5ish it's still -EV, but that's taking the worst case)
I guess Adxd is bad, but it's doubtful original raiser has that unless x=K or 10. And that's pretty unlikely, and he might still want to fold that push.

I like it mainly because it most likely isolates vs. flop raiser who you can put on mid pair, or two overs most of the time ( i don't think a stop n go with that stack works with As or Ks, b/c the idea of the sng is to manufacture FE, and it's a little early to call a suspected sng imo). Also, if you don't isolate and original raiser has a monster, then you have a good chance to be in a 3 way pot with good pot odds.

Ravensfan (still!)

I agree villains play did not indicate high PP but quite possibly small pockets and hit the set. Anyone try ICM here. Even assuming 30% fold on the bettor what % do you put on preflop raiser? Even if you put him at 70% your down to 21% fold to you and you win a modest pot. If your called I don't see you having 15 outs very often. Since you didnt put villian on high pockets his leadout indicates to me flush draw, overcards or a set. If he calls my bet I am most inclined to believe a set is most likely. I don't see a positive expectaction overall in SNG's here. This play is too dependant on FE and early in SNG's that is usually pretty low. If you do hit and double up don't expect much FE for the rest of the tourney. LOL